Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14 23:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term logistics/geopolitical disruption risk keeps an upside bias in coffee futures (risk premium / delay-to-delivery premium). 58 up stable 24h false 72
coffee B-coffee-002 Recent improvement/optimism around air-cargo and supply-chain management partially offsets disruption premium, increasing pullback risk after upside attempts. 46 down accelerating 6h false 72
coffee B-coffee-003 Demand-side narrative (consumer preference / brand-channel signals) remains supportive, but is secondary to supply/logistics drivers over the next day. 52 up fading 24h false 72

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260314T230000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term logistics/geopolitical disruption risk keeps an upside bias in coffee futures (risk premium / delay-to-delivery premium).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply",
 "trade_route_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Recent improvement/optimism around air-cargo and supply-chain management partially offsets disruption premium, increasing pullback risk after upside attempts.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "logistics_capacity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side narrative (consumer preference / brand-channel signals) remains supportive, but is secondary to supply/logistics drivers over the next day.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumer_demand",
 "pricing_pass_through"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Late-session opposing logistics signal(s) reduced net directional slope despite continued disruption backdrop."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "No per-trend physics/state-memory provided; inference relies on trend metadata, recency proxies and narrative tags."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Several supportive narratives are multi-day and require fresh confirmation to maintain conviction."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_skew_low_tier",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several admitted narratives show high low-authority share; confidence capped despite strong heat/coverage."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If disruption/logistics risk headlines continue to refresh without matching easing signals in the next 6h, upside bias remains."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional pro-logistics / capacity-improvement signals appear within the next 2\u20136h, expect further momentum fade and higher pullback probability."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If mixed logistics signals persist (disruption + easing), expect choppy tape and headline-driven swings over 24h."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if fresh evidence drops materially (no meaningful updates for >12h) and contradiction remains elevated."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 9,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 16,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 81,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 1,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 14,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 83,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 1,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 14,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 83,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 1,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 14,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 83,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 1,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 14,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 83,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 1,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": -7,
 "velocity_score": -16,
 "acceleration_score": -24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.71,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 29,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 5,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "No trend_physics / trend_state_memory provided; used timestamps, temporal_profile, sentiment tags, and evidence recency proxies as a fallback.",
 "State-change set to 'unchanged' because no prior market_state_table or state-memory direction was supplied (unknown prior)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}