Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NG-RECENCY-001 (recency_flip_risk, medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-12 23:05 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term LNG/geopolitical supply-risk premium is skewing natural gas futures sentiment to the upside. 62 up accelerating 6h false 66
natural_gas B-NG-002 Upside bias is fragile and could fade within 24h if the current risk-driven impulse fails to receive fresh, high-authority confirmation. 58 mixed stable 24h false 66

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_natural_gas_20260312T230500Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T23:05:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Near-term LNG/geopolitical supply-risk premium is skewing natural gas futures sentiment to the upside.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Qatar/LNG supply disruption risk clustering (Ras Laffan/QatarEnergy-linked narratives)", "Geopolitical escalation/uncertainty (Iran/Russia-related narratives)", "Maritime security / shipping-flow risk themes increasing perceived tail risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Any rapid de-escalation headline flow (risk premium unwind)", "Demand-softening / fuel-switching narratives (weakly evidenced in this packet)" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Upside bias is fragile and could fade within 24h if the current risk-driven impulse fails to receive fresh, high-authority confirmation.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Event-driven (headline-sensitive) catalyst mix", "Meaningful portion of supportive context is >72h old and therefore vulnerable to staleness decay" ], "contradicted_by": [ "New, specific, operational confirmation of sustained disruption (would reduce fragility)" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-RECENCY-001", "market": "natural_gas", "flag": "recency_flip_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Directional bias is being driven by news-cycle geopolitics/supply-risk themes; these can reverse quickly as headlines update." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-STALE-001", "market": "natural_gas", "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Some supporting narratives in the packet are older (>72h) and should be treated as background only unless re-confirmed." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-DATA-001", "market": "natural_gas", "flag": "demand_side_blindspot", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Packet is heavy on geopolitical/supply-chain risk; comparatively fewer high-confidence, fresh demand/storage signals are present in the provided inputs." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=6h) additional high-authority confirmation of sustained LNG disruption / escalation without offsetting demand-softening evidence." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Rapid headline cadence continues (multiple geopolitics/shipping updates) and contradiction ratio rises vs prior buckets." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "A credible de-escalation / resolution signal arrives and is followed by a multi-bucket drop in directional score (>=15 points over 2\u20133 hours)." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Directional score returns to the neutral band (between -20 and +20) with low fresh-evidence counts for 3+ consecutive buckets." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.39, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.39, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.4, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.4, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.41, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.41, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.4, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.39, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.38, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.37, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 79, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 81, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 3, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No workflow5B.aggregate_metrics payload provided in input; used trend-level heuristics (recency/velocity_hint/temporal_profile) for synthesis.", "Interpretation note: many admitted items are 'risk-negative' narratives that typically map to upside price pressure (risk premium) rather than 'negative price direction'.", "Prior state not supplied; state_change computed assuming an implicit neutral prior." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }