Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-14 23:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Near-term logistics/geopolitical disruption risk keeps an upside bias in coffee futures (risk premium / delay-to-delivery premium). |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
72 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Recent improvement/optimism around air-cargo and supply-chain management partially offsets disruption premium, increasing pullback risk after upside attempts. |
46 |
down |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
72 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-003 |
Demand-side narrative (consumer preference / brand-channel signals) remains supportive, but is secondary to supply/logistics drivers over the next day. |
52 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260314T230000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term logistics/geopolitical disruption risk keeps an upside bias in coffee futures (risk premium / delay-to-delivery premium).",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"trade_route_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Recent improvement/optimism around air-cargo and supply-chain management partially offsets disruption premium, increasing pullback risk after upside attempts.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"logistics_capacity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side narrative (consumer preference / brand-channel signals) remains supportive, but is secondary to supply/logistics drivers over the next day.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumer_demand",
"pricing_pass_through"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Late-session opposing logistics signal(s) reduced net directional slope despite continued disruption backdrop."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "No per-trend physics/state-memory provided; inference relies on trend metadata, recency proxies and narrative tags."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Several supportive narratives are multi-day and require fresh confirmation to maintain conviction."
},
{
"flag": "authority_skew_low_tier",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several admitted narratives show high low-authority share; confidence capped despite strong heat/coverage."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If disruption/logistics risk headlines continue to refresh without matching easing signals in the next 6h, upside bias remains."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional pro-logistics / capacity-improvement signals appear within the next 2\u20136h, expect further momentum fade and higher pullback probability."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If mixed logistics signals persist (disruption + easing), expect choppy tape and headline-driven swings over 24h."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if fresh evidence drops materially (no meaningful updates for >12h) and contradiction remains elevated."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 16,
"fragility_score_0_100": 81,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 1,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 14,
"fragility_score_0_100": 83,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 1,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 14,
"fragility_score_0_100": 83,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 1,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 14,
"fragility_score_0_100": 83,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 1,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 14,
"fragility_score_0_100": 83,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 1,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": -7,
"velocity_score": -16,
"acceleration_score": -24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.71,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 29,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 5,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"No trend_physics / trend_state_memory provided; used timestamps, temporal_profile, sentiment tags, and evidence recency proxies as a fallback.",
"State-change set to 'unchanged' because no prior market_state_table or state-memory direction was supplied (unknown prior)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}