Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-UR-TS-001: timestamp_inconsistency (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14 20:31 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Uranium futures sentiment remains net supportive (policy/innovation + fuel-cycle focus) with upside bias dominating downside concerns. 62 up stable 24h false 46
uranium B-UR-002 Supply-chain/geopolitical risk framing stays elevated enough to support a short-horizon risk-premium bid in uranium-linked pricing. 58 up accelerating 6h false 46
uranium B-UR-003 Signal quality is mixed: high-volume reinforcement exists, but a meaningful share of incremental items are single-source/low-authority, raising fragility versus an otherwise bullish backdrop. 66 mixed stable 24h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "uranium_20260314T203149Z_6B",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T20:31:49Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium futures sentiment remains net supportive (policy/innovation + fuel-cycle focus) with upside bias dominating downside concerns.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear (DOE/NRC/European policy coverage clusters)",
 "reactor_demand (innovation/SMR narrative reinforcement)",
 "inventory (implicit tightening narrative via supply chain focus)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Supply-chain/geopolitical risk framing stays elevated enough to support a short-horizon risk-premium bid in uranium-linked pricing.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk (Cameco/Kazatomprom/Rosatom/Niger/Kazakhstan narratives)",
 "supply_contracting (fuel-cycle constraint framing)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Signal quality is mixed: high-volume reinforcement exists, but a meaningful share of incremental items are single-source/low-authority, raising fragility versus an otherwise bullish backdrop.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_quality (low-authority share + singleton VIP outliers)",
 "narrative_echo_risk (single-domain spikes)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002",
 "B-UR-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-TS-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "timestamp_inconsistency",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Input contained evidence timestamps later than the workflow0 snapshot timestamp; 6B anchored recency to latest available evidence time."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-DQ-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "low_authority_share",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several trends show high low-authority share and/or singleton VIP items; conviction capped despite bullish direction."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-ECHO-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "singleton_echo_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source and uncorroborated, increasing narrative whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-RA-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "reputational_amplifier_noise",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Reputational-amplifier anomalies present; treated as fragility input rather than directional driver."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-ST-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Some influential supply-chain and industry narratives have multi-week roots; persistence may fade without fresh confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=24h) policy + supply-risk reinforcement persists without credible downside counter-signal, maintain bullish watch bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If single-source items start dominating incremental flow or contradiction emerges, expect higher whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority opposing catalyst appears within <=2h and contradiction rises materially, reassess for fast neutralisation."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence becomes predominantly stale (>72h) with no fresh confirmation, reduce directional reliance."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:31:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:31:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=uranium.",
 "No explicit contradictions were provided; reversal risk derived primarily from evidence quality/echo-risk rather than opposing direction signals.",
 "workflow0 timestamp (2026-03-14T12:00:00Z) precedes some evidence timestamps; snapshot anchored to latest evidence timestamp to avoid negative ages.",
 "Momentum classified as strengthening due to upward-sloping recency-weighted sentiment scores in last ~6h of the constructed timeseries."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}