Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_mixed_macro_vs_geopolitics
- generated_at: 2026-03-12T06:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-001 |
Geopolitical escalation signals (Iran/US, regional military/security headlines) are increasing the short-term supply-risk premium, skewing Brent higher. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
63 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-002 |
Shipping / maritime risk narratives (chokepoints, UKMTO-adjacent risk chatter) support upside skew and elevated intraday volatility for Brent. |
57 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
63 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-003 |
Macro headwinds (USD-strength framing and recession-risk commentary) can cap upside and raise the chance of a pullback if geopolitical intensity cools. |
44 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
63 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-004 |
Headline-driven whipsaw risk is elevated; price can flip quickly on de-escalation or confirmation headlines even if the baseline bias remains upward. |
58 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
63 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260312T061000Z-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T06:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation signals (Iran/US, regional military/security headlines) are increasing the short-term supply-risk premium, skewing Brent higher.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitics escalation cluster (Iran/US)",
"Regional conflict / security incident flow",
"Risk-premium repricing dynamics"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Shipping / maritime risk narratives (chokepoints, UKMTO-adjacent risk chatter) support upside skew and elevated intraday volatility for Brent.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Maritime security / chokepoint risk signals",
"Freight / shipping disruption sensitivity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro headwinds (USD-strength framing and recession-risk commentary) can cap upside and raise the chance of a pullback if geopolitical intensity cools.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"USD / macro-policy narrative",
"Recession-risk signalling",
"Risk-on/off cross-asset sensitivity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-004",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Headline-driven whipsaw risk is elevated; price can flip quickly on de-escalation or confirmation headlines even if the baseline bias remains upward.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"High-velocity late-surge newsflow",
"Event-risk dominance vs fundamentals"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002",
"B-CO-004"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_mixed_macro_vs_geopolitics",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Fresh geopolitics/shipping-risk premium supports upside, while USD/macro-demand narratives add counter-pressure."
},
{
"flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Late-surge newsflow implies fast reversals on de-escalation/confirmation headlines."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_tail_risk",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Some VIP/risk anomaly items are single-source / lower-tier; kept as secondary context only."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Geopolitical escalation signals remain dominant in the most-recent 6h window without a fresh high-authority de-escalation counter-signal."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any additional shipping/maritime incident or military escalation headline within the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh de-escalation headlines OR a sharp macro-risk tilt (USD-strength impulse / demand-risk escalation) coinciding with rising contradiction."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises materially while fresh directional evidence thins (headline impulse fades)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -31,
"acceleration_score": -34,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 57,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 59,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 59,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 59,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used conservative proxying from recency/heat/velocity hints and mixed macro-vs-geopolitics sign structure.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change set as new_bullish under unknown_prior fallback."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}