Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: authority_mix_low_tier_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-14 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-001 |
Near-term uranium price pressure is skewed upward as supply-chain/geopolitical disruption narratives (Kazatomprom/Rosatom/Niger-linked risk framing) remain active and recently reinforced. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
54 |
| uranium |
B-002 |
Policy and reactor-build/SMR signalling (DOE/NRC/EU/UK policy headlines) is providing a supportive demand backdrop that keeps sentiment net-positive over the next 24 hours. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
54 |
| uranium |
B-003 |
Singleton upstream exploration/project update flow (low-diversity sources) may intermittently cap upside via perceived future supply responses, increasing choppiness rather than establishing a clean downtrend. |
35 |
mixed |
fading |
6h |
false |
54 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_20260314T120000Z_uranium_6B_v1",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium price pressure is skewed upward as supply-chain/geopolitical disruption narratives (Kazatomprom/Rosatom/Niger-linked risk framing) remain active and recently reinforced.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"supply_contracting",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Policy and reactor-build/SMR signalling (DOE/NRC/EU/UK policy headlines) is providing a supportive demand backdrop that keeps sentiment net-positive over the next 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"reactor_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Singleton upstream exploration/project update flow (low-diversity sources) may intermittently cap upside via perceived future supply responses, increasing choppiness rather than establishing a clean downtrend.",
"probability_pct": 35,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"supply_contracting"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-001",
"B-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-001",
"B-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-001",
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "authority_mix_low_tier_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "A meaningful share of supporting narrative reinforcement is carried by lower-authority and/or finance-blog domains; conviction is capped despite net-positive directionality.",
"related_signal_ids": [
"T-001",
"T-003",
"T-005",
"VIP-001",
"VIP-002",
"VIP-003"
]
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-002",
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "singleton_echo_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source items (echo-risk), useful as early indicators but fragile for direction-setting.",
"related_signal_ids": [
"VIP-001",
"VIP-002",
"VIP-003",
"VIP-007",
"VIP-008",
"VIP-009",
"VIP-013",
"VIP-014",
"VIP-015",
"VIP-016"
]
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-003",
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "headline_whipsaw_policy_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Policy/regulatory narrative can flip quickly (licensing, sanctions, procurement, nuclear build pacing). Reversal risk stays elevated even without explicit contradiction records.",
"related_signal_ids": [
"T-023",
"T-031",
"T-007",
"VIP-013"
]
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-004",
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "reputational_amplifier_present",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "Shadow-stream reputational amplifier anomalies detected; treat as noise unless corroborated by higher-authority multi-source reporting.",
"related_signal_ids": [
"RA-001",
"RA-002"
]
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain directional_score_signed >= +25 for at least 2 consecutive hourly buckets while contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.25."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises above 0.35 OR any fresh (<=2h) opposing high-authority policy/supply signal appears."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If net sentiment falls back into neutral band (directional_score_signed between -20 and +20) while fresh opposing evidence count increases."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If thesis_kill_switch becomes true OR fragility_score_0_100 >= 70."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_state remains neutral_mixed with conviction_score_0_100 < 45."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2917,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2917,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2692,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2692,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2692,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2593,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2593,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2414,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2414,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2414,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2333,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2333,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2258,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2188,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2121,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1842,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1667,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1522,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 16,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradictions array provided; reversal risk estimated from mixed authority/echo-risk and policy headline sensitivity rather than detected direction flips.",
"Timeseries buckets are conservative, derived from available trend temporal_profile/recency fields; per-record timestamp granularity was not provided in the gated payload."
]
}
}
}