Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 5
  • top_risk_flag: mixed_driver_contradiction
  • generated_at: 2026-03-15T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Ongoing shipping / trade-flow disruption headlines keep a near-term risk premium embedded in coffee futures (availability + delivered-cost uncertainty). 62 up stable 6h false 57
coffee B-coffee-002 Geopolitics-linked logistics complexity remains a supportive background for higher coffee price volatility (and episodic upside bursts) over the next 24 hours. 58 up fading 24h false 57
coffee B-coffee-003 Demand-side tone (consumer / retail preference signals) provides incremental support to coffee futures in the near term. 55 up fading 24h false 57
coffee B-coffee-004 Operational logistics improvements (supply-chain management / air-cargo optimisation narratives) reduce near-term scarcity fears and can cap coffee futures upside. 47 down accelerating 6h false 57
coffee B-coffee-005 Brazil-origin resilience / sustainability / adaptation narratives lean mildly supply-positive (reducing upside tail risk) on a short horizon, but are secondary to freight headlines. 44 down stable 24h false 57

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260315T120000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Ongoing shipping / trade-flow disruption headlines keep a near-term risk premium embedded in coffee futures (availability + delivered-cost uncertainty).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "trade_flow_disruptions",
 "logistics_risk_premium"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-004",
 "B-coffee-005"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Geopolitics-linked logistics complexity remains a supportive background for higher coffee price volatility (and episodic upside bursts) over the next 24 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply",
 "macro_geopolitics"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-004"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side tone (consumer / retail preference signals) provides incremental support to coffee futures in the near term.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumer_preferences",
 "product_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-004",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Operational logistics improvements (supply-chain management / air-cargo optimisation narratives) reduce near-term scarcity fears and can cap coffee futures upside.",
 "probability_pct": 47,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "logistics_efficiency",
 "inventory_replenishment"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-005",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Brazil-origin resilience / sustainability / adaptation narratives lean mildly supply-positive (reducing upside tail risk) on a short horizon, but are secondary to freight headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply",
 "crop_conditions",
 "policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "mixed_driver_contradiction",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Bullish disruption-risk narrative is being partially offset by fresher logistics-efficiency signals; contradiction elevated versus earlier peak-bullish buckets."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_low_tier_overhang",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several admitted clusters show high low-authority share in evidence mixes; treat marginal signals as noisier and increase fragility."
 },
 {
 "flag": "logistics_headline_sensitivity",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional bias is sensitive to shipping/freight headline cadence; momentum can flip quickly on new port/routing updates."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score holds >= +20 for 2+ consecutive 1h buckets while contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.38."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score falls below +10 AND contradiction_ratio rises above 0.44 in the next 6 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any single 1h velocity swing with |velocity_score| >= 12 (headline-driven whipsaw risk)."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains between -10 and +10 for 6 consecutive 1h buckets (rangebound confirmation)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.363,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.369,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.375,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.313,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.325,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.338,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.356,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.263,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 37,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.275,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.288,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -14,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.388,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.325,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.338,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -16,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.438,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.444,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.444,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 29,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.438,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.425,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.413,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No workflow5a_output physics payload available; used heuristic recency + heat/confidence weighting from 5B trend/vip/risk metadata.",
 "Market mapping constrained to target coffee; several signals are logistics/macro proxies rather than direct crop-yield prints."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}