Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: headline_driven_volatility (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-13T14:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B1 Near-term Middle East / maritime-chokepoint risk is elevating the oil risk premium, biasing Brent upward. 62 up accelerating 6h false 58
crude_oil B2 Refinery outages / capacity interruption narratives are supportive for crude and products, keeping Brent supported into the next day. 58 up stable 24h false 58
crude_oil B3 Macro/FX headwinds (USD strength narrative + demand-softness proxies) may cap upside and increase pullback risk after the spike. 46 mixed accelerating 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-6B-20260313T140000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term Middle East / maritime-chokepoint risk is elevating the oil risk premium, biasing Brent upward.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight: maritime chokepoints / route security headlines (Iran/Iraq-linked lanes)",
 "geopolitics: escalation-risk clustering (Iran/US/Israel mentions across multiple high-authority sources)",
 "supply_disruption: disruption narratives around transit/security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Refinery outages / capacity interruption narratives are supportive for crude and products, keeping Brent supported into the next day.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "inventory/product_tightness: refinery outage/capacity interruption theme",
 "supply_chain: shipping/logistics friction adds latent tightness"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro/FX headwinds (USD strength narrative + demand-softness proxies) may cap upside and increase pullback risk after the spike.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro_demand: economic downturn/demand-softness proxy signals appearing in the same window",
 "fx: USD narrative (typical negative pressure on USD-priced commodities)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "headline_driven_volatility",
 "severity": "high",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "detail": "Signal set is dominated by fast, geopolitics/shipping-driven narratives; prone to whipsaw on incremental de-escalation headlines."
 },
 {
 "flag": "macro_fx_headwind_contradiction",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "detail": "USD/macro-demand narratives are present inside the same <24h window, increasing contradiction and pullback risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_outlier_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "detail": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source and should not be allowed to dominate direction without corroboration."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) chokepoint/security disruption signals persist AND contradiction ratio does not rise above ~0.50."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If fast-up narrative continues (rapid updates) OR any new high-authority opposing headline appears within <=2h."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional score continues to fall for 2-3 consecutive hourly buckets OR macro/FX bearish signals intensify."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If evidence flow dries up (fresh_evidence_count collapses) while contradiction remains elevated (>=0.50)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 14,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 17,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 11,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 13,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 12,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 11,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "No prior market_state_table/trend_state_memory provided; state_change computed assuming implicit neutral prior (first-run behaviour).",
 "Most supporting evidence is very recent (<24h), so no stale suppression applied; however contradiction elevated by macro/FX headwinds."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}