Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: momentum_fade_last_6h
- generated_at: 2026-03-13 18:45 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-COF-001 | Near-term bias upward due to persistent logistics/trade-disruption risk and broad agricultural risk framing. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 67 |
| coffee | B-COF-002 | Demand-side narrative supportive but secondary versus supply-chain risk, providing additional upside support rather than a primary catalyst. | 54 | up | fading | 24h | false | 67 |
| coffee | B-COF-003 | Reversal/mean-reversion risk elevated over the next 6–24h because the latest impulse appears headline-driven and partially cross-commodity. | 57 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 67 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap-6B-coffee-20260313T184500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T18:45:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-COF-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing remains biased upward due to persistent logistics/trade-disruption risk and broad agricultural risk framing, implying higher delivered cost/availability uncertainty.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"crop_conditions"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COF-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COF-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side narrative (major chain expansion/consumer product attention) is supportive but secondary versus supply-chain risk, providing additional upside support rather than a primary catalyst.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumer_demand_proxy (retail/chain expansion mentions)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COF-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COF-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Reversal/mean-reversion risk is elevated over the next 6\u201324h because the latest impulse appears headline-driven and partially cross-commodity (not coffee-specific), so price may fail to follow-through without fresh origin/crop confirmation.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"data_sparsity_in_coffee-specific fundamentals",
"headline_whipsaw_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COF-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-COF-001",
"B-COF-002",
"B-COF-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "momentum_fade_last_6h",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional pressure peaked earlier in the session and has eased into the close of the 24h window."
},
{
"flag": "cross_domain_signal_bleed",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several admitted drivers are broad logistics/geopolitical/agri-risk narratives that may not translate cleanly to coffee-specific supply."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Multiple trends show high low-authority share despite Tier-A anchors; raises whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "weather_risk_singleton",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Weather/climate anomaly risk signal appears as a single-source risk anomaly; treat as watchlist context only unless corroborated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh origin/crop-condition confirmation arrives (new high-authority updates) while logistics disruption narrative persists, directional bias may re-strengthen."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh updates reduce disruption risk (de-escalation / normalisation) or if contradictory signals rise, expect potential bullish-to-neutral transition."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio increases and momentum continues fading, expect choppy/range behaviour rather than trend follow-through."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If no coffee-specific fundamental updates arrive and signals remain mostly cross-commodity headlines, conviction may degrade further."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as coffee from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No per-record timestamp physics provided to 6B; timeseries buckets are conservative reconstructions from admitted signal recency/temporal profiles (structure preserved; confidence capped).",
"Several trends are logistics/geopolitical/agri-risk narratives; mapped to coffee via relevance to origin supply, freight, and coffee-sector entities where present. Unmapped/low-specificity items were suppressed."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}