Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: headline_whipsaw_risk (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14T17:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Geopolitical / LNG-shipping disruption narratives are adding two-way volatility with a mild upside skew to natural gas futures over the next 24h (risk-premium bid possible, but not cleanly directional for Henry Hub). 52 mixed stable 24h false 74
natural_gas B-NG-002 Near-term (6h) price direction is likely rangebound-to-choppy; conviction is capped because the freshest signals are headline-driven rather than fundamental supply/demand data. 60 flat fading 6h false 74

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-natural_gas-20260314T170000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Geopolitical / LNG-shipping disruption narratives are adding two-way volatility with a mild upside skew to natural gas futures over the next 24h (risk-premium bid possible, but not cleanly directional for Henry Hub).",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_lng",
 "pipeline_flows",
 "production_outages (headline risk proxy)",
 "geopolitical escalation/de-escalation sensitivity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Lack of concrete US weather/storage/production surprises in admitted signal set",
 "Evidence mix is geopolitics-heavy (can reverse quickly on headlines)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) price direction is likely rangebound-to-choppy; conviction is capped because the freshest signals are headline-driven rather than fundamental supply/demand data.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "headline cadence",
 "data sparsity in core domestic fundamentals arenas (weather_demand, storage)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any confirmed, time-stamped operational outage / LNG terminal disruption signal (not present here at high authority + corroboration level)"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "high",
 "markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "detail": "Dominant admitted drivers are geopolitics/LNG-route narratives; directional implications can flip quickly on de-escalation headlines."
 },
 {
 "flag": "domestic_fundamentals_data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "detail": "Within the provided admitted set, there is limited direct, high-confidence signal coverage for US weather-demand, storage balances, or production surprises."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "detail": "Several background trends are >72h old; they contribute narrative pressure but should not dominate near-term direction without fresh confirmation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_visibility_low",
 "severity": "low",
 "markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "detail": "Explicit contradiction objects are absent; mixed-state is driven by uncertain mapping of geopolitical narratives into Henry Hub direction rather than detected counter-signals."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral stance while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 and conviction_score_0_100 stays below 55."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Elevate monitoring when fresh headline clusters (<=6h) push contradiction_ratio higher or produce rapid bucket-to-bucket directional jumps (|velocity_score| >= 8)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a new, high-authority operational outage / LNG flow disruption signal arrives within <=2h and flips net pressure to >= +20 (bullish) or <= -20 (bearish), treat as potential regime shift."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 28,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Scope locked to single market: natural_gas (explicit).",
 "Directional read is capped: admitted evidence is dominated by geopolitics/LNG-route narratives with ambiguous mapping to Henry Hub direction absent direct weather/storage/production catalysts in this slice.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects supplied; neutral_mixed arises from low directional magnitude + high fragility rather than detected opposing thrust."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}