Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-STALE-OVERHANG
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14T06:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Copper futures have a modestly higher probability of trading up over the next 6 hours as demand-transition narratives and supply-deficit framing remain supportive. 58 up accelerating 6h false 56
copper B-copper-002 Over the next 24 hours, balance of evidence skews bullish but conviction is capped by stale-overhang and mixed source authority. 62 up stable 24h false 56

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260314T060000Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures have a modestly higher probability of trading up over the next 6 hours as fresh demand-transition narratives and supply-deficit framing remain net supportive.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Trade-policy uncertainty can cap risk appetite and add headline-driven volatility."
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the balance of evidence still skews bullish for copper futures, but conviction is capped by stale-overhang (many narratives span weeks) and mixed source authority.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "mine_supply",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Policy/trade headlines could quickly flip near-term sentiment despite the broader bullish framing."
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-STALE-OVERHANG",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Directional support relies on multi-week narrative bundles; fresh confirmations exist but do not fully eliminate stale-context overhang."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-AUTHORITY-MIX",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Evidence bundles show a meaningful low-authority share and multiple singleton/echo-risk items; conviction capped accordingly."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-POLICY-HEADLINE-VOL",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Trade-policy related narratives can generate rapid sentiment swings even without explicit contradiction records in this cycle."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-DATA-SPARSITY-INTRADAY",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "low",
 "description": "Intraday timing is driven by a small number of timestamped updates; treat short-horizon momentum as less robust."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh, higher-authority confirmations arrive within the next 6\u201312 hours without a contradiction spike, bullish conviction can be allowed to rise."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines accelerate and cross-source disagreement increases, expect short-horizon whipsaws (even if the 24h bias stays positive)."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh, high-authority opposing macro signal appears (e.g., demand shock / policy tightening) within a 0\u20132h window and contradiction ratio rises materially, reassess as potential reversal."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence flow stalls and only stale background narratives remain, treat directional edge as insufficient and default to neutral monitoring."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -9,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 22,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -22,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 35,
 "acceleration_score": 45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 35,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 7,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields were present in the provided 5B payload; intraday momentum/fragility are inferred conservatively from timestamps, temporal_profile shapes, and evidence metadata.",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change set as new_bullish under unknown prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}