Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: HG
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: policy_trade_headline_volatility
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14T09:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1 Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 6 hours as fresh pro-demand narratives (grid modernisation / renewables build-out) dominate and no meaningful opposing signal is present in the admitted feed. 60 up accelerating 6h false 56
copper B2 Copper futures likely remain supported over the next 24 hours by a supply-tightness narrative (disruption/deficit themes) alongside demand tailwinds from electrification, but with elevated fragility from policy/trade headline risk. 63 up stable 24h false 56
copper B3 Near-term two-sided volatility risk is elevated due to trade-policy and regulatory headline density, even if the directional baseline remains positive. 58 mixed accelerating 6h false 56

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_copper_20260314T090000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures (HG)",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 6 hours as fresh pro-demand narratives (grid modernisation / renewables build-out) dominate and no meaningful opposing signal is present in the admitted feed.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "inventory",
 "trend:T-027",
 "trend:T-028",
 "trend:T-029"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "trend:T-001",
 "vip:VIP-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures likely remain supported over the next 24 hours by a supply-tightness narrative (disruption/deficit themes) alongside demand tailwinds from electrification, but with elevated fragility from policy/trade headline risk.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply",
 "inventory",
 "industrial_demand",
 "trend:T-011",
 "trend:T-022",
 "trend:T-008"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "trend:T-001",
 "risk:RA-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term two-sided volatility risk is elevated due to trade-policy and regulatory headline density, even if the directional baseline remains positive.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "china_policy",
 "trend:T-001",
 "trend:T-005",
 "vip:VIP-001"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "policy_trade_headline_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "details": "Admitted feed contains fresh trade-policy related items (US/EU framing) that can shift risk premia quickly without needing contradictory commodity-specific evidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_vip_noise",
 "severity": "medium",
 "markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "details": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source with echo-risk; treated as weak/fragile contributors unless corroborated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_tail_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "details": "Several high-heat trends show a large low-authority share in the evidence mix; conviction capped accordingly."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "details": "A minority of relevant supply/disruption narratives are older than 72h and were downweighted; if fresh confirmation fails, bullish momentum may fade."
 },
 {
 "flag": "timeseries_bucket_assignment_sparse",
 "severity": "low",
 "markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "details": "Timeseries buckets are derived from trend-level/vip-level timestamps available to 6B (not full per-record tick timestamps); bucket values are conservative."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh supportive demand/supply-tightness signals print within the next 6h and no strong opposing (down) catalyst appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headline cadence increases (new items <=2h) or contradiction proxy rises materially versus the last 6h baseline."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh, high-authority opposing signal emerges (<=2h) that directly undermines industrial demand or confirms rapid supply normalisation."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio sustains >0.35 with thinning fresh-evidence counts (<=1 per hour) for 4+ hours."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 15,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Mode guard: commodities_trading accepted from flight_plan.system_mode.",
 "No explicit per-signal trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; recency and momentum inferred from trend temporal_profile + evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp at trend/VIP granularity.",
 "No admitted contradiction objects; contradiction_ratio held low and used mainly as a fragility proxy for policy/headline noise + single-source VIP echo-risk."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}