• subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: volatility_watch_shipping_weather
  • generated_at: 2026-03-12T19:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-1 Near-term coffee futures pricing pressure skews upward as supply-chain friction and farm-side disruption/cost narratives dominate incremental attention. 62 up accelerating 24h false 68
coffee B-coffee-2 Headline-driven volatility risk is elevated; directional follow-through may be fragile if the logistics/geopolitics thread cools without fresh coffee-specific confirmation. 66 mixed stable 6h false 68
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260312T190000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing pressure skews upward as supply-chain friction and farm-side disruption/cost narratives dominate incremental attention.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "weather/crop disruption risk signals linked to coffee production",
 "rising/unstable agricultural input and production-cost narratives",
 "shipping/logistics disruption narratives affecting commodity flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "thin direct coffee-specific, high-authority confirmations (signal dilution by broad macro/logistics narratives)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Headline-driven volatility risk is elevated; directional follow-through may be fragile if the logistics/geopolitics thread cools without fresh coffee-specific confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitics-to-shipping transmission risk",
 "mixed-quality source blend / cross-commodity narrative overlap"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "sustained, coffee-origin specific supply tightness confirmations arriving across multiple high-authority sources"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-1",
 "B-coffee-2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-data-sparsity",
 "market": "coffee",
 "label": "data_sparsity_and_signal_dilution",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Large share of admitted narratives are broad (logistics/geopolitics/inputs) rather than uniquely coffee-origin specific; conviction capped."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-contradiction-mix",
 "market": "coffee",
 "label": "mixed_driver_stack",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Drivers point to upward price pressure, but come from heterogeneous arenas with varying authority; reversal risk elevated to medium."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-volatility",
 "market": "coffee",
 "label": "volatility_watch_shipping_weather",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Weather disruption + shipping friction stack implies higher short-horizon headline sensitivity."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh coffee-origin supply disruption confirmations within the next 6\u201324h (multi-source) while contradiction ratio stays <= ~0.40."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Any new shipping-route disruption or origin weather escalation headline that clusters within <=2h and increases contradiction/attention intensity."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Emergence of fresh opposing signals (e.g., easing supply/logistics or improved crop outlook) with age <=2h and high-authority sourcing."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -22,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 9,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 21,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 9,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 25,
 "acceleration_score": 23,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 25,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change treated as transition from implicit neutral baseline.",
 "Directional mapping interprets supply/logistics disruption + cost pressure as generally supportive of higher coffee futures pricing, but conviction capped due to heterogeneous/cross-commodity evidence mix."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}