Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_risk_geopolitics
- generated_at: 2026-03-15 14:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-001 |
Near-term geopolitical and maritime-security escalation signals around Iran-linked infrastructure/chokepoints increase upside risk for Brent. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
68 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-002 |
Macro-demand headwinds (policy/economic outlook + USD-sensitive framing) and inventory-related narratives keep meaningful downside risk active despite geopolitical risk premia. |
46 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
68 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-003 |
Net balance of recent evidence favours a modest upside bias for Brent over the next 24 hours, but with elevated whipsaw risk due to mixed macro vs. geopolitics drivers. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260315T140000Z-crude_oil-BRN",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term geopolitical and maritime-security escalation signals around Iran-linked infrastructure/chokepoints increase upside risk for Brent.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics",
"shipping_freight",
"supply_disruption"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro-demand headwinds (policy/economic outlook + USD-sensitive framing) and inventory-related narratives keep meaningful downside risk active despite geopolitical risk premia.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Net balance of recent evidence favours a modest upside bias for Brent over the next 24 hours, but with elevated whipsaw risk due to mixed macro vs. geopolitics drivers.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics",
"shipping_freight",
"inventory",
"macro_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_mixed_macro_vs_geopolitics",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "crude_oil",
"detail": "Fresh macro-demand/inventory narratives coexist with fresh supply-risk/geopolitics signals; directional edge is positive but not clean."
},
{
"flag": "event_risk_geopolitics",
"severity": "high",
"market": "crude_oil",
"detail": "Directional support is heavily influenced by fast-moving security/geopolitical headlines (higher gap/whipsaw risk)."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "crude_oil",
"detail": "Several trends show high coverage but with meaningful low-authority share; conviction capped despite strong recency."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If geopolitical/chokepoint escalation signals persist for another cycle without fresh macro-driven counterpressure strengthening."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh macro-demand/inventory signals intensify (rising contradiction) while geopolitical heat fades (spike-and-fade decay)."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If additional security-incident updates arrive within <=2h windows (headline clustering), increasing gap risk."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 48,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -2,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided; state_change computed using neutral baseline (unknown_prior -> neutral_mixed).",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided; contradiction ratio inferred from mixed driver arenas (macro/inventory vs geopolitics/shipping).",
"VIP outliers and seed-level risk anomalies were downweighted due to single-source / unmaterialised evidence flags."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}