Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: headline_driven_volatility (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-12 16:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B1 Near-term Brent crude risk premium remains supported by clustered geopolitics/maritime-security headlines and perceived supply-disruption risk. 65 up accelerating 6h false 62
crude_oil B2 Over 24h, Brent crude direction is biased higher but increasingly headline-fragile; upside persists unless there is credible de-escalation/flow-normalisation confirmation. 60 up stable 24h false 62
crude_oil B3 A sharp pullback risk exists if incoming updates shift from 'risk/disruption' to 'contained/normalised' (i.e., risk-premium unwind) given the event-driven nature of the support. 40 down stable 24h false 62
crude_oil B4 Downside-cap/cross-current risk persists from demand-side or refinery-run uncertainty signals (e.g., refinery outage headlines that could imply reduced crude intake in some regions). 35 mixed fading 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260312T160000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term Brent crude risk premium remains supported by clustered geopolitics/maritime-security headlines and perceived supply-disruption risk.",
 "probability_pct": 65,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical conflict / escalation focus (Iran; CENTCOM-related escalation narratives)",
 "Maritime security incident flow (UKMTO/maritime security themes; Gulf shipping risk framing)",
 "Supply disruption / outage themes (refinery outage and disruption headlines across major producers/regions)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over 24h, Brent crude direction is biased higher but increasingly headline-fragile; upside persists unless there is credible de-escalation/flow-normalisation confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Continuation of multi-source coverage of conflict/supply-risk narratives (high reinforcement across trend bundles)",
 "Shipping/logistics disruption themes elevating uncertainty premium"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3",
 "B4"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "A sharp pullback risk exists if incoming updates shift from 'risk/disruption' to 'contained/normalised' (i.e., risk-premium unwind) given the event-driven nature of the support.",
 "probability_pct": 40,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Event-risk premium can unwind quickly on de-escalation or clarification",
 "Mixed driver stack (macro policy/demand narratives present alongside supply-risk headlines)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B4",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Downside-cap/cross-current risk persists from demand-side or refinery-run uncertainty signals (e.g., refinery outage headlines that could imply reduced crude intake in some regions).",
 "probability_pct": 35,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Refinery outage narratives can cut crude runs (demand for feedstock) even as products may tighten",
 "Macro-policy and broader risk-asset framing introduces two-way pressure"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "code": "headline_driven_volatility",
 "severity": "high",
 "description": "State support is primarily event/headline-driven (geopolitics, maritime security, supply disruption), raising gap/whipsaw risk even while direction is bullish."
 },
 {
 "code": "mixed_driver_stack",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Presence of macro-policy/demand narratives alongside supply-risk narratives increases contradiction and reversal probability (medium reversal risk)."
 },
 {
 "code": "low_authority_outliers_present",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Several very fresh singleton/low-diversity signals exist; they raise fragility but are insufficient to flip direction without corroboration."
 },
 {
 "code": "shipping_security_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Maritime-security and logistics disruption themes amplify tail-risk; adverse updates can accelerate both upside (risk premium) and downside (de-escalation unwind)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional Tier-A corroboration of disruptions/outages or credible escalation updates within the next 6\u201324h while contradiction remains contained (no strong demand-shock counters)."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any fast sequence of shipping/security updates (incident/response/clearance) or policy headlines that change perceived flow risk."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Credible de-escalation/containment confirmation or refinery-run/demand deterioration signals rising enough to push directional score below the bullish threshold."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score compresses into neutral band (between -20 and +20) with rising contradiction and no fresh Tier-A directional catalyst."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction metrics are conservative proxies inferred from mixed driver composition and singleton/low-diversity outliers.",
 "Prior state not provided to 6B; state_change treated as new_bullish (unknown_prior assumed neutral baseline)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}