Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: headline_driven_volatility (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-14 06:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Geopolitical and LNG supply-disruption risk is adding near-term risk-premium, biasing natural gas futures upward over the next 6 hours. | 60 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 61 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Supportive supply-risk backdrop persists for ~24 hours, but with elevated headline-driven volatility rather than a clean trend. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 61 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-003 | If disruption narratives fail to confirm and/or de-escalation headlines arrive, natural gas futures are vulnerable to a downside pullback (risk-premium unwind) within 24 hours. | 52 | down | stable | 24h | false | 61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-NG-20260314T060000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Geopolitical and LNG supply-disruption risk is adding near-term risk-premium, biasing natural gas futures upward over the next 6 hours.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Middle East geopolitical escalation risk (Iran/Qatar)",
"Energy-security incident flow (naval/security headlines)",
"LNG supply/disruption narrative (Ras Laffan / Qatar-linked)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Supportive supply-risk backdrop persists for ~24 hours, but with elevated headline-driven volatility rather than a clean trend.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Persistent geopolitical risk cluster across multiple sources",
"Recurring LNG flow / infrastructure disruption mentions"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "If disruption narratives fail to confirm and/or de-escalation headlines arrive, natural gas futures are vulnerable to a downside pullback (risk-premium unwind) within 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Risk-premium fragility (headline-sensitive)",
"Presence of mixed/low-corroboration signals (VIP lane single-source items)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_driven_volatility",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional bias is materially supported by geopolitical / disruption headlines; reversals can occur on de-escalation or non-confirmation."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several supporting narratives have multi-day persistence; stale suppression applied to avoid over-weighting older items."
},
{
"flag": "data_quality_mixed_vip_lane_echo_risk",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"details": "VIP/risk anomalies include multiple single-source items (echo-risk flagged), reducing confidence in those incremental signals."
},
{
"flag": "reversal_risk_medium",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Medium reversal risk due to risk-premium nature of drivers and mixed corroboration quality across some sub-signals."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh disruption / escalation confirmations continue within the next 6 hours without meaningful contradictory de-escalation signals."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "A high-authority de-escalation / resolution headline appears and short-horizon supportive signals fade."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises or mixed signals increase while geopolitical headlines remain active."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls back into neutral band (between -20 and +20) with no fresh confirming evidence."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 4,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk inferred from driver type (headline-sensitive geopolitics) and mixed corroboration quality in VIP lane single-source items.",
"Prior state not supplied (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change set to 'unchanged' with implicit unknown prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}