- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: policy_trade_uncertainty
- generated_at: 2026-03-12T02:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B1 |
Over the next 24h, copper futures sentiment is biased upward as industrial policy / electrification / grid-modernisation narratives dominate demand expectations. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
54 |
| copper |
B2 |
Near-term upside skew persists as supply-disruption / supply-deficit framing remains present in the feed, supporting tighter-balance perceptions. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
54 |
| copper |
B3 |
Trade-policy and legal/regulatory headline risk can trigger short-horizon pullbacks or cap rallies, increasing two-way risk over the next 6–24h. |
44 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
54 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "copper-20260312T020000Z-6B",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures (HG)",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, copper futures sentiment is biased upward as industrial policy / electrification / grid-modernisation narratives dominate demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"decarbonisation_capex",
"grid_infrastructure_buildout"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term upside skew persists as supply-disruption / supply-deficit framing remains present in the feed, supporting tighter-balance perceptions.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"operational_disruptions",
"supply_deficit_narratives",
"inventory_attention"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy and legal/regulatory headline risk can trigger short-horizon pullbacks or cap rallies, increasing two-way risk over the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy_uncertainty",
"legal_headline_risk",
"macro_risk_pulse"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "policy_trade_uncertainty",
"severity": "medium",
"markets": [
"copper"
],
"detail": "Trade-policy themed items are recent and can introduce whipsaw risk versus the otherwise demand/supportive narrative stack."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier",
"severity": "medium",
"markets": [
"copper"
],
"detail": "A meaningful share of reinforcement appears to come from lower-tier domains; treat conviction as capped until corroborated by higher-authority repetition."
},
{
"flag": "echo_risk_pockets",
"severity": "low",
"markets": [
"copper"
],
"detail": "Some fast-moving clusters show concentration/echo characteristics; may overstate immediate impact."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while the late-surge demand/buildout themes remain dominant and no strong fresh counter-signal appears."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if additional trade-policy/legal headlines arrive inside a 2\u20136h window (contradiction ratio rising)."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch if a high-authority, very fresh (<=2h) bearish macro/policy item lands and is repeated by a second source."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope locked to single market: copper (explicit).",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided; reversal risk is set to medium due to mixed policy/legal risk items rather than a measured contradiction spike.",
"No prior market state provided; state_change uses neutral-as-unknown fallback => new_bullish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}