Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-LI-001
- generated_at: 2026-03-14T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Lithium futures retain an upward bias over the next 24h as EV adoption + battery buildout narratives remain net-supportive to lithium demand, but follow-through is choppy. | 58 | up | fading | 24h | false | 64 |
| lithium | B-LI-002 | Near-term (6h) lithium futures sentiment is cooling after a supportive impulse; risk of a stall/flat tape dominates unless another fresh demand or supply-disruption catalyst arrives. | 55 | flat | accelerating | 6h | false | 64 |
| lithium | B-LI-003 | Reversal risk is non-trivial: the current bullish tilt is fragile because evidence is thematic/indirect (EV/battery headlines) and mixed authority tiers; a single high-trust negative policy/supply-chain headline could neutralise the bias quickly. | 60 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 64 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "lithium_2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Lithium futures retain an upward bias over the next 24h as EV adoption + battery buildout narratives remain net-supportive to lithium demand, but follow-through is choppy.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand (late-cycle EV adoption headlines continuing to update)",
"battery_supply_chain (battery manufacturing/chemistry items staying warm)",
"inventory (implicit: demand narrative without clear countervailing inventory draw/overhang data in this packet)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"RA-001 (regulatory enforcement/uncertainty risk overhang)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium futures sentiment is cooling after a supportive impulse; risk of a stall/flat tape dominates unless another fresh demand or supply-disruption catalyst arrives.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"recency profile shows a spike (around 06:00Z) followed by gradual fade into the snapshot",
"stale-suppression applied to older background narratives reduces marginal bullish impulse"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-001 (if broader demand narrative re-accelerates)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Reversal risk is non-trivial: the current bullish tilt is fragile because evidence is thematic/indirect (EV/battery headlines) and mixed authority tiers; a single high-trust negative policy/supply-chain headline could neutralise the bias quickly.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"authority mix skewed lower-tier across multiple admitted narratives",
"policy/regulatory headline risk present in risk-anomaly lane"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002",
"B-LI-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"type": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A meaningful share of supportive narratives are >72h old (Feb / early Mar) and were downweighted; reduces persistence confidence."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"type": "data_authority_mix",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Evidence bundles show high low-authority share across multiple trends; increases fragility and headline-whipsaw sensitivity."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"type": "regulatory_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Regulatory/legal risk anomaly present (stale vs snapshot but still relevant to sentiment)."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-004",
"market": "lithium",
"type": "momentum_cooling",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Recent bullish impulse peaked and then faded into the snapshot window; watch for neutralisation if no new catalysts appear."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 for 2+ consecutive 1h buckets AND fresh_evidence_count increases without contradiction_ratio rising."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls below +20 OR contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.25 on fresh evidence."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Large 1h velocity swings (|velocity_score| >= 10) with sparse evidence (fresh_evidence_count <= 1)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score oscillates between -20 and +20 for 4+ consecutive 1h buckets (rangebound churn)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -5,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": true,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:30:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 38,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 6,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to lithium; single-market synthesis enforced.",
"No workflow5A physics present in input; used recency + trend temporal proxies (evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp where available) for weighting.",
"No explicit contradictions list provided; contradiction_ratio held low but non-zero to reflect thematic uncertainty and mixed authority tiers.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change marked as new_bullish with unknown prior treated as neutral baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}