Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: echo_risk_single_source_tail
  • generated_at: 2026-03-12T16:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Uranium futures biased higher on a 6h horizon as fresh policy/supportive nuclear narrative + supply-risk headlines reinforce tightening expectations. 66 up accelerating 6h false 58
uranium B-UR-002 Uranium retains a bullish bias on a 24h horizon; conviction capped by mixed-quality/echo-risk evidence and intermittent negative geopolitical narratives causing headline whipsaws. 62 up stable 24h false 58
uranium B-UR-003 Short-term reversal/air-pocket risk if recent bullish narrative flow stalls and the signal stream becomes dominated by single-source/low-authority items (headline-driven whipsaw). 38 mixed stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_20260312T163000Z_v1",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T16:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium futures are biased higher on a 6h horizon as fresh policy/supportive nuclear narrative + supply-risk headlines reinforce tightening expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "reactor_demand",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "supply_contracting"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium futures retain a bullish bias on a 24h horizon, but conviction is capped by mixed-quality/echo-risk evidence and intermittent negative-toned geopolitical narratives that can create headline whipsaws.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "inventory",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Short-term reversal/air-pocket risk exists if recent bullish narrative flow stalls and the signal stream becomes dominated by single-source/low-authority items (headline-driven whipsaw).",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_quality",
 "narrative_whipsaw",
 "echo_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "echo_risk_single_source_tail",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source; treated as low-weight but increase fragility."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_mix_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Several trend bundles report high low-authority share; conviction capped despite freshness."
 },
 {
 "flag": "headline_whipsaw_geopolitical_supply_chain",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Geopolitical/supply-chain narratives can swing interpretation quickly even if long-run impact is bullish."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_intraday_bucket_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "notes": "Hourly timeseries shows clustered updates; sparse buckets degrade per-bucket confidence."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh supportive policy/supply-risk signals persist over the next 6h without a contradiction spike."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) high-authority opposing signal appears and contradiction ratio rises materially versus current cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If signal flow shifts to single-source items and narrative tone flips negative across multiple domains."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If bullish directional score falls into neutral band (between -20 and +20) while fragility remains elevated."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:30:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 3,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 4,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:30:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
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 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:30:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:30:00Z",
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": true,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
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 "directional_score_signed": 44,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 46,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:30:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to uranium (single-market).",
 "Directional synthesis emphasised fresh updates (<=6h) while capping conviction due to low-authority mix and single-source VIP tail.",
 "No explicit contradictions provided; reversal risk set to medium due to mixed narrative tone/whipsaw potential rather than direct opposing high-authority evidence.",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change emitted as new_bullish under unknown_prior fallback."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}