Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-STALE-OVERHANG
- generated_at: 2026-03-14T06:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-001 |
Copper futures have a modestly higher probability of trading up over the next 6 hours as demand-transition narratives and supply-deficit framing remain supportive. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
56 |
| copper |
B-copper-002 |
Over the next 24 hours, balance of evidence skews bullish but conviction is capped by stale-overhang and mixed source authority. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260314T060000Z-copper",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures have a modestly higher probability of trading up over the next 6 hours as fresh demand-transition narratives and supply-deficit framing remain net supportive.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Trade-policy uncertainty can cap risk appetite and add headline-driven volatility."
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the balance of evidence still skews bullish for copper futures, but conviction is capped by stale-overhang (many narratives span weeks) and mixed source authority.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"mine_supply",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Policy/trade headlines could quickly flip near-term sentiment despite the broader bullish framing."
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-STALE-OVERHANG",
"market": "copper",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Directional support relies on multi-week narrative bundles; fresh confirmations exist but do not fully eliminate stale-context overhang."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-AUTHORITY-MIX",
"market": "copper",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Evidence bundles show a meaningful low-authority share and multiple singleton/echo-risk items; conviction capped accordingly."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-POLICY-HEADLINE-VOL",
"market": "copper",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Trade-policy related narratives can generate rapid sentiment swings even without explicit contradiction records in this cycle."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-DATA-SPARSITY-INTRADAY",
"market": "copper",
"level": "low",
"description": "Intraday timing is driven by a small number of timestamped updates; treat short-horizon momentum as less robust."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh, higher-authority confirmations arrive within the next 6\u201312 hours without a contradiction spike, bullish conviction can be allowed to rise."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines accelerate and cross-source disagreement increases, expect short-horizon whipsaws (even if the 24h bias stays positive)."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh, high-authority opposing macro signal appears (e.g., demand shock / policy tightening) within a 0\u20132h window and contradiction ratio rises materially, reassess as potential reversal."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence flow stalls and only stale background narratives remain, treat directional edge as insufficient and default to neutral monitoring."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -9,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 22,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -22,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 35,
"acceleration_score": 45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 35,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 7,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields were present in the provided 5B payload; intraday momentum/fragility are inferred conservatively from timestamps, temporal_profile shapes, and evidence metadata.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change set as new_bullish under unknown prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}