Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_pressure (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-14T14:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B1_supply_risk_premium_supports_brent | Geopolitical escalation and maritime chokepoint risk sustaining a supply‑risk premium, biasing Brent up next 6–24h. | 62 | up | fading | 6h | false | 69 |
| crude_oil | B2_macro_inventory_drag_caps_upside | Macro and physical‑balance signals (macro risk tone, inventory/indicator framing, refinery‑outage demand loss) are capping upside and raise pullback risk. | 57 | down | stable | 24h | false | 69 |
| crude_oil | B3_headline_volatility_elevated | Headline‑driven volatility remains elevated; price can whipsaw on incremental conflict vs stabilisation signals within the next 6 hours. | 66 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 69 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260314-140500Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T14:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1_supply_risk_premium_supports_brent",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical/security escalation and maritime chokepoint risk are sustaining a supply-risk premium that biases Brent upward over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Iran/US/Israel-related conflict headlines and escalation risk",
"Strait of Hormuz / maritime chokepoint security risk",
"Military/defence-linked escalation narratives (CENTCOM / naval / regional security)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B2_macro_inventory_drag_caps_upside"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2_macro_inventory_drag_caps_upside",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro and physical-balance signals (macro risk tone, inventory/indicator framing, refinery-outage demand loss) are capping upside and raise pullback risk.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Macro-risk tone linked to US Federal Reserve / growth expectations",
"Inventory/market-indicator narrative (US DOE / EIA-linked framing)",
"Refinery outage narratives implying near-term crude demand softness"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1_supply_risk_premium_supports_brent"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3_headline_volatility_elevated",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Headline-driven volatility remains elevated; price can whipsaw on incremental conflict vs stabilisation signals within the next 6 hours.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"High-density geopolitics feed (multiple conflict strands active)",
"Mixed reinforcement quality (tier-A plus many low-authority singletons)",
"Late-cycle stabilisation/supply-stability singletons creating two-way narrative risk"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1_supply_risk_premium_supports_brent",
"B3_headline_volatility_elevated"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_pressure",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Strong supply-risk premium signals coexist with macro/inventory/refinery-demand drag narratives, keeping reversal risk elevated."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Multiple fast-cycle geopolitics threads plus intermittent stabilisation/supply-stability items can flip short-horizon sentiment quickly."
},
{
"flag": "source_quality_skew_low_tier_share",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Several influential late items are single-source and lower-authority; this increases fragility despite strong tier-A participation in the broader set."
},
{
"flag": "recency_peak_fade",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Directional bullish pressure peaked earlier (notably ~06:00\u201309:00Z) and has since decayed into a low net score near the latest bucket."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "watch_long_bias if fresh escalation/chokepoint disruption headlines appear within the next 6h and directional score re-expands above +25."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "volatility_watch while contradiction_ratio stays elevated (>=0.45) or late-cycle stabilisation signals increase."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if macro/inventory framing strengthens (directional score crosses below +10 with rising contradiction ratio)."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "stay_flat if signals remain sparse and mixed (conviction <40 and fragility >75) for 3+ consecutive hourly buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": -13,
"acceleration_score": -13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 23,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 43,
"acceleration_score": 37,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -50,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -16,
"acceleration_score": -26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -16,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 16,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior state unavailable; state_change computed assuming neutral prior -> new_bullish.",
"Late buckets show rising contradiction_ratio; bullish state retained but momentum marked weakening.",
"No high-trust opposing <=2h signal detected; kill-switch not triggered."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}