Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-14T09:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-copper-6h-001 | Copper futures (HG) have a modest upward bias over the next 6 hours as fresh pro-demand narratives (grid/renewables capex) remain active and no high-trust opposing catalyst is present in the admitted signal set. | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 54 |
| copper | B-copper-24h-002 | Copper futures (HG) are more likely than not to be higher over the next 24 hours as demand-side electrification/infrastructure themes combine with recurring supply-deficit/disruption framing in the admitted narrative set. | 61 | up | stable | 24h | false | 54 |
| copper | B-copper-vol-003 | Copper futures headline sensitivity is elevated (reversal risk via policy/trade narrative), so realised direction may be choppy even if the net bias remains positive. | 55 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 54 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_copper_2026-03-14T09:00:00Z_v1",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-6h-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures (HG) have a modest upward bias over the next 6 hours as fresh pro-demand narratives (grid/renewables capex) remain active and no high-trust opposing catalyst is present in the admitted signal set.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"usd_strength",
"policy_headline_whipsaw_risk"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-24h-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures (HG) are more likely than not to be higher over the next 24 hours as demand-side electrification/infrastructure themes combine with recurring supply-deficit/disruption framing in the admitted narrative set.",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"mine_supply",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"policy_trade_uncertainty",
"usd_strength"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-vol-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures headline sensitivity is elevated (reversal risk via policy/trade narrative), so realised direction may be choppy even if the net bias remains positive.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"china_policy",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"low_contradiction_in_admitted_signals"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-6h-001",
"B-copper-24h-002",
"B-copper-vol-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-stale-context-overhang",
"market": "copper",
"label": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A meaningful share of supportive themes are long-horizon narratives; intraday conviction is capped despite a late-cycle freshness burst."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-policy-whipsaw",
"market": "copper",
"label": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Policy/trade-related trend clusters are recent and can flip quickly; treat the bullish bias as more fragile than it appears from aggregate positive sentiment."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-data-shape-sparsity",
"market": "copper",
"label": "data_sparsity_intraday",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Within the last 24h, the freshest items include multiple singleton/VIP-style signals; this raises fragility even without explicit contradictions."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with fresh evidence count staying non-zero in the next cycle, and contradiction_ratio does not spike materially."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "A fresh (<=2h) opposing, high-authority signal appears OR contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.35 while directional score decays toward neutral."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Policy/trade narrative heat remains elevated while intraday evidence remains thin (singleton-heavy), implying higher fragility despite bullish state."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls into (-20,+20) neutral band AND momentum weakens with no new corroborating signals."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 5,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to 'copper'; single-market enforcement applied.",
"No per-signal v2 physics fields present in the provided payload; recency/velocity approximated from timestamps, temporal_profile shapes, and evidence_recency_proxy.",
"No explicit contradiction objects supplied; contradiction_ratio reflects qualitative driver-mix and policy-headline fragility rather than direct opposing-signal counts.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change treated as neutral->bullish baseline (new_bullish)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}