Snapshot

  • subject_area: Crude oil (Brent) , geopolitical supply-risk premium
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_volatility_premium
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14T19:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CO-001 Near-term crude is biased upward as Middle East security headlines (Iran / Strait of Hormuz / Kharg-related risk) sustain a risk premium in forward curves. 62 up accelerating 6h false 65
crude_oil B-CO-002 Over the next 24h, crude remains net-up biased but with elevated whipsaw risk: de-escalation headlines could compress the risk premium quickly. 58 up stable 24h false 65
crude_oil B-CO-003 Tail risk is two-sided: a rapid escalation scenario supports a sharp upward repricing, while a clear de-escalation/route-security confirmation supports a fast pullback. 55 mixed accelerating 24h false 65

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_2026-03-14T19:00:00Z_crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Crude oil (Brent) \u2014 geopolitical supply-risk premium",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term crude is biased upward as Middle East security headlines (Iran / Strait of Hormuz / Kharg-related risk) sustain a risk premium in forward curves.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Iran: geopolitical conflict (late-surge)",
 "Strait of Hormuz: security incidents (supply-route fragility)",
 "Kharg Island / maritime chokepoint attention (export vulnerability)",
 "Broader military-escalation headlines (risk premium)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "VIP single-source 'supply stability' signals (low corroboration)",
 "Potential refinery-outage narratives that could imply short-run demand softening (thin evidence)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, crude remains net-up biased but with elevated whipsaw risk: de-escalation headlines could compress the risk premium quickly.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Sustained multi-source geopolitical coverage with high recency-weighted heat",
 "Shipping/maritime chokepoint sensitivity (freight + security attention)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any credible confirmation of stabilising supply/flow conditions",
 "Narrative pivot toward macro demand weakness (not strongly represented in this ingest)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Tail risk is two-sided: a rapid escalation scenario supports a sharp upward repricing, while a clear de-escalation/route-security confirmation supports a fast pullback.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Concentrated catalyst set (security incidents / military escalation themes)",
 "High-news-velocity clusters with low contradiction in the feed"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Lack of hard physical-flow disruption confirmation in the provided cache (risk premium may be headline-driven)"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CO-001",
 "B-CO-002",
 "B-CO-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_volatility_premium",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Directional support is concentrated in Iran/Hormuz/Kharg security escalation themes; headline-driven repricing risk is elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "momentum_deceleration",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Signal timeseries shows bullish peak earlier, followed by mild fade into the latest buckets (bullish but decelerating)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_tail",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A meaningful portion of the broader evidence bundle is low-tier; VIP/risk anomalies include several single-source items (treat as secondary)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "De-escalation or confirmed route-security updates could quickly compress the risk premium (reversal risk elevated vs a typical macro-only regime)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch only while Iran/Hormuz/Kharg escalation signals remain dominant and fresh (<=24h) with no credible de-escalation counter-signal."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if additional maritime/security incident headlines print or if official guidance changes shipping risk posture (route disruption premium expansion)."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if a high-authority update indicates de-escalation / secured transit / stabilising exports, or if contradiction starts rising materially in the next cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Hard de-risk watch only if a late-breaking, high-trust bearish demand shock appears (not present in this ingest)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 74,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 87,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 78,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 89,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 78,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 86,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "No v2 trend_physics fields provided in this payload; used timestamps + temporal_profile + recency-weighted heat as proxy.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects present; contradiction_ratio set conservatively above zero due to mixed authority and single-source VIP/risk items."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}