• subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: crude_oil
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: headline_driven_volatility
  • generated_at: 2026-03-12 23:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B1 Near-term Brent crude risk premium remains supported by heightened geopolitics and maritime chokepoint/security narratives, biasing prices upward. 62 up accelerating 6h false 57
crude_oil B2 Bearish counter-pressure may emerge from refinery outage/demand-destruction framing and macro-policy uncertainty, limiting upside or causing pullbacks. 41 mixed stable 24h false 57
crude_oil B3 Volatility risk is elevated (headline-driven whipsaw) even if directional bias is bullish. 70 mixed accelerating 24h false 57
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260312T230000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term Brent crude risk premium remains supported by heightened geopolitics and maritime chokepoint/security narratives, biasing prices upward.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitics escalation / conflict headlines",
 "Maritime chokepoint and shipping security concerns",
 "Supply disruption risk framing (IEA-related disruption narrative)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B2"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Bearish counter-pressure may emerge from refinery outage/demand-destruction framing and macro-policy uncertainty, limiting upside or causing pullbacks.",
 "probability_pct": 41,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Refinery outage / operational disruption narratives (potential crude demand hit)",
 "Macro-policy uncertainty (rates / USD / growth sensitivity)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Volatility risk is elevated (headline-driven whipsaw) even if directional bias is bullish.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "High headline velocity (late-surge geopolitical cluster)",
 "Mixed authority mix including multiple single-source VIP/risk items"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B3"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "headline_driven_volatility",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Directional bias is supported by fast-moving geopolitical/shipping narratives; intraday swings likely."
 },
 {
 "flag": "medium_reversal_risk_from_opposing_operational_signals",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Late opposing oil-complex signals (e.g., refinery outage framing) could cap upside or trigger pullbacks if corroborated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "mixed_authority_and_single_source_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Some incremental signals are single-source (VIP/risk lane); treat as fragile until corroborated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Several background trends fall outside the last-24h window; they should not dominate near-term direction without fresh confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If geopolitical + maritime security signal remains dominant over the next 6h with no de-escalation headlines, maintain a long-bias watch posture.",
 "action": "watch_long_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradictory operational/macro items increase (or authority tier improves) while geopolitics remains elevated, expect higher realised volatility and whipsaw risk.",
 "action": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If refinery-outage/demand-hit narratives become multi-sourced OR coincide with de-escalation headlines, treat as potential short-term reversal/pullback setup.",
 "action": "reversal_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If both bullish geopolitics and bearish demand/macro signals fade (data sparsity), default to non-commitment until new evidence arrives.",
 "action": "stay_flat"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 9,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -11,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 19,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 20,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -23,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 17,
 "acceleration_score": 20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No per-record trend_physics provided; used trend/vip/risk timestamps + qualitative mapping to crude_oil to construct directional pressure series.",
 "Several macro/security items are outside the last-24h timeseries window and treated as background (stale_evidence_count).",
 "Late opposing operational signals were low-confidence; kill-switch criteria not met."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}