Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures (NG)
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: NG
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_catalyst_cluster (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-13T17:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term geopolitical/LNG-shipping disruption risk is adding upside (risk-premium) pressure to natural gas futures over the next 6–24 hours. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
74 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Direction is fragile because the catalyst set is event-driven; rapid de-escalation or clarification could unwind the risk premium quickly. |
58 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
74 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Net downside pressure from demand-side narratives is present but currently secondary to supply/security risk signals. |
35 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260313T170000Z-natural_gas-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures (NG)",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term geopolitical/LNG-shipping disruption risk is adding upside (risk-premium) pressure to natural gas futures over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Ras Laffan / Qatar-linked supply-disruption narratives",
"Iran / Gulf security recurrence (marine-security risk framing)",
"Russia\u2013Ukraine infrastructure disruption narratives",
"LNG maritime logistics flow/disruption narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Demand-softening / normalisation narratives (weakly evidenced in this packet)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Direction is fragile because the catalyst set is event-driven; rapid de-escalation or clarification could unwind the risk premium quickly.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"High concentration in geopolitical risk themes",
"Limited direct coverage of weather/storage fundamentals in admitted signals"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"A confirmed, persistent physical supply outage with multi-day verification"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Net downside pressure from demand-side narratives is present but currently secondary to supply/security risk signals.",
"probability_pct": 35,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Isolated 'gas demand dynamics' signal"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Multiple fresh disruption / security risk signals within the last ~6 hours"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "event_driven_catalyst_cluster",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Most admitted pressure is geopolitical / logistics-risk driven (fast-to-flip)."
},
{
"flag": "fundamental_coverage_gap",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Limited direct weather/storage signals in this input; increases fragility even with strong narrative heat."
},
{
"flag": "echo_risk_from_single_source_items",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source; treated as low-weight context."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If disruption/security narratives continue to refresh (new evidence within next 2\u20136h) without credible de-escalation signals."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If additional logistics/security headlines appear (especially Strait-of-Hormuz/LNG-shipping related) in the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority de-escalation/clarification signal arrives within a 2h window (would likely compress risk premium)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If headline flow quiets and no fresh confirmations appear for >12h (momentum likely to weaken)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 17,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -27,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 83,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 83,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 83,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 83,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -23,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No workflow5A physics / trend_state_memory fields provided; used heuristic recency weighting from timestamps (newest evidence / peak buckets) and trend metadata (heat, velocity_hint, narrative labels).",
"Prior market state not supplied; state_change set as 'new_bullish' using neutral baseline assumption for first observation."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}