Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_recent_window (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14 13:50 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Net upside bias over the next 6–24h as precious-metals flow signals and silver-linked vehicle attention (e.g., silver ETF/SLV narrative) remain supportive. 58 up accelerating 24h false 58
silver B-SI-002 Upside is fragile: supply/security narratives around silver miners can create headline-driven volatility and fast mean-reversion without confirming follow-through flows. 52 mixed stable 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS_silver_20260314T135017Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T13:50:17Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Net upside bias over the next 6\u201324h as precious-metals flow signals and silver-linked vehicle attention (e.g., silver ETF/SLV narrative) remain supportive.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Upside is fragile: supply/security narratives around silver miners can create headline-driven volatility and fast mean-reversion without confirming follow-through flows.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_recent_window",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Within the most recent 24h window, directional support is concentrated in a small number of flow/vehicle-linked updates; limited independent, fresh silver-specific corroboration increases whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "cross_driver_mixing",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Silver drivers are pulling from both investment/flow narratives and miner/supply headlines; this raises reversal risk versus a single-driver tape."
 },
 {
 "flag": "proxy_flow_dependency",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "A meaningful portion of the bullish pressure is inferred via broad precious-metals flow narratives rather than direct, high-frequency silver-specific catalysts."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh precious-metals flow/ETF attention persists into the next cycle without a comparable-strength opposing driver."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very recent (\u22642h) opposing macro/flows signal appears (e.g., abrupt USD strength / real-rate spike narrative) that raises contradiction materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If miner/security headlines recur without follow-through confirmation in broader silver demand/flows signals (headline-churn / mean-reversion setup)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": -24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:50:17Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:50:17Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 24,
 "acceleration_score": 24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 24,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 5,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope locked to single market: silver (explicit).",
 "Macro-only and non-silver-mapped trends were observed but not admitted into silver state synthesis per canonical market mapping constraints.",
 "Timeseries is conservative due to limited timestamp-resolved, silver-mapped updates inside the last 24h window."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}