Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures (NG)
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: NG
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_catalyst_cluster (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-13T17:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term geopolitical/LNG-shipping disruption risk is adding upside (risk-premium) pressure to natural gas futures over the next 6–24 hours. 62 up accelerating 24h false 74
natural_gas B-NG-002 Direction is fragile because the catalyst set is event-driven; rapid de-escalation or clarification could unwind the risk premium quickly. 58 mixed stable 6h false 74
natural_gas B-NG-003 Net downside pressure from demand-side narratives is present but currently secondary to supply/security risk signals. 35 down fading 24h false 74

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260313T170000Z-natural_gas-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures (NG)",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term geopolitical/LNG-shipping disruption risk is adding upside (risk-premium) pressure to natural gas futures over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Ras Laffan / Qatar-linked supply-disruption narratives",
 "Iran / Gulf security recurrence (marine-security risk framing)",
 "Russia\u2013Ukraine infrastructure disruption narratives",
 "LNG maritime logistics flow/disruption narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Demand-softening / normalisation narratives (weakly evidenced in this packet)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Direction is fragile because the catalyst set is event-driven; rapid de-escalation or clarification could unwind the risk premium quickly.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "High concentration in geopolitical risk themes",
 "Limited direct coverage of weather/storage fundamentals in admitted signals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "A confirmed, persistent physical supply outage with multi-day verification"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Net downside pressure from demand-side narratives is present but currently secondary to supply/security risk signals.",
 "probability_pct": 35,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Isolated 'gas demand dynamics' signal"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Multiple fresh disruption / security risk signals within the last ~6 hours"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "event_driven_catalyst_cluster",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Most admitted pressure is geopolitical / logistics-risk driven (fast-to-flip)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "fundamental_coverage_gap",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Limited direct weather/storage signals in this input; increases fragility even with strong narrative heat."
 },
 {
 "flag": "echo_risk_from_single_source_items",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source; treated as low-weight context."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If disruption/security narratives continue to refresh (new evidence within next 2\u20136h) without credible de-escalation signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional logistics/security headlines appear (especially Strait-of-Hormuz/LNG-shipping related) in the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority de-escalation/clarification signal arrives within a 2h window (would likely compress risk premium)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline flow quiets and no fresh confirmations appear for >12h (momentum likely to weaken)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 17,
 "acceleration_score": 14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -27,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 83,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 83,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 83,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 29,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 83,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -23,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No workflow5A physics / trend_state_memory fields provided; used heuristic recency weighting from timestamps (newest evidence / peak buckets) and trend metadata (heat, velocity_hint, narrative labels).",
 "Prior market state not supplied; state_change set as 'new_bullish' using neutral baseline assumption for first observation."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}