Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 5
- top_risk_flag: mixed_driver_contradiction
- generated_at: 2026-03-15T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-001 | Ongoing shipping / trade-flow disruption headlines keep a near-term risk premium embedded in coffee futures (availability + delivered-cost uncertainty). | 62 | up | stable | 6h | false | 57 |
| coffee | B-coffee-002 | Geopolitics-linked logistics complexity remains a supportive background for higher coffee price volatility (and episodic upside bursts) over the next 24 hours. | 58 | up | fading | 24h | false | 57 |
| coffee | B-coffee-003 | Demand-side tone (consumer / retail preference signals) provides incremental support to coffee futures in the near term. | 55 | up | fading | 24h | false | 57 |
| coffee | B-coffee-004 | Operational logistics improvements (supply-chain management / air-cargo optimisation narratives) reduce near-term scarcity fears and can cap coffee futures upside. | 47 | down | accelerating | 6h | false | 57 |
| coffee | B-coffee-005 | Brazil-origin resilience / sustainability / adaptation narratives lean mildly supply-positive (reducing upside tail risk) on a short horizon, but are secondary to freight headlines. | 44 | down | stable | 24h | false | 57 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260315T120000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Ongoing shipping / trade-flow disruption headlines keep a near-term risk premium embedded in coffee futures (availability + delivered-cost uncertainty).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"trade_flow_disruptions",
"logistics_risk_premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-004",
"B-coffee-005"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Geopolitics-linked logistics complexity remains a supportive background for higher coffee price volatility (and episodic upside bursts) over the next 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"macro_geopolitics"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-004"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side tone (consumer / retail preference signals) provides incremental support to coffee futures in the near term.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumer_preferences",
"product_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-004",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Operational logistics improvements (supply-chain management / air-cargo optimisation narratives) reduce near-term scarcity fears and can cap coffee futures upside.",
"probability_pct": 47,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"logistics_efficiency",
"inventory_replenishment"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-005",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Brazil-origin resilience / sustainability / adaptation narratives lean mildly supply-positive (reducing upside tail risk) on a short horizon, but are secondary to freight headlines.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"crop_conditions",
"policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "mixed_driver_contradiction",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Bullish disruption-risk narrative is being partially offset by fresher logistics-efficiency signals; contradiction elevated versus earlier peak-bullish buckets."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_low_tier_overhang",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several admitted clusters show high low-authority share in evidence mixes; treat marginal signals as noisier and increase fragility."
},
{
"flag": "logistics_headline_sensitivity",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional bias is sensitive to shipping/freight headline cadence; momentum can flip quickly on new port/routing updates."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score holds >= +20 for 2+ consecutive 1h buckets while contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.38."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls below +10 AND contradiction_ratio rises above 0.44 in the next 6 hours."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any single 1h velocity swing with |velocity_score| >= 12 (headline-driven whipsaw risk)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score remains between -10 and +10 for 6 consecutive 1h buckets (rangebound confirmation)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.363,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.369,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.375,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.313,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.325,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.338,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.356,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.263,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 37,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.275,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.288,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -14,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.388,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.325,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.338,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -16,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.438,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.444,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.444,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.438,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.425,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.413,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No workflow5a_output physics payload available; used heuristic recency + heat/confidence weighting from 5B trend/vip/risk metadata.",
"Market mapping constrained to target coffee; several signals are logistics/macro proxies rather than direct crop-yield prints."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}