Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: mixed_driver_stack (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-12T03:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-COFFEE-001 Near-term coffee futures price bias is upward as logistics/shipping disruption risk and higher production-cost narratives act as effective supply tighteners. 62 up accelerating 24h false 56
coffee B-COFFEE-002 Over the next 6 hours, the tape is biased modestly higher but remains headline-sensitive; upside can stall without incremental fresh disruption confirmation. 55 up stable 6h false 56
coffee B-COFFEE-003 Upside is capped by counter-narratives implying stabilising supply chain conditions and longer-run climate resilience/mitigation measures, increasing two-way risk. 38 down fading 24h false 56

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260312T030000Z-coffee-KC-0001", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Near-term coffee futures price bias is upward as logistics/shipping disruption risk and higher production-cost narratives act as effective supply tighteners.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight: sustained disruption/constraint narrative (multiple logistics actors)", "origin_supply: West Africa/Brazil supply-risk framing (agricultural risk theme)", "crop_conditions: climate/anomaly risk narratives (low-to-mid corroboration)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-COFFEE-003" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Over the next 6 hours, the tape is biased modestly higher but remains headline-sensitive; upside can stall without incremental fresh disruption confirmation.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight: recent updates clustered within the last few hours", "pricing: production-cost pressure theme persists" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-COFFEE-003" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-003", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Upside is capped by counter-narratives implying stabilising supply chain conditions and longer-run climate resilience/mitigation measures, increasing two-way risk.", "probability_pct": 38, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "origin_supply: resilience/mitigation signalling", "shipping_freight: isolated signals of improving container/shipping conditions (low corroboration)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-COFFEE-001", "B-COFFEE-002" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-COFFEE-001", "B-COFFEE-002" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "mixed_driver_stack", "severity": "medium", "market": "coffee", "detail": "Bullish supply-tightening/disruption signals are partially offset by smaller stabilisation/resilience narratives; expect two-way volatility." }, { "flag": "evidence_authority_mix_skew_low", "severity": "medium", "market": "coffee", "detail": "Several admitted themes report strong coverage but with material low-tier source share; conviction capped despite supportive direction." }, { "flag": "cross_market_inference_risk", "severity": "medium", "market": "coffee", "detail": "Some logistics/geopolitical signals are broad commodity/supply-chain narratives rather than coffee-specific shipment constraints; mapping confidence is imperfect." }, { "flag": "missing_currency_driver_visibility", "severity": "low", "market": "coffee", "detail": "BRL/USD driver arena is in scope but no explicit currency signal was provided in admitted evidence; FX-related reversals may be under-detected." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics-disruption updates persist over the next 6h without credible stabilisation offsets, maintain a long-bias watch." }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction increases (new stabilisation/resilience confirmations) while disruption headlines remain active, treat as volatility watch (two-way)." }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very-recent (<2h) supply-easing or freight-normalisation signal emerges, elevate to reversal watch." }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If both disruption and cost narratives go quiet and no fresh coffee-specific crop/weather risk appears, downgrade to stay-flat watch." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 14, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 7, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['coffee'].", "No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields provided; directional scores derived from sentiment + driver-arena mapping heuristics and recency windows.", "Several inputs are broad logistics/geopolitics themes; mapped to coffee via shipping_freight/origin_supply arenas with medium confidence." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }