Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: (none)
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_volatility
- generated_at: 2026-03-14T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-crude-001 | Geopolitical/security risk-premium elevated (Iran/Israel/Iraq + chokepoint incidents), biasing Brent crude higher over next 6h vs flat baseline. | 62 | up | fading | 6h | false | 61 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-002 | Next 24h Brent crude biased upward but with de-escalation/mean-reversion risk; net bullish with elevated volatility. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-2026-03-14T12:00:00Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical/security risk-premium remains elevated (Iran/Israel/Iraq + chokepoint/security incident framing), biasing Brent crude higher over the next 6 hours versus a flat baseline.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Iran-related geopolitical conflict cluster (fresh)",
"Israeli military geopolitical conflict cluster (fresh)",
"Iraq oil supply disruption theme (recent but partially outside 24h window)",
"Strait of Hormuz / maritime security incident framing",
"OPEC+ / sanctions risk framing as supply-tightening tail risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Refinery outage / downstream disruption signals implying near-term crude demand softness",
"Energy-security / market-stability narratives that can reduce risk premium if de-escalation occurs"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude remains biased upward but with meaningful de-escalation/mean-reversion risk; net outcome is bullish with elevated volatility.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Persistence of security/chokepoint narratives across multiple sources",
"Supply-disruption framing (Iraq/Iran adjacency) not fully resolved within the evidence window"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Headline-driven de-escalation can rapidly compress risk premium",
"Downstream/refining constraints can translate into crude demand headwinds"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude-001",
"B-crude-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "event_driven_volatility",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Current bullish bias is dominated by geopolitics/security narratives that historically reprice quickly on de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"flag": "momentum_fade_after_spike",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Signal timeseries shows a sharp bullish impulse (early morning UTC) followed by a lower (but still positive) net score into the latest buckets."
},
{
"flag": "mixed_driver_contradiction",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Supply-risk bullish drivers coexist with refinery/downstream disruption and market-stability narratives (bearish/offsetting)."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skew_low",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several clusters show high low-authority share despite presence of Tier-A anchors, increasing fragility/whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Some supporting themes are slightly outside the last-24h allocation window; they remain context but are downweighted in the timeseries."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional confirmed escalation / supply-disruption evidence within the next 2\u20136 hours (new A-tier corroboration) without a simultaneous de-escalation headline."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises (more offsetting refinery/demand signals) while net bullish pressure remains positive."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh de-escalation / market-stabilisation signals arrive and net sentiment drops toward the neutral band (|directional_score| < 20)."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Net sentiment remains bullish but conviction deteriorates (<45) while fragility rises (>70)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 11,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 25,
"acceleration_score": 22,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -33,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No 5A physics payload present; used available 5B fields (timestamps, temporal profiles, sentiment labels, velocity_hint proxies) with conservative recency weighting.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change computed using an implicit neutral baseline -> new_bullish.",
"Some signals fall slightly outside the last-24h timeseries window but remain in context; they are downweighted via stale_evidence_count."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}