Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: authority_mix_low_tier_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-001 Near-term uranium price pressure is skewed upward as supply-chain/geopolitical disruption narratives (Kazatomprom/Rosatom/Niger-linked risk framing) remain active and recently reinforced. 62 up accelerating 24h false 54
uranium B-002 Policy and reactor-build/SMR signalling (DOE/NRC/EU/UK policy headlines) is providing a supportive demand backdrop that keeps sentiment net-positive over the next 24 hours. 58 up stable 24h false 54
uranium B-003 Singleton upstream exploration/project update flow (low-diversity sources) may intermittently cap upside via perceived future supply responses, increasing choppiness rather than establishing a clean downtrend. 35 mixed fading 6h false 54

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_20260314T120000Z_uranium_6B_v1",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term uranium price pressure is skewed upward as supply-chain/geopolitical disruption narratives (Kazatomprom/Rosatom/Niger-linked risk framing) remain active and recently reinforced.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "supply_contracting",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Policy and reactor-build/SMR signalling (DOE/NRC/EU/UK policy headlines) is providing a supportive demand backdrop that keeps sentiment net-positive over the next 24 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "reactor_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Singleton upstream exploration/project update flow (low-diversity sources) may intermittently cap upside via perceived future supply responses, increasing choppiness rather than establishing a clean downtrend.",
 "probability_pct": 35,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "supply_contracting"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-001",
 "B-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-001",
 "B-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "authority_mix_low_tier_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "A meaningful share of supporting narrative reinforcement is carried by lower-authority and/or finance-blog domains; conviction is capped despite net-positive directionality.",
 "related_signal_ids": [
 "T-001",
 "T-003",
 "T-005",
 "VIP-001",
 "VIP-002",
 "VIP-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "singleton_echo_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source items (echo-risk), useful as early indicators but fragile for direction-setting.",
 "related_signal_ids": [
 "VIP-001",
 "VIP-002",
 "VIP-003",
 "VIP-007",
 "VIP-008",
 "VIP-009",
 "VIP-013",
 "VIP-014",
 "VIP-015",
 "VIP-016"
 ]
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "headline_whipsaw_policy_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Policy/regulatory narrative can flip quickly (licensing, sanctions, procurement, nuclear build pacing). Reversal risk stays elevated even without explicit contradiction records.",
 "related_signal_ids": [
 "T-023",
 "T-031",
 "T-007",
 "VIP-013"
 ]
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-004",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "reputational_amplifier_present",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "Shadow-stream reputational amplifier anomalies detected; treat as noise unless corroborated by higher-authority multi-source reporting.",
 "related_signal_ids": [
 "RA-001",
 "RA-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain directional_score_signed >= +25 for at least 2 consecutive hourly buckets while contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.25."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises above 0.35 OR any fresh (<=2h) opposing high-authority policy/supply signal appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If net sentiment falls back into neutral band (directional_score_signed between -20 and +20) while fresh opposing evidence count increases."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If thesis_kill_switch becomes true OR fragility_score_0_100 >= 70."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional_state remains neutral_mixed with conviction_score_0_100 < 45."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2917,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2917,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2692,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2692,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2692,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2593,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2593,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2414,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2414,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2414,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2333,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2333,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2258,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2188,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2121,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1842,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1667,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1522,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 16,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradictions array provided; reversal risk estimated from mixed authority/echo-risk and policy headline sensitivity rather than detected direction flips.",
 "Timeseries buckets are conservative, derived from available trend temporal_profile/recency fields; per-record timestamp granularity was not provided in the gated payload."
 ]
 }
 }
}