Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-UR-TS-001: timestamp_inconsistency (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-14 20:31 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-001 |
Uranium futures sentiment remains net supportive (policy/innovation + fuel-cycle focus) with upside bias dominating downside concerns. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
46 |
| uranium |
B-UR-002 |
Supply-chain/geopolitical risk framing stays elevated enough to support a short-horizon risk-premium bid in uranium-linked pricing. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
46 |
| uranium |
B-UR-003 |
Signal quality is mixed: high-volume reinforcement exists, but a meaningful share of incremental items are single-source/low-authority, raising fragility versus an otherwise bullish backdrop. |
66 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "uranium_20260314T203149Z_6B",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T20:31:49Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Uranium futures sentiment remains net supportive (policy/innovation + fuel-cycle focus) with upside bias dominating downside concerns.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear (DOE/NRC/European policy coverage clusters)",
"reactor_demand (innovation/SMR narrative reinforcement)",
"inventory (implicit tightening narrative via supply chain focus)"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply-chain/geopolitical risk framing stays elevated enough to support a short-horizon risk-premium bid in uranium-linked pricing.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk (Cameco/Kazatomprom/Rosatom/Niger/Kazakhstan narratives)",
"supply_contracting (fuel-cycle constraint framing)"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Signal quality is mixed: high-volume reinforcement exists, but a meaningful share of incremental items are single-source/low-authority, raising fragility versus an otherwise bullish backdrop.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"data_quality (low-authority share + singleton VIP outliers)",
"narrative_echo_risk (single-domain spikes)"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002",
"B-UR-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-TS-001",
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "timestamp_inconsistency",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Input contained evidence timestamps later than the workflow0 snapshot timestamp; 6B anchored recency to latest available evidence time."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-DQ-001",
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "low_authority_share",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several trends show high low-authority share and/or singleton VIP items; conviction capped despite bullish direction."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-ECHO-001",
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "singleton_echo_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source and uncorroborated, increasing narrative whipsaw risk."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-RA-001",
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "reputational_amplifier_noise",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Reputational-amplifier anomalies present; treated as fragility input rather than directional driver."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-ST-001",
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Some influential supply-chain and industry narratives have multi-week roots; persistence may fade without fresh confirmation."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=24h) policy + supply-risk reinforcement persists without credible downside counter-signal, maintain bullish watch bias."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If single-source items start dominating incremental flow or contradiction emerges, expect higher whipsaw risk."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority opposing catalyst appears within <=2h and contradiction rises materially, reassess for fast neutralisation."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence becomes predominantly stale (>72h) with no fresh confirmation, reduce directional reliance."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:31:49Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:31:49Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=uranium.",
"No explicit contradictions were provided; reversal risk derived primarily from evidence quality/echo-risk rather than opposing direction signals.",
"workflow0 timestamp (2026-03-14T12:00:00Z) precedes some evidence timestamps; snapshot anchored to latest evidence timestamp to avoid negative ages.",
"Momentum classified as strengthening due to upward-sloping recency-weighted sentiment scores in last ~6h of the constructed timeseries."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}