Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_driver_dominance (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-12T16:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-silver-01 |
Near-term silver futures skew remains upward-biased as precious-metals flow narratives (safe-haven/ETF framing) stay active into the next 6 hours. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
52 |
| silver |
B-silver-02 |
Over the next 24 hours, silver futures are more likely than not to hold a mild bullish bias, but with fragility due to macro-driver dominance. |
55 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
52 |
| silver |
B-silver-03 |
Silver upside is supported by flow narratives, but price response is fragile because much of the evidence is narrative/coverage-driven with limited explicit opposing-signal telemetry in the input batch. |
62 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260312T160000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-01",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Near-term silver futures skew remains upward-biased as precious-metals flow narratives (safe-haven/ETF framing) stay active into the next 6 hours.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"macro_risk_headlines (gold/safe-haven spillover)",
"ETF/flow framing for precious metals"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"usd_strength_rebound",
"real_rates_rebound",
"risk_on_rotation"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-02",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, silver futures are more likely than not to hold a mild bullish bias, but with fragility due to macro-driver dominance.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates / Fed-policy expectation narrative",
"precious-metals positioning/venue focus (COMEX attention proxy)",
"sector/miner news maintaining mindshare (silver miners/exploration)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"hawkish_surprise",
"USD_spike",
"macro_headline_reversal"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-03",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver upside is supported by flow narratives, but price response is fragile because much of the evidence is narrative/coverage-driven with limited explicit opposing-signal telemetry in the input batch.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"coverage concentration in macro headlines",
"limited contradiction objects present in feed"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"emergence_of_fresh_bearish_macro_signals",
"rapid_drop_in_flow_mentions"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-silver-01",
"B-silver-02",
"B-silver-03"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_driver_dominance",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Recent directional lift is largely attributable to macro/precious-metals flow narratives rather than clearly isolated silver-specific supply/demand shocks.",
"observed_at_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z"
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Momentum appears to have improved late in the window; such late surges can reverse quickly when driven by headline cadence.",
"observed_at_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z"
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "Several supporting themes show multi-day spans; while refreshed today, they can behave as persistent background rather than clean new catalysts.",
"observed_at_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z"
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_on_opposition",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "No explicit contradiction objects were provided in the batch; reversal risk is therefore assessed conservatively from macro uncertainty rather than observed opposing acceleration.",
"observed_at_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z"
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch if net directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.25 over the next 2-6 hours."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if directional_score_signed changes by >= 15 points within a 2-hour window (headline-driven regime)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if a fresh (<=2h) bearish macro/FX signal appears and contradiction_ratio rises above 0.35."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Consider staying flat (label-only) if directional_score_signed falls back into (-20, +20) and conviction drops below 45."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate de-risk watch if thesis_kill_switch becomes true or if fragility rises above 75 on fresh opposing evidence."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to 'silver'; single-market constraint enforced.",
"Signals primarily admitted from: silver miners/exploration coverage + COMEX/venue attention proxy + macro/precious-metals flow narratives.",
"Solar-manufacturing related trends excluded as unmapped/non-causal for silver in this run.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk set to medium based on macro fragility rather than observed opposing acceleration.",
"Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory provided); state_change treated as new_bullish against an implicit neutral baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}