Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: headline_whipsaw_risk (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-14T17:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Geopolitical / LNG-shipping disruption narratives are adding two-way volatility with a mild upside skew to natural gas futures over the next 24h (risk-premium bid possible, but not cleanly directional for Henry Hub). | 52 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 74 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Near-term (6h) price direction is likely rangebound-to-choppy; conviction is capped because the freshest signals are headline-driven rather than fundamental supply/demand data. | 60 | flat | fading | 6h | false | 74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-natural_gas-20260314T170000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Geopolitical / LNG-shipping disruption narratives are adding two-way volatility with a mild upside skew to natural gas futures over the next 24h (risk-premium bid possible, but not cleanly directional for Henry Hub).",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"pipeline_flows",
"production_outages (headline risk proxy)",
"geopolitical escalation/de-escalation sensitivity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Lack of concrete US weather/storage/production surprises in admitted signal set",
"Evidence mix is geopolitics-heavy (can reverse quickly on headlines)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) price direction is likely rangebound-to-choppy; conviction is capped because the freshest signals are headline-driven rather than fundamental supply/demand data.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"headline cadence",
"data sparsity in core domestic fundamentals arenas (weather_demand, storage)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any confirmed, time-stamped operational outage / LNG terminal disruption signal (not present here at high authority + corroboration level)"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "high",
"markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"detail": "Dominant admitted drivers are geopolitics/LNG-route narratives; directional implications can flip quickly on de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"flag": "domestic_fundamentals_data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"detail": "Within the provided admitted set, there is limited direct, high-confidence signal coverage for US weather-demand, storage balances, or production surprises."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"detail": "Several background trends are >72h old; they contribute narrative pressure but should not dominate near-term direction without fresh confirmation."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_visibility_low",
"severity": "low",
"markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"detail": "Explicit contradiction objects are absent; mixed-state is driven by uncertain mapping of geopolitical narratives into Henry Hub direction rather than detected counter-signals."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral stance while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 and conviction_score_0_100 stays below 55."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Elevate monitoring when fresh headline clusters (<=6h) push contradiction_ratio higher or produce rapid bucket-to-bucket directional jumps (|velocity_score| >= 8)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a new, high-authority operational outage / LNG flow disruption signal arrives within <=2h and flips net pressure to >= +20 (bullish) or <= -20 (bearish), treat as potential regime shift."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 28,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope locked to single market: natural_gas (explicit).",
"Directional read is capped: admitted evidence is dominated by geopolitics/LNG-route narratives with ambiguous mapping to Henry Hub direction absent direct weather/storage/production catalysts in this slice.",
"No explicit contradiction objects supplied; neutral_mixed arises from low directional magnitude + high fragility rather than detected opposing thrust."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}