Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: headline_driven_volatility (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-12 16:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B1 |
Near-term Brent crude risk premium remains supported by clustered geopolitics/maritime-security headlines and perceived supply-disruption risk. |
65 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
62 |
| crude_oil |
B2 |
Over 24h, Brent crude direction is biased higher but increasingly headline-fragile; upside persists unless there is credible de-escalation/flow-normalisation confirmation. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
| crude_oil |
B3 |
A sharp pullback risk exists if incoming updates shift from 'risk/disruption' to 'contained/normalised' (i.e., risk-premium unwind) given the event-driven nature of the support. |
40 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
| crude_oil |
B4 |
Downside-cap/cross-current risk persists from demand-side or refinery-run uncertainty signals (e.g., refinery outage headlines that could imply reduced crude intake in some regions). |
35 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260312T160000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term Brent crude risk premium remains supported by clustered geopolitics/maritime-security headlines and perceived supply-disruption risk.",
"probability_pct": 65,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical conflict / escalation focus (Iran; CENTCOM-related escalation narratives)",
"Maritime security incident flow (UKMTO/maritime security themes; Gulf shipping risk framing)",
"Supply disruption / outage themes (refinery outage and disruption headlines across major producers/regions)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over 24h, Brent crude direction is biased higher but increasingly headline-fragile; upside persists unless there is credible de-escalation/flow-normalisation confirmation.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Continuation of multi-source coverage of conflict/supply-risk narratives (high reinforcement across trend bundles)",
"Shipping/logistics disruption themes elevating uncertainty premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3",
"B4"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "A sharp pullback risk exists if incoming updates shift from 'risk/disruption' to 'contained/normalised' (i.e., risk-premium unwind) given the event-driven nature of the support.",
"probability_pct": 40,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Event-risk premium can unwind quickly on de-escalation or clarification",
"Mixed driver stack (macro policy/demand narratives present alongside supply-risk headlines)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B4",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Downside-cap/cross-current risk persists from demand-side or refinery-run uncertainty signals (e.g., refinery outage headlines that could imply reduced crude intake in some regions).",
"probability_pct": 35,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Refinery outage narratives can cut crude runs (demand for feedstock) even as products may tighten",
"Macro-policy and broader risk-asset framing introduces two-way pressure"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"code": "headline_driven_volatility",
"severity": "high",
"description": "State support is primarily event/headline-driven (geopolitics, maritime security, supply disruption), raising gap/whipsaw risk even while direction is bullish."
},
{
"code": "mixed_driver_stack",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Presence of macro-policy/demand narratives alongside supply-risk narratives increases contradiction and reversal probability (medium reversal risk)."
},
{
"code": "low_authority_outliers_present",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Several very fresh singleton/low-diversity signals exist; they raise fragility but are insufficient to flip direction without corroboration."
},
{
"code": "shipping_security_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Maritime-security and logistics disruption themes amplify tail-risk; adverse updates can accelerate both upside (risk premium) and downside (de-escalation unwind)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional Tier-A corroboration of disruptions/outages or credible escalation updates within the next 6\u201324h while contradiction remains contained (no strong demand-shock counters)."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any fast sequence of shipping/security updates (incident/response/clearance) or policy headlines that change perceived flow risk."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Credible de-escalation/containment confirmation or refinery-run/demand deterioration signals rising enough to push directional score below the bullish threshold."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score compresses into neutral band (between -20 and +20) with rising contradiction and no fresh Tier-A directional catalyst."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction metrics are conservative proxies inferred from mixed driver composition and singleton/low-diversity outliers.",
"Prior state not provided to 6B; state_change treated as new_bullish (unknown_prior assumed neutral baseline)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}