Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
  • generated_at: 2026-03-13T06:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Over the next 24h, lithium futures have net upward pressure from EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity build-out narratives outweighing near-term policy/regulatory noise. 58 up stable 24h false 62
lithium B-LI-002 Over the next 6h, directional edge is vulnerable to reversal/whipsaw because a portion of the latest signal flow is policy/regulatory-risk tagged and/or single-source (echo-risk), limiting confidence. 46 mixed accelerating 6h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-6B-20260313T060000Z-lithium-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures have net upward pressure from EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity build-out narratives outweighing near-term policy/regulatory noise.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "battery_supply_chain",
 "refining_capacity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, directional edge is vulnerable to reversal/whipsaw because a portion of the latest signal flow is policy/regulatory-risk tagged and/or single-source (echo-risk), limiting confidence.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "china_policy",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Signal set is narrative-heavy (EV/battery/tech themes) with limited direct lithium pricing/inventory datapoints in the admitted feed; conviction capped."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "contradiction_spike_watch",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Co-existing policy/regulatory-risk tagged items alongside demand-expansion narratives increases short-horizon whipsaw probability."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "echo_risk_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Several VIP/outlier items are single-source; treat as weakly-confirmed until corroborated."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=24h) high-authority evidence reinforces EV/battery capacity expansion without new opposing regulatory shocks."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very fresh (<=2h) opposing policy/inventory signal appears, or contradiction ratio rises materially versus the last cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If policy/regulatory-risk tagged items cluster within a short time window (<=6h) causing rapid sentiment oscillation."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": -30,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 30,
 "acceleration_score": 60,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -20,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in input; used recency proxies (newest_timestamp) and trend temporal_profile as approximations.",
 "Single-market constraint enforced: only lithium mapped signals contributed to state.",
 "Negative/risk-tagged items treated as reversal/fragility contributors rather than dominant bearish thesis due to limited corroboration and indirect price linkage."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}