Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_mixed_macro_vs_geopolitics
  • generated_at: 2026-03-12T06:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CO-001 Geopolitical escalation signals (Iran/US, regional military/security headlines) are increasing the short-term supply-risk premium, skewing Brent higher. 62 up accelerating 6h false 63
crude_oil B-CO-002 Shipping / maritime risk narratives (chokepoints, UKMTO-adjacent risk chatter) support upside skew and elevated intraday volatility for Brent. 57 up stable 24h false 63
crude_oil B-CO-003 Macro headwinds (USD-strength framing and recession-risk commentary) can cap upside and raise the chance of a pullback if geopolitical intensity cools. 44 down fading 24h false 63
crude_oil B-CO-004 Headline-driven whipsaw risk is elevated; price can flip quickly on de-escalation or confirmation headlines even if the baseline bias remains upward. 58 mixed accelerating 6h false 63

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260312T061000Z-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T06:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical escalation signals (Iran/US, regional military/security headlines) are increasing the short-term supply-risk premium, skewing Brent higher.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitics escalation cluster (Iran/US)",
 "Regional conflict / security incident flow",
 "Risk-premium repricing dynamics"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Shipping / maritime risk narratives (chokepoints, UKMTO-adjacent risk chatter) support upside skew and elevated intraday volatility for Brent.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Maritime security / chokepoint risk signals",
 "Freight / shipping disruption sensitivity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro headwinds (USD-strength framing and recession-risk commentary) can cap upside and raise the chance of a pullback if geopolitical intensity cools.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "USD / macro-policy narrative",
 "Recession-risk signalling",
 "Risk-on/off cross-asset sensitivity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-001",
 "B-CO-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-004",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Headline-driven whipsaw risk is elevated; price can flip quickly on de-escalation or confirmation headlines even if the baseline bias remains upward.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "High-velocity late-surge newsflow",
 "Event-risk dominance vs fundamentals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CO-001",
 "B-CO-002",
 "B-CO-004"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_mixed_macro_vs_geopolitics",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Fresh geopolitics/shipping-risk premium supports upside, while USD/macro-demand narratives add counter-pressure."
 },
 {
 "flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Late-surge newsflow implies fast reversals on de-escalation/confirmation headlines."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_tail_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Some VIP/risk anomaly items are single-source / lower-tier; kept as secondary context only."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Geopolitical escalation signals remain dominant in the most-recent 6h window without a fresh high-authority de-escalation counter-signal."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any additional shipping/maritime incident or military escalation headline within the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh de-escalation headlines OR a sharp macro-risk tilt (USD-strength impulse / demand-risk escalation) coinciding with rising contradiction."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises materially while fresh directional evidence thins (headline impulse fades)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -31,
 "acceleration_score": -34,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 57,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 57,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 59,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 59,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 59,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used conservative proxying from recency/heat/velocity hints and mixed macro-vs-geopolitics sign structure.",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change set as new_bullish under unknown_prior fallback."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}