Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: crude_oil
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-03-13 18:10 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CO-001 Near-term geopolitical escalation risk around Iran / Gulf dynamics is skewing Brent crude oil futures toward upside risk over the next 6 hours. 66 up accelerating 6h false 63
crude_oil B-CO-002 Maritime chokepoint / shipping disruption narratives are increasing the probability of supply-flow constraints, keeping Brent supported over the next 24 hours, with elevated volatility. 60 up stable 24h false 63
crude_oil B-CO-003 Macro/FX cross-currents (USD / central-bank messaging) can cap or partially mean-revert any Brent rally within 24 hours despite the supply-risk backdrop. 42 mixed fading 24h false 63

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260313T181000Z-crude_oil", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T18:10:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-CO-001", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Near-term geopolitical escalation risk around Iran / Gulf dynamics is skewing Brent crude oil futures toward upside risk over the next 6 hours.", "probability_pct": 66, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Iran-linked conflict / security incident narratives (multiple high-authority mentions)", "Military escalation and infrastructure-threat framing", "Risk anomaly: sanctions / enforcement headlines increasing perceived supply risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Rapid de-escalation headlines (not observed in this batch)", "Macro risk-off shock reducing near-term demand (only weakly present)" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-CO-002", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Maritime chokepoint / shipping disruption narratives are increasing the probability of supply-flow constraints, keeping Brent supported over the next 24 hours, with elevated volatility.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "IEA / shipping-route chokepoint narratives", "Outlier logistics signals (Lloyd’s List / Vortexa / project44) reinforcing operational-risk backdrop", "Port / shipping risk anomalies (Salalah / related shipping nodes)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Evidence concentration in single-source VIP outliers (requires confirmation)", "Fast normalization of shipping risk premiums" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-CO-003", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Macro/FX cross-currents (USD / central-bank messaging) can cap or partially mean-revert any Brent rally within 24 hours despite the supply-risk backdrop.", "probability_pct": 42, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "USD narrative appearing as a separate trend strand", "Fed / macro recovery framing increasing two-way risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "If supply disruption narratives intensify further, macro headwinds may be overwhelmed" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-CO-001", "B-CO-002" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Oil direction is headline-driven (geopolitics + shipping), increasing reversal/mean-reversion risk on de-escalation." }, { "flag": "single_source_outlier_cluster", "severity": "medium", "details": "Multiple VIP/outlier signals are single-source (echo-risk), so they support volatility more than conviction." }, { "flag": "macro_crosscurrent", "severity": "medium", "details": "USD/Fed strands add two-way pressure that can dampen follow-through even under supply-risk narratives." }, { "flag": "data_authority_mixture", "severity": "medium", "details": "Authority-tier mix includes a meaningful low-tier share in supporting bundles; treat as supportive but fragile." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Additional high-authority confirmation of supply disruption / escalation within the next 2–6 hours without offsetting de-escalation headlines." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Chokepoint/shipping narratives persist while single-source operational alerts continue appearing (echo-risk cluster)." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Credible de-escalation / reopening of flows emerges or USD strength narrative intensifies, creating fresh opposite-direction pressure." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio spikes and directional score falls back into neutral band (|score| < 20) for multiple hours." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 0, 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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 14, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -22, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 13, "acceleration_score": 21, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 70, "bullish_pressure_score": 86, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 70, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": 20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 65, "bullish_pressure_score": 82, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 65, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 72, "bullish_pressure_score": 88, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 72, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 68, "bullish_pressure_score": 84, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 68, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -11, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 64, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, 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"2026-03-13T12:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 62, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 62, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 61, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 61, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 59, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, 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"fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 56, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 56, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 51, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 51, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 49, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 49, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] } }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 72, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 14, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior.", "Directional mapping interprets geopolitics/shipping/supply-disruption clusters as price-upside risk for Brent." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }