Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: low_authority_mix_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-12T16:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-001 |
Near-term copper sentiment is skewed upward on supply-side tightness/disruption narratives and scarcity framing, outweighing macro headwinds. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
69 |
| copper |
B-copper-002 |
Infrastructure/grid modernisation and energy-transition capex themes continue to support copper demand expectations and keep dips bid. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
69 |
| copper |
B-copper-003 |
Trade-policy headlines increase short-horizon whipsaw risk even if the directional bias remains upward. |
55 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
69 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260312T163000Z-copper",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T16:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures (HG)",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper sentiment is skewed upward on supply-side tightness/disruption narratives and scarcity framing, outweighing macro headwinds.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption_risk (BHP/Freeport/Capstone-linked disruption narratives)",
"supply_deficit_scarcity framing (incl. dealer/strategist commentary + LME-linked context)",
"inventory/tightness signalling via market commentary bundles"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"usd_strength (macro headwind not strongly represented in the admitted feed)",
"policy/trade-policy uncertainty introducing volatility"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Infrastructure/grid modernisation and energy-transition capex themes continue to support copper demand expectations and keep dips bid.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"electric grid modernisation theme",
"industrial policy / decarbonisation planning",
"infrastructure development network effects"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"demand-side disappointment risk (not directly observed as a fresh counter-signal in this cycle)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy headlines increase short-horizon whipsaw risk even if the directional bias remains upward.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"US trade-policy narrative stream (political/regulatory uncertainty)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"lack of explicit fresh bearish copper-specific demand shocks in admitted signals"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002",
"B-copper-003"
],
"diagnostic_directional_score_signed": 58,
"reversal_triggered": false,
"reversal_evidence_summary": "No strong fresh opposite-direction (bearish) acceleration detected in admitted signals; risk is dominated by headline volatility rather than a confirmed reversal pattern."
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "low_authority_mix_overhang",
"detail": "A meaningful share of reinforcement comes from lower-tier domains; conviction capped and fragility elevated despite fresh timestamps."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk",
"detail": "Trade-policy narrative stream is fresh and can introduce abrupt sentiment swings without clear fundamental follow-through."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-copper-003",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "low",
"label": "echo_risk_single_source_vips",
"detail": "Some VIP outliers are single-source and should not be treated as standalone high-conviction drivers."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-copper-004",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "low",
"label": "macro_headwind_underrepresented",
"detail": "USD-strength arena is in the flight plan but is not strongly represented in fresh admitted evidence; risk of blind spot."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while directional_score_signed stays >= +40 for 2+ consecutive 1h buckets AND contradiction_ratio remains <= 0.10."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if a fresh (<=2h) policy/trade headline cluster appears alongside a contradiction_ratio jump >= +0.05 vs prior 6h average."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch if directional_score_signed falls below +20 within 3 hours AND fresh_evidence_count includes explicit bearish copper demand signals."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 23,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.095,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.095,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.088,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.088,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.087,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.085,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.085,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.083,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.083,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.082,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.078,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.078,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.076,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.075,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.073,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit 5A per-signal physics fields were provided in-message; recency/velocity were approximated from available timestamps (trend/vip timestamps_found and evidence newest-timestamp proxies).",
"Contradictions array was empty in the provided 5B payload; contradiction_ratio is therefore treated as low-to-moderate and primarily reflects authority-mix/echo-risk rather than explicit opposing signals.",
"No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory was supplied; state_change computed against an unknown prior (treated as neutral baseline)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}