Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-LI-001
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Lithium futures retain an upward bias over the next 24h as EV adoption + battery buildout narratives remain net-supportive to lithium demand, but follow-through is choppy. 58 up fading 24h false 64
lithium B-LI-002 Near-term (6h) lithium futures sentiment is cooling after a supportive impulse; risk of a stall/flat tape dominates unless another fresh demand or supply-disruption catalyst arrives. 55 flat accelerating 6h false 64
lithium B-LI-003 Reversal risk is non-trivial: the current bullish tilt is fragile because evidence is thematic/indirect (EV/battery headlines) and mixed authority tiers; a single high-trust negative policy/supply-chain headline could neutralise the bias quickly. 60 mixed stable 24h false 64

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "lithium_2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Lithium futures retain an upward bias over the next 24h as EV adoption + battery buildout narratives remain net-supportive to lithium demand, but follow-through is choppy.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand (late-cycle EV adoption headlines continuing to update)",
 "battery_supply_chain (battery manufacturing/chemistry items staying warm)",
 "inventory (implicit: demand narrative without clear countervailing inventory draw/overhang data in this packet)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "RA-001 (regulatory enforcement/uncertainty risk overhang)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium futures sentiment is cooling after a supportive impulse; risk of a stall/flat tape dominates unless another fresh demand or supply-disruption catalyst arrives.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "recency profile shows a spike (around 06:00Z) followed by gradual fade into the snapshot",
 "stale-suppression applied to older background narratives reduces marginal bullish impulse"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-001 (if broader demand narrative re-accelerates)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Reversal risk is non-trivial: the current bullish tilt is fragile because evidence is thematic/indirect (EV/battery headlines) and mixed authority tiers; a single high-trust negative policy/supply-chain headline could neutralise the bias quickly.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "authority mix skewed lower-tier across multiple admitted narratives",
 "policy/regulatory headline risk present in risk-anomaly lane"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-002",
 "B-LI-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "type": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A meaningful share of supportive narratives are >72h old (Feb / early Mar) and were downweighted; reduces persistence confidence."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "type": "data_authority_mix",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Evidence bundles show high low-authority share across multiple trends; increases fragility and headline-whipsaw sensitivity."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "type": "regulatory_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Regulatory/legal risk anomaly present (stale vs snapshot but still relevant to sentiment)."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-004",
 "market": "lithium",
 "type": "momentum_cooling",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Recent bullish impulse peaked and then faded into the snapshot window; watch for neutralisation if no new catalysts appear."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 for 2+ consecutive 1h buckets AND fresh_evidence_count increases without contradiction_ratio rising."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score falls below +20 OR contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.25 on fresh evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Large 1h velocity swings (|velocity_score| >= 10) with sparse evidence (fresh_evidence_count <= 1)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score oscillates between -20 and +20 for 4+ consecutive 1h buckets (rangebound churn)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": 4,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 20,
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 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 39,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 38,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": true,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:30:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": -2,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:30:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 38,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 6,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to lithium; single-market synthesis enforced.",
 "No workflow5A physics present in input; used recency + trend temporal proxies (evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp where available) for weighting.",
 "No explicit contradictions list provided; contradiction_ratio held low but non-zero to reflect thematic uncertainty and mixed authority tiers.",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change marked as new_bullish with unknown prior treated as neutral baseline."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}