Snapshot
- subject_area: LNG / Middle East geopolitical supply-risk premium
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: headline_driven_volatility (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-14T08:52:33Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Near-term upside bias from elevated geopolitical/LNG shipping disruption risk (risk-premium > demand-destruction narrative). | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 68 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | 24h bias remains mildly upward but fragile; pricing sensitivity is headline-driven and can mean-revert quickly if risk tone softens. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_NG_2026-03-14T08:52:33Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T08:52:33Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "LNG / Middle East geopolitical supply-risk premium",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term upside bias from elevated geopolitical/LNG shipping disruption risk (risk-premium > demand-destruction narrative).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Qatar/LNG-related geopolitical risk narratives remain active",
"Strait of Hormuz / maritime-security risk headlines clustering",
"Late-cycle uptick in headline intensity (last ~2\u20133h in feed)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Credible de-escalation / ceasefire / shipping-normalisation headlines within the next 6h",
"Evidence of demand weakness dominating risk-premium dynamics",
"Lack of follow-through confirmation from higher-authority sources"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "24h bias remains mildly upward but fragile; pricing sensitivity is headline-driven and can mean-revert quickly if risk tone softens.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Persistent Middle East risk overhang (shipping + LNG supply chain)",
"Market narrative reinforcement across multiple domains (defence/maritime/geopolitical)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Clear resolution path (shipping corridor risk fades)",
"Countervailing fundamentals (storage/production/weather) not present in this input pack could dominate"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_driven_volatility",
"severity": "high",
"market": "natural_gas",
"detail": "Signal is dominated by geopolitical/shipping narratives rather than direct weather/storage/production fundamentals in this pack."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_fundamentals_missing",
"severity": "high",
"market": "natural_gas",
"detail": "No explicit weather-demand, storage, or production-flow evidence objects were admitted; conviction capped and fragility elevated."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "natural_gas",
"detail": "Reversal risk elevated because the marginal driver is fast-changing conflict and maritime security news."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If new high-authority, very recent (<=6h) LNG/Qatar/Hormuz disruption confirmations continue to cluster without offsetting de-escalation signals."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction increases (mixed escalation vs de-escalation headlines) or rapid headline cadence persists."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a credible de-escalation/normalisation headline arrives and is echoed by multiple higher-authority sources within ~2h."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If no incremental confirmations occur and narratives drift >24h without fresh reinforcement (signal decay / mean-reversion risk rises)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to natural_gas from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"Directional interpretation is mapped to natural gas via LNG/Qatar/Hormuz supply-chain risk linkage; direct weather/storage/production drivers were not present in the provided signal objects.",
"No prior market-state memory provided; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged'."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}