Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: single_source_outliers_present
- generated_at: 2026-03-13T06:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-6H-001 | Near-term uranium futures sentiment remains net-positive (policy + nuclear build/extension narratives + supply-chain/geopolitical risk premium), supporting upward bias over the next 6 hours. | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| uranium | B-UR-24H-001 | Over the next 24 hours, uranium futures sentiment is more likely to stay supported than fade, but confidence is capped by single-source outliers and mixed authority quality. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-6B-uranium-20260313T060000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-6H-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium futures sentiment remains net-positive (policy + nuclear build/extension narratives + supply-chain/geopolitical risk premium), supporting upward bias over the next 6 hours.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"reactor_demand",
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"supply_contracting"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"VIP-015 (single-source negative geopolitical/supply-chain commentary; not corroborated)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-24H-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, uranium futures sentiment is more likely to stay supported than fade, but confidence is capped by single-source outliers and mixed authority quality.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"inventory",
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"supply_contracting"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"singleton/low-diversity VIP outliers (higher noise/fragility)"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-6H-001",
"B-UR-24H-001"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "single_source_outliers_present",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "Multiple VIP items are single-domain / low-diversity; increases signal noise."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_low_tier_overhang",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "Several trend evidence bundles show high low-authority share, capping conviction."
},
{
"flag": "reversal_watch_due_to_mixed_micro-signals",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "A negative singleton (VIP-015) + reputational amplifier anomalies implies higher headline fragility vs conviction."
},
{
"flag": "reputational_amplifier_sources_detected",
"level": "low",
"detail": "Shadow-stream anomalies flagged around Trading Economics / NRC / India policy topics; treat as noise-risk until corroborated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain directional_score_signed >= +35 for the next 2-4 hours with contradiction_ratio <= 0.30."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Directional_score_signed drops below +20 OR contradiction_ratio rises above 0.35 on fresh (<6h) opposing evidence."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more new single-source VIP items appear within 2 hours (either direction), raising fragility above 70."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Late-breaking opposing high-authority signal (<=2h) appears and materially increases contradiction vs prior cycle."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Data sparsity persists (fresh_evidence_count ~0) while directional_score remains between -20 and +20."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 27,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No workflow5a_output trend_physics provided; used sentiment/heat/recency proxies from workflow5b trends/VIPs for momentum & timeseries shaping.",
"No explicit prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided to 6B; state_change set to new_bullish using assumed neutral baseline.",
"Timeseries buckets derived from trend/vip publish timestamps and recency proxies (not from per-record timestamp distribution).",
"No <=2h high-authority opposing signal detected; late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}