Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-12T06:05:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term LNG supply-disruption headlines (Qatar/Ras Laffan shipping risk + broader Middle East escalation) are creating net upward pressure on natural gas futures over the next 6 hours. 63 up accelerating 6h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-002 Over the next 24 hours, the dominant risk regime remains volatility-driven: prices are more likely to stay elevated than mean-revert quickly, but with meaningful reversal risk tied to headline resolution. 58 mixed stable 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260312T060500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T06:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term LNG supply-disruption headlines (Qatar/Ras Laffan shipping risk + broader Middle East escalation) are creating net upward pressure on natural gas futures over the next 6 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_lng",
 "pipeline_flows",
 "production_outages"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Rapid de-escalation / restart signals (force majeure withdrawn, production restored, shipping lanes stabilise)",
 "Demand destruction headlines (power switching / industrial curtailments) strengthening"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the dominant risk regime remains volatility-driven: prices are more likely to stay elevated than mean-revert quickly, but with meaningful reversal risk tied to headline resolution.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_lng",
 "storage",
 "weather_demand",
 "geopolitical_risk_premium"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Clear confirmation of restored LNG output / normalised shipping and no further disruption spillovers",
 "Strong bearish storage/demand prints dominating the newsflow"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Geopolitical/LNG disruption narratives can flip quickly on confirmation of outages, reroutes, or restarts."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Several supporting themes include >72h context; they were downweighted versus the last-24h surge."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "data_quality_mixture",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Evidence mix includes a meaningful share of lower-tier / singleton items (VIP lane); conviction is capped accordingly."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional high-authority confirmation of sustained LNG outage/shipping disruption within the next 6\u201312 hours without offsetting demand-destruction signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any official restart/withdrawal of force majeure OR confirmed escalation impacting LNG shipping lanes."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=2h) high-authority opposing headlines indicating outage resolution, rapid de-escalation, or unexpectedly bearish storage/demand outcomes."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 88,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 92,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 4,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit per-trend physics v2 fields provided; momentum/recency effects approximated from timestamps, temporal_profile and evidence recency proxies.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio held low-to-moderate to reflect mixed-source environment rather than confirmed counter-theses.",
 "Prior market state not supplied; state_change emitted as new_bullish under unknown_prior fallback."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}