Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-12T06:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term LNG supply-disruption headlines (Qatar/Ras Laffan shipping risk + broader Middle East escalation) are creating net upward pressure on natural gas futures over the next 6 hours. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
62 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Over the next 24 hours, the dominant risk regime remains volatility-driven: prices are more likely to stay elevated than mean-revert quickly, but with meaningful reversal risk tied to headline resolution. |
58 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260312T060500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T06:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term LNG supply-disruption headlines (Qatar/Ras Laffan shipping risk + broader Middle East escalation) are creating net upward pressure on natural gas futures over the next 6 hours.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"pipeline_flows",
"production_outages"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Rapid de-escalation / restart signals (force majeure withdrawn, production restored, shipping lanes stabilise)",
"Demand destruction headlines (power switching / industrial curtailments) strengthening"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the dominant risk regime remains volatility-driven: prices are more likely to stay elevated than mean-revert quickly, but with meaningful reversal risk tied to headline resolution.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"storage",
"weather_demand",
"geopolitical_risk_premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Clear confirmation of restored LNG output / normalised shipping and no further disruption spillovers",
"Strong bearish storage/demand prints dominating the newsflow"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Geopolitical/LNG disruption narratives can flip quickly on confirmation of outages, reroutes, or restarts."
},
{
"risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Several supporting themes include >72h context; they were downweighted versus the last-24h surge."
},
{
"risk_flag": "data_quality_mixture",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Evidence mix includes a meaningful share of lower-tier / singleton items (VIP lane); conviction is capped accordingly."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional high-authority confirmation of sustained LNG outage/shipping disruption within the next 6\u201312 hours without offsetting demand-destruction signals."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any official restart/withdrawal of force majeure OR confirmed escalation impacting LNG shipping lanes."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=2h) high-authority opposing headlines indicating outage resolution, rapid de-escalation, or unexpectedly bearish storage/demand outcomes."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 92,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 4,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit per-trend physics v2 fields provided; momentum/recency effects approximated from timestamps, temporal_profile and evidence recency proxies.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio held low-to-moderate to reflect mixed-source environment rather than confirmed counter-theses.",
"Prior market state not supplied; state_change emitted as new_bullish under unknown_prior fallback."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}