Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-COFFEE-001 (driver_mismatch_risk, medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-14T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-COFFEE-001 | Over the next 24h, coffee futures face net upward price pressure from elevated logistics/trade-flow disruption risk and higher freight friction, which can tighten effective deliverable supply and raise landed costs. | 58 | up | fading | 24h | false | 67 |
| coffee | B-COFFEE-002 | Over the next 6–24h, coffee futures could retrace if supply-side resilience/adaptation narratives dominate and logistics headlines de-escalate, reducing the scarcity premium. | 42 | down | stable | 24h | false | 67 |
| coffee | B-COFFEE-003 | Near-term volatility risk is elevated (headline-driven whipsaw) because mixed supply-chain and macro/policy noise increases fragility even if net bias remains upward. | 62 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 67 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260314T070000Z-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, coffee futures face net upward price pressure from elevated logistics/trade-flow disruption risk and higher freight friction, which can tighten effective deliverable supply and raise landed costs.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight: persistent disruption narrative around major carriers and trade lanes",
"origin_supply pass-through risk: export flow timing uncertainty (Brazil-linked commercial mentions)",
"policy friction: trade facilitation / regulatory headline noise raising operational uncertainty"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-002",
"B-COFFEE-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 6\u201324h, coffee futures could retrace if supply-side resilience/adaptation narratives (Brazil production resilience framing) dominate and logistics headlines de-escalate, reducing the scarcity premium.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply: resilience/adaptation narrative implying better medium-run supply response",
"headline decay: spike-and-fade patterns in disruption themes"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term volatility risk is elevated (headline-driven whipsaw) because the dominant drivers mix supply-chain risk with non-coffee-specific macro/policy noise, increasing fragility even if the net bias remains upward.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"mixed driver set: supply-chain disruption + policy noise",
"authority mix: high volume but skewed to lower-tier domains in aggregated bundles"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-COFFEE-001",
"B-COFFEE-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-001",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "driver_mismatch_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"summary": "Many admitted signals are coffee-adjacent (logistics/trade) rather than direct crop/weather supply confirmation; directional bias is therefore more fragile."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-002",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "contradiction_mixed_drivers",
"severity": "medium",
"summary": "Supply-chain disruption themes (bullish price pressure) coexist with supply-resilience/adaptation framing (bearish pressure), keeping reversal risk non-trivial."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-003",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "headline_decay_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"summary": "Recent timeseries shows a bullish peak followed by a pullback in the latest bucket, suggesting short-horizon momentum may be fading."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-004",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "authority_mix_skew",
"severity": "medium",
"summary": "Aggregated trend bundles show high volume but a notable share of lower-authority domains, reducing confidence in persistence."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics/shipping disruption evidence persists into the next 6h cycle without offsetting crop-improvement signals, bullish bias remains supported."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If mixed driver headlines continue (logistics + policy noise) while momentum oscillates, expect elevated intraday swings."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh supply-resilience/crop-improvement confirmation arrives (or disruption themes clearly de-escalate), bias can flip toward neutral quickly."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-trust, coffee-specific opposing signal appears within a 0\u20132h window and contradiction ratio spikes materially, kill-switch conditions may be met."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 27,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 27,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 10,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
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"acceleration_score": 2,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
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"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 30,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -2,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
"No v2 trend_physics / trend_state_memory fields were provided in the gated 5B payload; synthesis used available proxies (velocity_hint, temporal_profile, evidence_recency_proxy).",
"Several risk_anomalies/VIP items were not force-mapped to coffee due to weak commodity linkage; they were treated as unmapped background noise for this single-market run."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}