Snapshot
- subject_area: Corn futures
- target_market_code: corn
- ticker: corn
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: momentum_fading_last_6h (severity: medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-14T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| corn |
B1_inputs_tighten_supply_24h |
Fertiliser availability/price shocks raise input costs and can reduce application or shift acreage, increasing perceived 2026 corn supply risk (supportive for prices). |
64 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
| corn |
B2_ethanol_policy_supports_demand |
US policy trajectory supportive of biofuels/ethanol is perceived as demand-positive for corn (adds upward demand pressure). |
57 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
62 |
| corn |
B3_weather_relief_caps_rally_24h |
Recent precipitation/drought-improvement narrative partially offsets supply-scare pricing, limiting upside follow-through. |
46 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_corn_20260314T120000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Corn futures",
"market_code": "corn"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "corn",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"corn"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1_inputs_tighten_supply_24h",
"market": "corn",
"claim": "Fertiliser availability/price shocks raise input costs and can reduce application or shift acreage, increasing perceived 2026 corn supply risk (supportive for prices).",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"crop_conditions",
"planting_harvest",
"export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3_weather_relief_caps_rally_24h"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2_ethanol_policy_supports_demand",
"market": "corn",
"claim": "US policy trajectory supportive of biofuels/ethanol is perceived as demand-positive for corn (adds upward demand pressure).",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ethanol_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B3_weather_relief_caps_rally_24h",
"market": "corn",
"claim": "Recent precipitation/drought-improvement narrative partially offsets supply-scare pricing, limiting upside follow-through.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"weather",
"crop_conditions"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1_inputs_tighten_supply_24h"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "corn",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1_inputs_tighten_supply_24h",
"B2_ethanol_policy_supports_demand"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "corn",
"flag": "momentum_fading_last_6h",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Latest directional evidence clustered ~8\\u20139 hours before snapshot; bullish impulse persists but is decaying without new confirmations."
},
{
"market": "corn",
"flag": "macro_geopolitical_input_shock_uncertainty",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Input-cost shock narrative (fertiliser/energy logistics) is directionally supportive but prone to headline-driven whipsaw."
},
{
"market": "corn",
"flag": "mixed_cross_driver_signals",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Supply-risk (inputs) supportive while weather-improvement narrative provides a partial counterweight."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "corn",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) confirmations of fertiliser tightness / reduced application emerge without offsetting bullish crop-condition news, maintain long-bias watch."
},
{
"market": "corn",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh weather/crop-condition updates materially improve yield outlook (and contradiction rises), shift to reversal-watch."
},
{
"market": "corn",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility-watch while geopolitical/input-cost headlines remain active; expect sentiment spikes and fast mean reversion."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"corn"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": -11,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 81,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 32,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 27,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -34,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 22,
"acceleration_score": 26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 76,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 76,
"velocity_score": 28,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 92,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 90,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 90,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 94,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 76,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 76,
"velocity_score": -13,
"acceleration_score": -27,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 90,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -3,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 0,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"workflow5b_output missing (no pre-computed trend_physics / trend_state_memory). Used ingested headline-level evidence as a lightweight proxy; conviction capped and fragility elevated accordingly.",
"Prior state unavailable; state_change computed assuming implicit prior=neutral."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}