Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: policy_uncertainty_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-03-12 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-CU-001 |
Near-term supply-side disruption risk (major miners / operations headlines) is net-supportive for copper futures. |
63 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
61 |
| copper |
B-CU-002 |
Structural demand narratives (grid modernisation, decarbonisation / industrial policy) remain supportive but are mostly background vs the last 24h impulse. |
60 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
61 |
| copper |
B-CU-003 |
Trade-policy / macro-policy uncertainty is a credible short-horizon downside or whipsaw risk for copper (demand and risk-sentiment channel). |
52 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260312T120000Z-copper",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CU-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term supply-side disruption risk (major miners / operations headlines) is net-supportive for copper futures.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CU-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CU-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Structural demand narratives (grid modernisation, decarbonisation / industrial policy) remain supportive but are mostly background vs the last 24h impulse.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CU-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CU-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy / macro-policy uncertainty is a credible short-horizon downside or whipsaw risk for copper (demand and risk-sentiment channel).",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CU-001",
"B-CU-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CU-001",
"B-CU-002",
"B-CU-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-CU-001",
"label": "policy_uncertainty_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Recent policy/trade-policy signal is directionally mixed vs bullish supply/demand narratives; increases short-horizon reversal/volatility risk."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-CU-002",
"label": "authority_mix_skews_low",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Multiple themes show high low-authority share / echo-risk markers in evidence bundles; reduces freshness confidence and raises fragility."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-CU-003",
"label": "timeseries_data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Hourly buckets are event-sparse; confidence decays quickly between evidence timestamps."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) supply-disruption confirmation appears and net directional_score_signed re-accelerates above +25 in the next 2-4 buckets, maintain long-bias watch.",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias"
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional policy/trade headlines arrive and contradiction_ratio rises above 0.30 with falling net_sentiment, treat as near-term reversal watch.",
"action_label": "reversal_watch"
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If mixed policy signals persist (net_sentiment oscillation > 20 points over 3 buckets), treat as volatility watch.",
"action_label": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If no new confirming evidence arrives for >24h and directional_score_signed drifts back inside [-10,+10], prefer flat/neutral monitoring posture.",
"action_label": "stay_flat"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 0,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 0,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 0,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 0,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3.5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 3.5,
"velocity_score": 3.5,
"acceleration_score": 3.5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -0.5,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 3,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2.6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 2.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 2.6,
"velocity_score": -0.4,
"acceleration_score": 0.1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 3,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2.2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 2.2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 2.2,
"velocity_score": -0.4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 2,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 59.8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59.8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 59.8,
"velocity_score": 57.6,
"acceleration_score": 58,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 84,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50.8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50.8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50.8,
"velocity_score": -9,
"acceleration_score": -66.6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43.2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43.2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 43.2,
"velocity_score": -7.6,
"acceleration_score": 1.4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36.7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36.7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36.7,
"velocity_score": -6.5,
"acceleration_score": 1.1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31.2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31.2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 31.2,
"velocity_score": -5.5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26.5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26.5,
"velocity_score": -4.7,
"acceleration_score": 0.8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 27,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22.5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22.5,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0.7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 23,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19.1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19.1,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 19.1,
"velocity_score": -3.4,
"acceleration_score": 0.6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 19,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41.5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 41.5,
"velocity_score": 22.4,
"acceleration_score": 25.8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35.3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35.3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35.3,
"velocity_score": -6.2,
"acceleration_score": -28.6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -5.3,
"acceleration_score": 0.9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25.5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25.5,
"velocity_score": -4.5,
"acceleration_score": 0.8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15.6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21.7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6.1,
"net_sentiment_score": 15.6,
"velocity_score": -9.9,
"acceleration_score": -5.4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13.3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13.3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13.3,
"velocity_score": -2.3,
"acceleration_score": 7.6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 13,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11.3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11.3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11.3,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0.3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 11,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9.6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 9.6,
"velocity_score": -1.7,
"acceleration_score": 0.3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 59.8,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 22,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to 'copper'.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk derived from mixed policy signal vs bullish supply/demand cluster.",
"Prior state not provided; state_change treated as neutral->bullish (new_bullish) for state-machine continuity."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}