Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-001 (volatility_watch, high) , Geopolitical + shipping-chokepoint disruption cluster is high-heat and fast-moving
- generated_at: 2026-03-13 05:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-crude-001 | In the next 6h, Brent-linked crude pricing will remain under upward pressure because perceived near-term supply risk is dominated by Middle East shipping/chokepoint disruption narratives. | 69 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 68 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-002 | Over the next 24h, the dominant crude narrative stays supply-tight, but price direction becomes more fragile as mitigation measures and de-escalation headlines compete with disruption headlines. | 61 | up | stable | 24h | false | 68 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-003 | Reversal risk is elevated: a credible de-escalation / reopening signal within the next 6–24h could quickly compress the risk premium currently implied by the disruption-heavy signal mix. | 57 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260313T050000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "In the next 6h, Brent-linked crude pricing will remain under upward pressure because perceived near-term supply risk is dominated by Middle East shipping/chokepoint disruption narratives.",
"probability_pct": 69,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Strait/chokepoint disruption narratives clustered in the last ~3\u20136h of evidence",
"IEA-linked disruption framing appearing as a high-heat, rapid/late-surge trend",
"Multi-source reinforcement across geopolitics + shipping_freight arenas"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Policy intervention / emergency reserves release narratives (mitigation overhang)",
"Partial transit / routing workaround narratives (de-escalation risk)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, the dominant crude narrative stays supply-tight, but price direction becomes more fragile as mitigation measures and de-escalation headlines compete with disruption headlines.",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Sustained supply-disruption theme (multiple trends with sustained/late-surge temporal profiles)",
"Ongoing shipping/freight risk premium embedded in recent signal cluster"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Strategic/demand-side stabilisation messaging",
"Macro-demand sensitivity to high energy prices"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Reversal risk is elevated: a credible de-escalation / reopening signal within the next 6\u201324h could quickly compress the risk premium currently implied by the disruption-heavy signal mix.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"High narrative intensity (rapid/late-surge heat) increases headline-whipsaw probability",
"Mitigation-policy presence (reserve release / energy security themes) creates two-sided risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Escalation confirmation (additional disruption/attack reporting) would reduce reversal odds"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude-001",
"B-crude-002",
"B-crude-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "volatility_watch",
"severity": "high",
"summary": "Geopolitical + shipping-chokepoint disruption cluster is high-heat and fast-moving, raising gap-risk and intraday whipsaw likelihood."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "policy_intervention_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"summary": "Mitigation narratives (e.g., emergency reserves / energy-security actions) create two-sided risk and increase reversal probability over 6\u201324h."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "authority_mix_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"summary": "Evidence mix contains a meaningful low-authority share in several bundles, increasing rumor/echo susceptibility even as Tier-A sources are present."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-004",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"summary": "Multiple rapid/late-surge trend temporal profiles imply headline-driven regime that can reverse on a single high-trust update."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh disruption confirmations continue to dominate and mitigation headlines do not materially increase contradiction, maintain a bullish watch stance over 6h."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If additional shipping/security incident updates arrive within <=2h windows, expect higher fragility and larger intraday swings."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If credible de-escalation / transit normalization signals appear (high-authority, replicated), reassess for risk-premium compression within 6\u201324h."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if contradiction materially rises and directional score returns to near-neutral (|score| < 20) across multiple recent buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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"resolution": "30m",
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"buckets": [
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{
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 73,
"bullish_pressure_score": 87,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 73,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 74,
"bullish_pressure_score": 89,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 75,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 75,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 74,
"bullish_pressure_score": 89,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 74,
"bullish_pressure_score": 89,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 73,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 73,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 71,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 71,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 75,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No explicit contradictions provided in input (contradictions[] empty; contradiction_record_ids empty on trends); reversal risk set from two-sided policy/mitigation overhang rather than measured contradiction flips.",
"state_change computed vs unknown prior; treated as neutral baseline -> new_bullish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}