Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: low_authority_mix_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-12T16:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Near-term copper sentiment is skewed upward on supply-side tightness/disruption narratives and scarcity framing, outweighing macro headwinds. 62 up accelerating 24h false 69
copper B-copper-002 Infrastructure/grid modernisation and energy-transition capex themes continue to support copper demand expectations and keep dips bid. 58 up stable 24h false 69
copper B-copper-003 Trade-policy headlines increase short-horizon whipsaw risk even if the directional bias remains upward. 55 mixed accelerating 6h false 69

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260312T163000Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T16:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures (HG)",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper sentiment is skewed upward on supply-side tightness/disruption narratives and scarcity framing, outweighing macro headwinds.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption_risk (BHP/Freeport/Capstone-linked disruption narratives)",
 "supply_deficit_scarcity framing (incl. dealer/strategist commentary + LME-linked context)",
 "inventory/tightness signalling via market commentary bundles"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "usd_strength (macro headwind not strongly represented in the admitted feed)",
 "policy/trade-policy uncertainty introducing volatility"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Infrastructure/grid modernisation and energy-transition capex themes continue to support copper demand expectations and keep dips bid.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "electric grid modernisation theme",
 "industrial policy / decarbonisation planning",
 "infrastructure development network effects"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "demand-side disappointment risk (not directly observed as a fresh counter-signal in this cycle)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy headlines increase short-horizon whipsaw risk even if the directional bias remains upward.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "US trade-policy narrative stream (political/regulatory uncertainty)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "lack of explicit fresh bearish copper-specific demand shocks in admitted signals"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002",
 "B-copper-003"
 ],
 "diagnostic_directional_score_signed": 58,
 "reversal_triggered": false,
 "reversal_evidence_summary": "No strong fresh opposite-direction (bearish) acceleration detected in admitted signals; risk is dominated by headline volatility rather than a confirmed reversal pattern."
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "low_authority_mix_overhang",
 "detail": "A meaningful share of reinforcement comes from lower-tier domains; conviction capped and fragility elevated despite fresh timestamps."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "detail": "Trade-policy narrative stream is fresh and can introduce abrupt sentiment swings without clear fundamental follow-through."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "low",
 "label": "echo_risk_single_source_vips",
 "detail": "Some VIP outliers are single-source and should not be treated as standalone high-conviction drivers."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-copper-004",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "low",
 "label": "macro_headwind_underrepresented",
 "detail": "USD-strength arena is in the flight plan but is not strongly represented in fresh admitted evidence; risk of blind spot."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while directional_score_signed stays >= +40 for 2+ consecutive 1h buckets AND contradiction_ratio remains <= 0.10."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if a fresh (<=2h) policy/trade headline cluster appears alongside a contradiction_ratio jump >= +0.05 vs prior 6h average."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch if directional_score_signed falls below +20 within 3 hours AND fresh_evidence_count includes explicit bearish copper demand signals."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 21,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 23,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.095,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.095,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 29,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.088,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.088,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.087,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.085,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.085,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.083,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.083,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.082,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.078,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.078,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.076,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.075,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.073,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit 5A per-signal physics fields were provided in-message; recency/velocity were approximated from available timestamps (trend/vip timestamps_found and evidence newest-timestamp proxies).",
 "Contradictions array was empty in the provided 5B payload; contradiction_ratio is therefore treated as low-to-moderate and primarily reflects authority-mix/echo-risk rather than explicit opposing signals.",
 "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory was supplied; state_change computed against an unknown prior (treated as neutral baseline)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}