Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-copper-001: data_sparsity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-13T09:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-001 |
Near-term copper futures bias remains upward as fresh policy/electrification demand narratives cluster, while supply-tightness framing persists. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| copper |
B-copper-002 |
Over the next 24h, upside bias is likely to persist but is fragile (news-driven), with pullback risk if the correction narrative gains higher-authority confirmation. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| copper |
B-copper-003 |
There is a credible risk of a short-term dip/mean-reversion attempt after the prior run-up, driven by 'correction below key level' chatter and positioning sensitivity. |
38 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_copper_2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper futures bias remains upward as fresh policy/electrification demand narratives cluster, while supply-tightness framing persists.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"inventory",
"mine_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-copper-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, upside bias is likely to persist but is fragile (news-driven), with pullback risk if the correction narrative gains higher-authority confirmation.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-copper-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "There is a credible risk of a short-term dip/mean-reversion attempt after the prior run-up, driven by 'correction below key level' chatter and positioning sensitivity.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"inventory",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002",
"B-copper-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Intraday directional inference is supported by a small cluster of very recent items; conviction is therefore capped and fragility elevated."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"type": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Mixed intraday tone (tight-supply / electrification demand vs. correction/pullback framing) elevates reversal risk to medium."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-copper-003",
"market": "copper",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Policy/trade headlines (US/China framing) can rapidly flip risk appetite and amplify short-horizon volatility."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-copper-004",
"market": "copper",
"type": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Several admitted themes are long-running; current bullishness relies on fresh clustering to avoid becoming persistence-only."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh pro-demand / supply-tightness signals continue to arrive across the next 6h with low contradiction (contradiction_ratio <= 0.25)."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a higher-authority, very fresh (<= 2h) downside catalyst appears and contradiction_ratio rises materially versus the last 6h."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_score swings by >= 25 points within 2 consecutive hourly buckets (headline-driven whipsaw)."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If net_sentiment remains near zero (|directional_score_signed| < 20) for >= 6 consecutive hourly buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 32,
"acceleration_score": 32,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -39,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 35,
"acceleration_score": 60,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 35,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=copper.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided in input; reversal risk derived from mixed intraday evidence tone and correction-risk framing.",
"A portion of admitted evidence is low-authority / single-source; this is reflected in elevated fragility and capped conviction."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}