Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-COFFEE-REVERSAL-001
- generated_at: 2026-03-15T22:30:57Z
- sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B1 |
Near-term coffee futures remain under downside pressure as supply/availability expectations improve (stock recovery + favourable origin weather) following a move to multi-month lows. |
62 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
74 |
| coffee |
B2 |
Fresh shipping/freight disruption headlines (trade corridors / Middle East tension / rerouting) add upside tail-risk via delay/cost shock, partially offsetting the bearish supply narrative. |
46 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
74 |
| coffee |
B3 |
Medium-term narrative drift points to supply resilience (production/yield improvement) which can cap sustained rallies absent a new weather shock. |
55 |
flat |
stable |
24h |
false |
74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260315T223057Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T22:30:57Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures remain under downside pressure as supply/availability expectations improve (stock recovery + favourable origin weather) following a move to multi-month lows.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"crop_conditions",
"weather",
"stocks_recovery_narrative"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B2"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Fresh shipping/freight disruption headlines (trade corridors / Middle East tension / rerouting) add upside tail-risk via delay/cost shock, partially offsetting the bearish supply narrative.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"trade_route_disruption",
"logistics_delay_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Medium-term narrative drift points to supply resilience (production/yield improvement) which can cap sustained rallies absent a new weather shock.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"structural_supply_resilience"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B2"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bearish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "new_bearish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-REVERSAL-001",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "high",
"description": "High reversal risk: fresh logistics/shipping disruption signals are directionally opposite the earlier bearish price/supply narrative."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-DATA-002",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Data sparsity: many admitted trends are cross-commodity/macro/logistics; fewer are coffee-price-specific, raising inference fragility."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-CONTRADICT-003",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Contradiction overhang elevated: concurrent supply-improving and supply-chain-disrupting narratives reduce single-thesis confidence."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Bearish bias remains valid while downside drivers (improving supply/stocks + favourable origin weather) dominate and no confirmed export flow disruption hits physical availability."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if additional fresh, higher-authority or coffee-specific shipping disruption evidence arrives within the next 2\u20136 hours (could flip near-term direction from bearish to neutral/bullish)."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain volatility watch while contradiction remains high (bearish supply narrative vs bullish freight-disruption tail-risk)."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if signals remain mixed but both sides are stale/sparsely confirmed (conviction falls below ~45 with fragility above ~80)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"coffee"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 70,
"net_sentiment_score": -40,
"velocity_score": -28,
"acceleration_score": -26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 72.5,
"net_sentiment_score": -45,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 23,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 67.5,
"net_sentiment_score": -35,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 65,
"net_sentiment_score": -30,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 64,
"net_sentiment_score": -28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 62.5,
"net_sentiment_score": -25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 61,
"net_sentiment_score": -22,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 60,
"net_sentiment_score": -20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 59,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 59,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 57.5,
"net_sentiment_score": -15,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 57,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.64,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 52.5,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.66,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.67,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.68,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51.5,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.67,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 23,
"fragility_score_0_100": 83,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.67,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -45,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bearish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as 'coffee'.",
"No v2 trend_physics/per-record physics provided to 6B; synthesis used available recency proxies (published/newest timestamps), velocity hints, and contradiction via narrative mixing.",
"Several high-heat trends are cross-domain (logistics/macro/agri) and only indirectly map to coffee; this elevates fragility and reversal risk."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}