Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_logistics_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-13 06:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Coffee futures have an upside bias over the next 24h as supply/friction narratives (logistics + origin risk) and input-cost pressure dominate the current signal mix. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
62 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Near-term (next 6h) coffee sentiment is strengthening bullish as the most recent admitted drivers skew toward cost/supply-tightening rather than demand weakness. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
62 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-003 |
Volatility risk is elevated: coffee sentiment may whipsaw between supply-tightening narratives and countervailing 'improved flows/innovation' narratives. |
55 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-coffee-20260313T060000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures have an upside bias over the next 24h as supply/friction narratives (logistics + origin risk) and input-cost pressure dominate the current signal mix.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Origin/agricultural risk signals (Ghana / crop-risk framing)",
"Logistics disruption overhang (shipping / trade-route friction themes)",
"Late-surge input cost pressure (fertiliser cost narrative)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Brazil trade/institution signals that can imply smoother supply/flow (e.g., exporter council / innovation themes)",
"Low-directness risk: some admitted signals are cross-commodity logistics rather than coffee-specific"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term (next 6h) coffee sentiment is strengthening bullish as the most recent admitted drivers skew toward cost/supply-tightening rather than demand weakness.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Fresh acceleration from 'input costs (fertilisers)' trend timing peak near 2026-03-13T05:00Z",
"Persistent logistics-risk background"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Potential mean-reversion if macro/logistics headlines fade without follow-through"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Volatility risk is elevated: coffee sentiment may whipsaw between supply-tightening narratives and countervailing 'improved flows/innovation' narratives.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical/logistics headline sensitivity",
"Mixed sign of supply-side narratives (risk vs resilience)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If confirming evidence concentrates in one direction (either clear disruption or clear improvement), whipsaw risk falls"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "macro_logistics_overhang",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "A meaningful share of bullish pressure is derived from broad shipping/geopolitical logistics narratives that can fade quickly."
},
{
"risk_flag": "mixed_supply_narrative",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Supply-side signals include both tightening (risk/cost) and easing (innovation/trade flow) themes, raising reversal risk."
},
{
"risk_flag": "data_indirectness",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Several admitted trends are cross-commodity or sector-level (not strictly coffee-specific), increasing fragility versus a price-anchored feed."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish pressure persists in the next 1\u20132 hours (no fresh opposing high-authority signal) and directional score remains >= +20."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh opposing (bearish) supply/flow confirmation arrives and contradiction ratio rises materially versus the last 6h buckets."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score changes by >= 15 points within 2\u20133 hours (headline-driven whipsaw regime)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score drifts into the neutral band (-20 to +20) with shrinking fresh-evidence counts."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": true,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided in 5B; reversal risk derives from mixed sign of admitted supply narratives and indirectness of some macro/logistics signals.",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no fresh high-authority opposing signal within <=2h of snapshot).",
"unmapped_signal_count=0 (all admitted signals mapped to target coffee via direct coffee references or clear supply-chain linkage).",
"State_change computed with unknown_prior; assumed prior neutral baseline => new_bullish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}