Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_pressure (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14T14:05:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B1_supply_risk_premium_supports_brent Geopolitical escalation and maritime chokepoint risk sustaining a supply‑risk premium, biasing Brent up next 6–24h. 62 up fading 6h false 69
crude_oil B2_macro_inventory_drag_caps_upside Macro and physical‑balance signals (macro risk tone, inventory/indicator framing, refinery‑outage demand loss) are capping upside and raise pullback risk. 57 down stable 24h false 69
crude_oil B3_headline_volatility_elevated Headline‑driven volatility remains elevated; price can whipsaw on incremental conflict vs stabilisation signals within the next 6 hours. 66 mixed accelerating 6h false 69

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260314-140500Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T14:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1_supply_risk_premium_supports_brent",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical/security escalation and maritime chokepoint risk are sustaining a supply-risk premium that biases Brent upward over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Iran/US/Israel-related conflict headlines and escalation risk",
 "Strait of Hormuz / maritime chokepoint security risk",
 "Military/defence-linked escalation narratives (CENTCOM / naval / regional security)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B2_macro_inventory_drag_caps_upside"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2_macro_inventory_drag_caps_upside",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro and physical-balance signals (macro risk tone, inventory/indicator framing, refinery-outage demand loss) are capping upside and raise pullback risk.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Macro-risk tone linked to US Federal Reserve / growth expectations",
 "Inventory/market-indicator narrative (US DOE / EIA-linked framing)",
 "Refinery outage narratives implying near-term crude demand softness"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1_supply_risk_premium_supports_brent"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3_headline_volatility_elevated",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Headline-driven volatility remains elevated; price can whipsaw on incremental conflict vs stabilisation signals within the next 6 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "High-density geopolitics feed (multiple conflict strands active)",
 "Mixed reinforcement quality (tier-A plus many low-authority singletons)",
 "Late-cycle stabilisation/supply-stability singletons creating two-way narrative risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1_supply_risk_premium_supports_brent",
 "B3_headline_volatility_elevated"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_pressure",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Strong supply-risk premium signals coexist with macro/inventory/refinery-demand drag narratives, keeping reversal risk elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Multiple fast-cycle geopolitics threads plus intermittent stabilisation/supply-stability items can flip short-horizon sentiment quickly."
 },
 {
 "flag": "source_quality_skew_low_tier_share",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Several influential late items are single-source and lower-authority; this increases fragility despite strong tier-A participation in the broader set."
 },
 {
 "flag": "recency_peak_fade",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Directional bullish pressure peaked earlier (notably ~06:00\u201309:00Z) and has since decayed into a low net score near the latest bucket."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "watch_long_bias if fresh escalation/chokepoint disruption headlines appear within the next 6h and directional score re-expands above +25."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "volatility_watch while contradiction_ratio stays elevated (>=0.45) or late-cycle stabilisation signals increase."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if macro/inventory framing strengthens (directional score crosses below +10 with rising contradiction ratio)."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "stay_flat if signals remain sparse and mixed (conviction <40 and fragility >75) for 3+ consecutive hourly buckets."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": -13,
 "acceleration_score": -13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 23,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 43,
 "acceleration_score": 37,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -50,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -16,
 "acceleration_score": -26,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -16,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 16,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior state unavailable; state_change computed assuming neutral prior -> new_bullish.",
 "Late buckets show rising contradiction_ratio; bullish state retained but momentum marked weakening.",
 "No high-trust opposing <=2h signal detected; kill-switch not triggered."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}