Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_recent_window (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-14 13:50 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SI-001 |
Net upside bias over the next 6–24h as precious-metals flow signals and silver-linked vehicle attention (e.g., silver ETF/SLV narrative) remain supportive. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| silver |
B-SI-002 |
Upside is fragile: supply/security narratives around silver miners can create headline-driven volatility and fast mean-reversion without confirming follow-through flows. |
52 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS_silver_20260314T135017Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T13:50:17Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Net upside bias over the next 6\u201324h as precious-metals flow signals and silver-linked vehicle attention (e.g., silver ETF/SLV narrative) remain supportive.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Upside is fragile: supply/security narratives around silver miners can create headline-driven volatility and fast mean-reversion without confirming follow-through flows.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-001",
"B-SI-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_recent_window",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Within the most recent 24h window, directional support is concentrated in a small number of flow/vehicle-linked updates; limited independent, fresh silver-specific corroboration increases whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "cross_driver_mixing",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Silver drivers are pulling from both investment/flow narratives and miner/supply headlines; this raises reversal risk versus a single-driver tape."
},
{
"flag": "proxy_flow_dependency",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "low",
"details": "A meaningful portion of the bullish pressure is inferred via broad precious-metals flow narratives rather than direct, high-frequency silver-specific catalysts."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh precious-metals flow/ETF attention persists into the next cycle without a comparable-strength opposing driver."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very recent (\u22642h) opposing macro/flows signal appears (e.g., abrupt USD strength / real-rate spike narrative) that raises contradiction materially."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If miner/security headlines recur without follow-through confirmation in broader silver demand/flows signals (headline-churn / mean-reversion setup)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:50:17Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:50:17Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 24,
"acceleration_score": 24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 24,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 5,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope locked to single market: silver (explicit).",
"Macro-only and non-silver-mapped trends were observed but not admitted into silver state synthesis per canonical market mapping constraints.",
"Timeseries is conservative due to limited timestamp-resolved, silver-mapped updates inside the last 24h window."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}