- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: volatility_watch_shipping_weather
- generated_at: 2026-03-12T19:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-1 |
Near-term coffee futures pricing pressure skews upward as supply-chain friction and farm-side disruption/cost narratives dominate incremental attention. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
68 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-2 |
Headline-driven volatility risk is elevated; directional follow-through may be fragile if the logistics/geopolitics thread cools without fresh coffee-specific confirmation. |
66 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
68 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260312T190000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing pressure skews upward as supply-chain friction and farm-side disruption/cost narratives dominate incremental attention.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"weather/crop disruption risk signals linked to coffee production",
"rising/unstable agricultural input and production-cost narratives",
"shipping/logistics disruption narratives affecting commodity flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"thin direct coffee-specific, high-authority confirmations (signal dilution by broad macro/logistics narratives)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Headline-driven volatility risk is elevated; directional follow-through may be fragile if the logistics/geopolitics thread cools without fresh coffee-specific confirmation.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics-to-shipping transmission risk",
"mixed-quality source blend / cross-commodity narrative overlap"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"sustained, coffee-origin specific supply tightness confirmations arriving across multiple high-authority sources"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-1",
"B-coffee-2"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-data-sparsity",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "data_sparsity_and_signal_dilution",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Large share of admitted narratives are broad (logistics/geopolitics/inputs) rather than uniquely coffee-origin specific; conviction capped."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-contradiction-mix",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "mixed_driver_stack",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Drivers point to upward price pressure, but come from heterogeneous arenas with varying authority; reversal risk elevated to medium."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-volatility",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "volatility_watch_shipping_weather",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Weather disruption + shipping friction stack implies higher short-horizon headline sensitivity."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh coffee-origin supply disruption confirmations within the next 6\u201324h (multi-source) while contradiction ratio stays <= ~0.40."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Any new shipping-route disruption or origin weather escalation headline that clusters within <=2h and increases contradiction/attention intensity."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Emergence of fresh opposing signals (e.g., easing supply/logistics or improved crop outlook) with age <=2h and high-authority sourcing."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 19,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 19,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -22,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 10,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 25,
"acceleration_score": 23,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 25,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change treated as transition from implicit neutral baseline.",
"Directional mapping interprets supply/logistics disruption + cost pressure as generally supportive of higher coffee futures pricing, but conviction capped due to heterogeneous/cross-commodity evidence mix."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}