Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: headline_driven_volatility (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-13T14:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B1 |
Near-term Middle East / maritime-chokepoint risk is elevating the oil risk premium, biasing Brent upward. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B2 |
Refinery outages / capacity interruption narratives are supportive for crude and products, keeping Brent supported into the next day. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B3 |
Macro/FX headwinds (USD strength narrative + demand-softness proxies) may cap upside and increase pullback risk after the spike. |
46 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-6B-20260313T140000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term Middle East / maritime-chokepoint risk is elevating the oil risk premium, biasing Brent upward.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight: maritime chokepoints / route security headlines (Iran/Iraq-linked lanes)",
"geopolitics: escalation-risk clustering (Iran/US/Israel mentions across multiple high-authority sources)",
"supply_disruption: disruption narratives around transit/security"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Refinery outages / capacity interruption narratives are supportive for crude and products, keeping Brent supported into the next day.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"inventory/product_tightness: refinery outage/capacity interruption theme",
"supply_chain: shipping/logistics friction adds latent tightness"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro/FX headwinds (USD strength narrative + demand-softness proxies) may cap upside and increase pullback risk after the spike.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand: economic downturn/demand-softness proxy signals appearing in the same window",
"fx: USD narrative (typical negative pressure on USD-priced commodities)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_driven_volatility",
"severity": "high",
"market": "crude_oil",
"detail": "Signal set is dominated by fast, geopolitics/shipping-driven narratives; prone to whipsaw on incremental de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"flag": "macro_fx_headwind_contradiction",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "crude_oil",
"detail": "USD/macro-demand narratives are present inside the same <24h window, increasing contradiction and pullback risk."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_outlier_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"market": "crude_oil",
"detail": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source and should not be allowed to dominate direction without corroboration."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) chokepoint/security disruption signals persist AND contradiction ratio does not rise above ~0.50."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If fast-up narrative continues (rapid updates) OR any new high-authority opposing headline appears within <=2h."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score continues to fall for 2-3 consecutive hourly buckets OR macro/FX bearish signals intensify."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If evidence flow dries up (fresh_evidence_count collapses) while contradiction remains elevated (>=0.50)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 14,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 17,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 11,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 13,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 11,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No prior market_state_table/trend_state_memory provided; state_change computed assuming implicit neutral prior (first-run behaviour).",
"Most supporting evidence is very recent (<24h), so no stale suppression applied; however contradiction elevated by macro/FX headwinds."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}