Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: (none)
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_volatility
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude-001 Geopolitical/security risk-premium elevated (Iran/Israel/Iraq + chokepoint incidents), biasing Brent crude higher over next 6h vs flat baseline. 62 up fading 6h false 61
crude_oil B-crude-002 Next 24h Brent crude biased upward but with de-escalation/mean-reversion risk; net bullish with elevated volatility. 58 up stable 24h false 61

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-2026-03-14T12:00:00Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical/security risk-premium remains elevated (Iran/Israel/Iraq + chokepoint/security incident framing), biasing Brent crude higher over the next 6 hours versus a flat baseline.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Iran-related geopolitical conflict cluster (fresh)",
 "Israeli military geopolitical conflict cluster (fresh)",
 "Iraq oil supply disruption theme (recent but partially outside 24h window)",
 "Strait of Hormuz / maritime security incident framing",
 "OPEC+ / sanctions risk framing as supply-tightening tail risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Refinery outage / downstream disruption signals implying near-term crude demand softness",
 "Energy-security / market-stability narratives that can reduce risk premium if de-escalation occurs"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude remains biased upward but with meaningful de-escalation/mean-reversion risk; net outcome is bullish with elevated volatility.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Persistence of security/chokepoint narratives across multiple sources",
 "Supply-disruption framing (Iraq/Iran adjacency) not fully resolved within the evidence window"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Headline-driven de-escalation can rapidly compress risk premium",
 "Downstream/refining constraints can translate into crude demand headwinds"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude-001",
 "B-crude-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "event_driven_volatility",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Current bullish bias is dominated by geopolitics/security narratives that historically reprice quickly on de-escalation headlines."
 },
 {
 "flag": "momentum_fade_after_spike",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Signal timeseries shows a sharp bullish impulse (early morning UTC) followed by a lower (but still positive) net score into the latest buckets."
 },
 {
 "flag": "mixed_driver_contradiction",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Supply-risk bullish drivers coexist with refinery/downstream disruption and market-stability narratives (bearish/offsetting)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_skew_low",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several clusters show high low-authority share despite presence of Tier-A anchors, increasing fragility/whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Some supporting themes are slightly outside the last-24h allocation window; they remain context but are downweighted in the timeseries."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional confirmed escalation / supply-disruption evidence within the next 2\u20136 hours (new A-tier corroboration) without a simultaneous de-escalation headline."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises (more offsetting refinery/demand signals) while net bullish pressure remains positive."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh de-escalation / market-stabilisation signals arrive and net sentiment drops toward the neutral band (|directional_score| < 20)."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Net sentiment remains bullish but conviction deteriorates (<45) while fragility rises (>70)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 11,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 25,
 "acceleration_score": 22,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -33,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 26,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": -30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "No 5A physics payload present; used available 5B fields (timestamps, temporal profiles, sentiment labels, velocity_hint proxies) with conservative recency weighting.",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change computed using an implicit neutral baseline -> new_bullish.",
 "Some signals fall slightly outside the last-24h timeseries window but remain in context; they are downweighted via stale_evidence_count."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}