Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-copper-001: data_sparsity (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-13T09:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Near-term copper futures bias remains upward as fresh policy/electrification demand narratives cluster, while supply-tightness framing persists. 62 up accelerating 6h false 58
copper B-copper-002 Over the next 24h, upside bias is likely to persist but is fragile (news-driven), with pullback risk if the correction narrative gains higher-authority confirmation. 58 up stable 24h false 58
copper B-copper-003 There is a credible risk of a short-term dip/mean-reversion attempt after the prior run-up, driven by 'correction below key level' chatter and positioning sensitivity. 38 down fading 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_copper_2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper futures bias remains upward as fresh policy/electrification demand narratives cluster, while supply-tightness framing persists.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "inventory",
 "mine_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-copper-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, upside bias is likely to persist but is fragile (news-driven), with pullback risk if the correction narrative gains higher-authority confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-copper-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "There is a credible risk of a short-term dip/mean-reversion attempt after the prior run-up, driven by 'correction below key level' chatter and positioning sensitivity.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "inventory",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002",
 "B-copper-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Intraday directional inference is supported by a small cluster of very recent items; conviction is therefore capped and fragility elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "contradiction_spike",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Mixed intraday tone (tight-supply / electrification demand vs. correction/pullback framing) elevates reversal risk to medium."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Policy/trade headlines (US/China framing) can rapidly flip risk appetite and amplify short-horizon volatility."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-copper-004",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Several admitted themes are long-running; current bullishness relies on fresh clustering to avoid becoming persistence-only."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh pro-demand / supply-tightness signals continue to arrive across the next 6h with low contradiction (contradiction_ratio <= 0.25)."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a higher-authority, very fresh (<= 2h) downside catalyst appears and contradiction_ratio rises materially versus the last 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional_score swings by >= 25 points within 2 consecutive hourly buckets (headline-driven whipsaw)."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If net_sentiment remains near zero (|directional_score_signed| < 20) for >= 6 consecutive hourly buckets."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
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 "acceleration_score": 10,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
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 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 32,
 "acceleration_score": 32,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -39,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -25,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 35,
 "acceleration_score": 60,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 35,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=copper.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided in input; reversal risk derived from mixed intraday evidence tone and correction-risk framing.",
 "A portion of admitted evidence is low-authority / single-source; this is reflected in elevated fragility and capped conviction."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}