Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: headline_gap_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-03-15T07:05:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B1_geo_supply_risk_premium Near-term geopolitical/shipping-risk premium is supporting Brent crude higher (risk of disruption at key maritime routes/chokepoints). 63 up accelerating 6h false 72
crude_oil B2_macro_and_reserve_release_cap Macro headwinds and reserve-release/extra-supply headlines can cap upside and produce pullbacks even if geopolitics stays tense. 55 down stable 24h false 72
crude_oil B3_volatility_elevated Headline sensitivity implies elevated short-horizon volatility (gap risk) regardless of net direction. 70 mixed stable 24h false 72

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260315-0705Z-BRN-crude_oil", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T07:05:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1_geo_supply_risk_premium", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Near-term geopolitical/shipping-risk premium is supporting Brent crude higher (risk of disruption at key maritime routes/chokepoints).", "probability_pct": 63, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Strait of Hormuz security-incident narrative persistence", "Maritime chokepoint and shipping-route risk (incl. IRGC-related mentions)", "Broader US/Middle East escalation headline flow (risk-on-risk-premium)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B2_macro_and_reserve_release_cap" ] }, { "belief_id": "B2_macro_and_reserve_release_cap", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Macro headwinds and reserve-release/extra-supply headlines can cap upside and produce pullbacks even if geopolitics stays tense.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "US Federal Reserve policy narrative (USD/financial-conditions channel)", "IEA/oil reserve release narrative resurfacing", "USD–oil dynamics commentary (macro linkage)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B1_geo_supply_risk_premium" ] }, { "belief_id": "B3_volatility_elevated", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Headline sensitivity implies elevated short-horizon volatility (gap risk) regardless of net direction.", "probability_pct": 70, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "High-frequency geopolitics/shipping updates", "Mixed macro vs geopolitics driver stack" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "high", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1_geo_supply_risk_premium", "B2_macro_and_reserve_release_cap", "B3_volatility_elevated" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "contradiction_pressure", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Geopolitical supply-risk signals (bullish) coexist with macro/reserve-release narratives (bearish), increasing whipsaw risk." }, { "flag": "headline_gap_risk", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "high", "detail": "Security/shipping narratives are fast-moving; gap moves and abrupt reversals are plausible." }, { "flag": "driver_concentration_geopolitics", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Evidence stack is dominated by geopolitics/shipping; fewer direct inventory/demand datapoints present in admitted signals." }, { "flag": "echo_risk_vip_singletons", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "low", "detail": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; treat as weak corroboration until reappearing in higher-diversity coverage." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh chokepoint/security escalation remains dominant AND no confirmed, broad-based supply-release narrative intensifies." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If hourly evidence continues to cluster around security/shipping incidents and escalation headlines." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If reserve-release / macro-tightening narratives strengthen in the same 1–3h window as de-escalation headlines." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If bullish and bearish pressures remain closely balanced (net directional score oscillates near neutral) with rising contradiction ratio." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [ "crude_oil" ] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 26, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, 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"2026-03-14T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 43, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, 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"bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": true, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 43, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 12, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 8, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Scope locked to single market: crude_oil (explicit).", "No prior trend_state_memory provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' (unknown prior).", "Directional mapping interprets geopolitics/shipping risk as bullish for crude pricing; macro/reserve-release narratives as bearish pressure." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }