Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-001 (volatility_watch, high) , Geopolitical + shipping-chokepoint disruption cluster is high-heat and fast-moving
  • generated_at: 2026-03-13 05:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude-001 In the next 6h, Brent-linked crude pricing will remain under upward pressure because perceived near-term supply risk is dominated by Middle East shipping/chokepoint disruption narratives. 69 up accelerating 6h false 68
crude_oil B-crude-002 Over the next 24h, the dominant crude narrative stays supply-tight, but price direction becomes more fragile as mitigation measures and de-escalation headlines compete with disruption headlines. 61 up stable 24h false 68
crude_oil B-crude-003 Reversal risk is elevated: a credible de-escalation / reopening signal within the next 6–24h could quickly compress the risk premium currently implied by the disruption-heavy signal mix. 57 mixed accelerating 24h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260313T050000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "In the next 6h, Brent-linked crude pricing will remain under upward pressure because perceived near-term supply risk is dominated by Middle East shipping/chokepoint disruption narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 69,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Strait/chokepoint disruption narratives clustered in the last ~3\u20136h of evidence",
 "IEA-linked disruption framing appearing as a high-heat, rapid/late-surge trend",
 "Multi-source reinforcement across geopolitics + shipping_freight arenas"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Policy intervention / emergency reserves release narratives (mitigation overhang)",
 "Partial transit / routing workaround narratives (de-escalation risk)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, the dominant crude narrative stays supply-tight, but price direction becomes more fragile as mitigation measures and de-escalation headlines compete with disruption headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 61,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Sustained supply-disruption theme (multiple trends with sustained/late-surge temporal profiles)",
 "Ongoing shipping/freight risk premium embedded in recent signal cluster"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Strategic/demand-side stabilisation messaging",
 "Macro-demand sensitivity to high energy prices"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Reversal risk is elevated: a credible de-escalation / reopening signal within the next 6\u201324h could quickly compress the risk premium currently implied by the disruption-heavy signal mix.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "High narrative intensity (rapid/late-surge heat) increases headline-whipsaw probability",
 "Mitigation-policy presence (reserve release / energy security themes) creates two-sided risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Escalation confirmation (additional disruption/attack reporting) would reduce reversal odds"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude-001",
 "B-crude-002",
 "B-crude-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "type": "volatility_watch",
 "severity": "high",
 "summary": "Geopolitical + shipping-chokepoint disruption cluster is high-heat and fast-moving, raising gap-risk and intraday whipsaw likelihood."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "type": "policy_intervention_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "summary": "Mitigation narratives (e.g., emergency reserves / energy-security actions) create two-sided risk and increase reversal probability over 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "type": "authority_mix_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "summary": "Evidence mix contains a meaningful low-authority share in several bundles, increasing rumor/echo susceptibility even as Tier-A sources are present."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-004",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "summary": "Multiple rapid/late-surge trend temporal profiles imply headline-driven regime that can reverse on a single high-trust update."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh disruption confirmations continue to dominate and mitigation headlines do not materially increase contradiction, maintain a bullish watch stance over 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional shipping/security incident updates arrive within <=2h windows, expect higher fragility and larger intraday swings."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If credible de-escalation / transit normalization signals appear (high-authority, replicated), reassess for risk-premium compression within 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if contradiction materially rises and directional score returns to near-neutral (|score| < 20) across multiple recent buckets."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 20,
 "acceleration_score": 20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 75,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 75,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 74,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 89,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 87,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": true,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T00:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 69,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 69,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T00:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 71,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 71,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 73,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 87,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 73,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 74,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 89,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 75,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 75,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 74,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 89,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 74,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 89,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 73,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 88,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 73,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 71,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 86,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 71,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 75,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "No explicit contradictions provided in input (contradictions[] empty; contradiction_record_ids empty on trends); reversal risk set from two-sided policy/mitigation overhang rather than measured contradiction flips.",
 "state_change computed vs unknown prior; treated as neutral baseline -> new_bullish."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}