Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-COFFEE-REVERSAL-001
  • generated_at: 2026-03-15T22:30:57Z
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B1 Near-term coffee futures remain under downside pressure as supply/availability expectations improve (stock recovery + favourable origin weather) following a move to multi-month lows. 62 down fading 24h false 74
coffee B2 Fresh shipping/freight disruption headlines (trade corridors / Middle East tension / rerouting) add upside tail-risk via delay/cost shock, partially offsetting the bearish supply narrative. 46 up accelerating 6h false 74
coffee B3 Medium-term narrative drift points to supply resilience (production/yield improvement) which can cap sustained rallies absent a new weather shock. 55 flat stable 24h false 74

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260315T223057Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T22:30:57Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures remain under downside pressure as supply/availability expectations improve (stock recovery + favourable origin weather) following a move to multi-month lows.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply",
 "crop_conditions",
 "weather",
 "stocks_recovery_narrative"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B2"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Fresh shipping/freight disruption headlines (trade corridors / Middle East tension / rerouting) add upside tail-risk via delay/cost shock, partially offsetting the bearish supply narrative.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "trade_route_disruption",
 "logistics_delay_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Medium-term narrative drift points to supply resilience (production/yield improvement) which can cap sustained rallies absent a new weather shock.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply",
 "structural_supply_resilience"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bearish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "new_bearish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-REVERSAL-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "high",
 "description": "High reversal risk: fresh logistics/shipping disruption signals are directionally opposite the earlier bearish price/supply narrative."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-DATA-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Data sparsity: many admitted trends are cross-commodity/macro/logistics; fewer are coffee-price-specific, raising inference fragility."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-CONTRADICT-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Contradiction overhang elevated: concurrent supply-improving and supply-chain-disrupting narratives reduce single-thesis confidence."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_short_bias",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Bearish bias remains valid while downside drivers (improving supply/stocks + favourable origin weather) dominate and no confirmed export flow disruption hits physical availability."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if additional fresh, higher-authority or coffee-specific shipping disruption evidence arrives within the next 2\u20136 hours (could flip near-term direction from bearish to neutral/bullish)."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain volatility watch while contradiction remains high (bearish supply narrative vs bullish freight-disruption tail-risk)."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if signals remain mixed but both sides are stale/sparsely confirmed (conviction falls below ~45 with fragility above ~80)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 70,
 "net_sentiment_score": -40,
 "velocity_score": -28,
 "acceleration_score": -26,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 72.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": -45,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 23,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 67.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": -35,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 65,
 "net_sentiment_score": -30,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 64,
 "net_sentiment_score": -28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 62.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": -25,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 61,
 "net_sentiment_score": -22,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 60,
 "net_sentiment_score": -20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 59,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 59,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": -15,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.64,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.66,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.67,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.68,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.67,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 23,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 83,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.67,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -45,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bearish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as 'coffee'.",
 "No v2 trend_physics/per-record physics provided to 6B; synthesis used available recency proxies (published/newest timestamps), velocity hints, and contradiction via narrative mixing.",
 "Several high-heat trends are cross-domain (logistics/macro/agri) and only indirectly map to coffee; this elevates fragility and reversal risk."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}