Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-13 09:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-URN-001 | Policy/regulatory signals remain broadly supportive for nuclear build/operations, sustaining demand-side tailwinds for uranium. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
| uranium | B-URN-002 | Supply-chain/geopolitical risk narratives (producer concentration, transport, jurisdictional risk) keep a tightening premium embedded in uranium pricing expectations. | 58 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 62 |
| uranium | B-URN-003 | Near-term direction is fragile because the freshest items include multiple single-source / low-diversity signals; headline-driven whipsaw risk is elevated. | 55 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "CIS-uranium-20260313-090000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-URN-001", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Policy/regulatory signals remain broadly supportive for nuclear build/operations, sustaining demand-side tailwinds for uranium.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "policy_nuclear", "reactor_demand", "regulatory" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-URN-003" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-URN-002", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Supply-chain/geopolitical risk narratives (producer concentration, transport, jurisdictional risk) keep a tightening premium embedded in uranium pricing expectations.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_supply_risk", "supply_contracting", "supply_chain" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-URN-003" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-URN-003", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Near-term direction is fragile because the freshest items include multiple single-source / low-diversity signals; headline-driven whipsaw risk is elevated.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "inventory", "data_quality", "narrative_flow" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-URN-001", "B-URN-002", "B-URN-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Material share of supportive nuclear-policy / innovation narratives extends beyond 72h; persisted as background with capped weight." }, { "flag": "data_sparsity", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Signals are narrative-heavy (policy/regulatory/innovation) with limited direct inventory/flow datapoints in the admitted bundle." }, { "flag": "low_authority_concentration_tail", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Several freshest VIP items are single-source with low domain diversity; increases fragility and whipsaw risk." }, { "flag": "headline_volatility_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Mixed-quality headline cadence can cause short-horizon reversals even when the medium-term thesis is supportive." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Additional corroborated (multi-source) policy/supply-tightness headlines arrive within the next 6\u201324h without a meaningful opposing catalyst." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "A high-authority, very-recent (<=2h) opposing signal emerges (e.g., credible supply surprise or policy rollback) causing a contradiction spike." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Single-source VIP items continue to cluster in time (high cadence) while consensus remains thin." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Directional score stays inside neutral band (|score|<20) for multiple hours while contradiction ratio remains elevated." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, 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"2026-03-13T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 16, "acceleration_score": 18, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -18, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 12, "acceleration_score": 18, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 10, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 12, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } } }