Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_watch
- generated_at: 2026-03-12 10:40 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-001 |
Near-term geopolitical + maritime-security risk is adding a risk premium to Brent (upward price pressure) over the next 6h. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
62 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-002 |
Macro/policy cross-currents (USD / US macro policy headlines) raise the odds of pullbacks and intraday reversals even if the base bias is higher. |
48 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-003 |
Inventory/infrastructure headlines (DOE inventories / refinery-outage chatter) are directionally ambiguous and can quickly flip the tape (risk of downside if inventory build narratives dominate). |
38 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260312T104000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T10:40:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term geopolitical + maritime-security risk is adding a risk premium to Brent (upward price pressure) over the next 6h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"IEA/geopolitical conflict signal cluster (high recency, broad coverage)",
"US Central Command / escalation risk cluster (very recent resurfacing)",
"Maritime chokepoints / shipping security disruption signals (persistent in last 24h)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-002",
"B-CO-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro/policy cross-currents (USD / US macro policy headlines) raise the odds of pullbacks and intraday reversals even if the base bias is higher.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"US Dollar Index macro-policy trend cluster",
"US Bureau of Labor Statistics macro-policy trend cluster"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Inventory/infrastructure headlines (DOE inventories / refinery-outage chatter) are directionally ambiguous and can quickly flip the tape (risk of downside if inventory build narratives dominate).",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"DOE physical inventories trend (direction not explicit in feed)",
"Refinery outage / operational surge risk anomalies with low corroboration"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002",
"B-CO-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_watch",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Macro/policy signals coexist with supply-risk signals; reversal risk elevated versus a single-driver tape."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Geopolitics/shipping narratives can de-escalate quickly; price response can reverse on single headline."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_tail",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "VIP/risk anomaly lane includes several single-source, low-authority items; capped impact but can cause short-lived volatility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh escalation / disruption headlines persist into the next 1\u20133 hours with no credible de-escalation counter-signal."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "A high-authority de-escalation headline or a clearly bearish inventory surprise appears within a 2h window."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Continued dense headline flow around chokepoints / escalation combined with mixed macro narratives."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if headline flow collapses and directional scores compress back inside +/-20 for several hours."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No explicit contradictions array provided; contradiction ratios held low/moderate and reversal risk set to medium due to mixed driver arenas (geopolitics vs macro).",
"Several VIP/risk-anomaly items are single-source (echo-risk flagged) and were down-weighted in conviction/fragility."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}