Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: late_breaking_invalidation
  • generated_at: 2026-03-15 03:15 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 1

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-CU-6H-001 Over the next 6h, copper futures bias is mixed-to-down as high-authority trade-policy headlines inject near-term demand/flow uncertainty. 56 mixed accelerating 6h true 82
copper B-CU-24H-001 Over the next 24h, copper futures retain a mild upside bias from persistent supply-deficit/disruption narratives and structural electrification/grid build-out demand themes, but conviction is capped by policy headline risk. 54 up fading 24h true 82

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_copper_20260315T031500Z_v1",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T03:15:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CU-6H-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, copper futures bias is mixed-to-down as high-authority trade-policy headlines inject near-term demand/flow uncertainty.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-001 (Donald Trump: trade policies)",
 "T-002 (USTR: trade policy)",
 "VIP-001 (EU Commission: trade policies) [single-source]"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CU-24H-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CU-24H-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, copper futures retain a mild upside bias from persistent supply-deficit/disruption narratives and structural electrification/grid build-out demand themes, but conviction is capped by policy headline risk.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-012 (Freeport-McMoRan: disruption and supply crisis)",
 "T-023 (Freeport: supply deficits and market outlook)",
 "T-008 (Chile: market)",
 "T-028 (renewable energy)",
 "T-029 (industrial policy and decarbonisation)",
 "T-030 (electric grid modernisation and renewable energy deployment)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CU-6H-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": true,
 "late_breaking_alert": true,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CU-6H-001",
 "B-CU-24H-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Very recent (<=2h window) high-authority trade-policy signals (T-001/T-002) oppose slower-moving bullish supply/demand narratives; conviction capped until corroboration."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Near-term policy risk and longer-term supply/demand-tightness narratives are directionally opposed, raising whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_outliers_present",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Multiple VIP items are single-source/echo-risk; treated as low-weight context rather than primary drivers."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while late-breaking trade-policy headlines remain dominant and direction is neutral_mixed with high reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional high-authority policy updates arrive within the next 6h, expect elevated intraday swings/whipsaw."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If bearish policy narrative persists/accelerates while bullish supply-deficit narratives fail to refresh, downside regime may strengthen."
 },
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy pressure fades and supply-disruption/deficit evidence refreshes within 24h, upside bias may reassert with lower fragility."
 },
 {
 "action": "watch_short_bias",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If policy headlines broaden into concrete restrictions/tariffs and are echoed by multiple Tier-A sources, bearish pressure may dominate."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "copper"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 45,
 "acceleration_score": 45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -35,
 "acceleration_score": -80,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 20,
 "acceleration_score": 20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -18,
 "acceleration_score": -38,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -35,
 "velocity_score": -47,
 "acceleration_score": -47,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 35,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 84,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided to 6B; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback.",
 "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggered by very recent, high-authority trade-policy cluster (T-001/T-002) introducing opposing near-term pressure vs slower structural bullish themes."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}