Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: late_breaking_invalidation
- generated_at: 2026-03-15 03:15 UTC
- sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
- kill_switch_markets_count: 1
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-CU-6H-001 | Over the next 6h, copper futures bias is mixed-to-down as high-authority trade-policy headlines inject near-term demand/flow uncertainty. | 56 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | true | 82 |
| copper | B-CU-24H-001 | Over the next 24h, copper futures retain a mild upside bias from persistent supply-deficit/disruption narratives and structural electrification/grid build-out demand themes, but conviction is capped by policy headline risk. | 54 | up | fading | 24h | true | 82 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_copper_20260315T031500Z_v1",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T03:15:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CU-6H-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, copper futures bias is mixed-to-down as high-authority trade-policy headlines inject near-term demand/flow uncertainty.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"T-001 (Donald Trump: trade policies)",
"T-002 (USTR: trade policy)",
"VIP-001 (EU Commission: trade policies) [single-source]"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CU-24H-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CU-24H-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, copper futures retain a mild upside bias from persistent supply-deficit/disruption narratives and structural electrification/grid build-out demand themes, but conviction is capped by policy headline risk.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-012 (Freeport-McMoRan: disruption and supply crisis)",
"T-023 (Freeport: supply deficits and market outlook)",
"T-008 (Chile: market)",
"T-028 (renewable energy)",
"T-029 (industrial policy and decarbonisation)",
"T-030 (electric grid modernisation and renewable energy deployment)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CU-6H-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": true,
"late_breaking_alert": true,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CU-6H-001",
"B-CU-24H-001"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Very recent (<=2h window) high-authority trade-policy signals (T-001/T-002) oppose slower-moving bullish supply/demand narratives; conviction capped until corroboration."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Near-term policy risk and longer-term supply/demand-tightness narratives are directionally opposed, raising whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_outliers_present",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Multiple VIP items are single-source/echo-risk; treated as low-weight context rather than primary drivers."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while late-breaking trade-policy headlines remain dominant and direction is neutral_mixed with high reversal risk."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If additional high-authority policy updates arrive within the next 6h, expect elevated intraday swings/whipsaw."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If bearish policy narrative persists/accelerates while bullish supply-deficit narratives fail to refresh, downside regime may strengthen."
},
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy pressure fades and supply-disruption/deficit evidence refreshes within 24h, upside bias may reassert with lower fragility."
},
{
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If policy headlines broaden into concrete restrictions/tariffs and are echoed by multiple Tier-A sources, bearish pressure may dominate."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"copper"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 45,
"acceleration_score": 45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -35,
"acceleration_score": -80,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -18,
"acceleration_score": -38,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -35,
"velocity_score": -47,
"acceleration_score": -47,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 35,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 84,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided to 6B; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback.",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggered by very recent, high-authority trade-policy cluster (T-001/T-002) introducing opposing near-term pressure vs slower structural bullish themes."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}