Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
- generated_at: 2026-03-13T06:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Over the next 24h, lithium futures have net upward pressure from EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity build-out narratives outweighing near-term policy/regulatory noise. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
| lithium | B-LI-002 | Over the next 6h, directional edge is vulnerable to reversal/whipsaw because a portion of the latest signal flow is policy/regulatory-risk tagged and/or single-source (echo-risk), limiting confidence. | 46 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-6B-20260313T060000Z-lithium-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures have net upward pressure from EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity build-out narratives outweighing near-term policy/regulatory noise.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand",
"battery_supply_chain",
"refining_capacity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, directional edge is vulnerable to reversal/whipsaw because a portion of the latest signal flow is policy/regulatory-risk tagged and/or single-source (echo-risk), limiting confidence.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"china_policy",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Signal set is narrative-heavy (EV/battery/tech themes) with limited direct lithium pricing/inventory datapoints in the admitted feed; conviction capped."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "contradiction_spike_watch",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Co-existing policy/regulatory-risk tagged items alongside demand-expansion narratives increases short-horizon whipsaw probability."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "echo_risk_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Several VIP/outlier items are single-source; treat as weakly-confirmed until corroborated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=24h) high-authority evidence reinforces EV/battery capacity expansion without new opposing regulatory shocks."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very fresh (<=2h) opposing policy/inventory signal appears, or contradiction ratio rises materially versus the last cycle."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If policy/regulatory-risk tagged items cluster within a short time window (<=6h) causing rapid sentiment oscillation."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": -30,
"acceleration_score": -60,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 30,
"acceleration_score": 60,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -20,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in input; used recency proxies (newest_timestamp) and trend temporal_profile as approximations.",
"Single-market constraint enforced: only lithium mapped signals contributed to state.",
"Negative/risk-tagged items treated as reversal/fragility contributors rather than dominant bearish thesis due to limited corroboration and indirect price linkage."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}