Snapshot
- subject_area: Crude oil (Brent) , geopolitical supply-risk premium
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_volatility_premium
- generated_at: 2026-03-14T19:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-CO-001 | Near-term crude is biased upward as Middle East security headlines (Iran / Strait of Hormuz / Kharg-related risk) sustain a risk premium in forward curves. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 65 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-002 | Over the next 24h, crude remains net-up biased but with elevated whipsaw risk: de-escalation headlines could compress the risk premium quickly. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 65 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-003 | Tail risk is two-sided: a rapid escalation scenario supports a sharp upward repricing, while a clear de-escalation/route-security confirmation supports a fast pullback. | 55 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 65 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_2026-03-14T19:00:00Z_crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Crude oil (Brent) \u2014 geopolitical supply-risk premium",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term crude is biased upward as Middle East security headlines (Iran / Strait of Hormuz / Kharg-related risk) sustain a risk premium in forward curves.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Iran: geopolitical conflict (late-surge)",
"Strait of Hormuz: security incidents (supply-route fragility)",
"Kharg Island / maritime chokepoint attention (export vulnerability)",
"Broader military-escalation headlines (risk premium)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"VIP single-source 'supply stability' signals (low corroboration)",
"Potential refinery-outage narratives that could imply short-run demand softening (thin evidence)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, crude remains net-up biased but with elevated whipsaw risk: de-escalation headlines could compress the risk premium quickly.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Sustained multi-source geopolitical coverage with high recency-weighted heat",
"Shipping/maritime chokepoint sensitivity (freight + security attention)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any credible confirmation of stabilising supply/flow conditions",
"Narrative pivot toward macro demand weakness (not strongly represented in this ingest)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Tail risk is two-sided: a rapid escalation scenario supports a sharp upward repricing, while a clear de-escalation/route-security confirmation supports a fast pullback.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Concentrated catalyst set (security incidents / military escalation themes)",
"High-news-velocity clusters with low contradiction in the feed"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Lack of hard physical-flow disruption confirmation in the provided cache (risk premium may be headline-driven)"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002",
"B-CO-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "geopolitical_volatility_premium",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Directional support is concentrated in Iran/Hormuz/Kharg security escalation themes; headline-driven repricing risk is elevated."
},
{
"flag": "momentum_deceleration",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Signal timeseries shows bullish peak earlier, followed by mild fade into the latest buckets (bullish but decelerating)."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_tail",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A meaningful portion of the broader evidence bundle is low-tier; VIP/risk anomalies include several single-source items (treat as secondary)."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "De-escalation or confirmed route-security updates could quickly compress the risk premium (reversal risk elevated vs a typical macro-only regime)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch only while Iran/Hormuz/Kharg escalation signals remain dominant and fresh (<=24h) with no credible de-escalation counter-signal."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if additional maritime/security incident headlines print or if official guidance changes shipping risk posture (route disruption premium expansion)."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if a high-authority update indicates de-escalation / secured transit / stabilising exports, or if contradiction starts rising materially in the next cycle."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Hard de-risk watch only if a late-breaking, high-trust bearish demand shock appears (not present in this ingest)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 74,
"bullish_pressure_score": 87,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 78,
"bullish_pressure_score": 89,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 78,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No v2 trend_physics fields provided in this payload; used timestamps + temporal_profile + recency-weighted heat as proxy.",
"No explicit contradiction objects present; contradiction_ratio set conservatively above zero due to mixed authority and single-source VIP/risk items."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}