Commodities Report: Wheat futures | 2026-03-11 12:00 UTC [VJDF] | Bullish | tightening

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1. https://www.farms.com/news/fao-sees-lower-new-crop-world-wheat-production-239298.aspx - * Global wheat production forecasted to reach about 810 million tonnes in 2026, down nearly 3% from last year’s record-high levels. * The decline is attributed to reduced planted area and a shift to alternative crops due to softer prices. * European Union’s wheat output is expected to decline slightly despite above-average yields. * Russia’s wheat acreage is forecast to decrease further as farmers prefer oilseeds and dry conditions affect winter wheat. * Ukraine’s wheat output remains steady but is below pre-conflict levels. * The outlook reflects generally favourable conditions in several key regions despite overall declines.
2. https://www.finance-monthly.com/us-tariff-ruling-china-export-window/ - * A US Supreme Court ruling limits presidential authority to impose tariffs, reducing tariffs on Chinese goods to about 22.3% from 32.4%. * The decision creates a short-term opportunity for Chinese exporters to increase shipments to the US. * US introduced a 150-day global tariff of 10%, but overall tariffs remain less restrictive than during previous trade disputes. * Chinese firms are accelerating exports while tariffs are temporarily reduced, though long-term strategies focus on diversification. * China’s export sector has shifted towards emerging markets following trade tensions, with US exports decreasing by about 20% in 2025.
3. https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-war-west-asia-summer-temperatures-inflation-crude-oil-10575808/ - * Energy prices surged due to war in West Asia, with Brent crude oil reaching $120 per barrel on March 9. * Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a major inflation in global prices, especially impacting India, which imports roughly half its oil through this chokepoint. * Qatar halted LNG production, leading India to ration gas supplies to industrial sectors. * The Indian Meteorological Department forecast a hotter-than-normal summer with prolonged heatwaves, harming wheat crop yields. * Climate change has made India’s hottest days 1.5-2°C hotter since the 1950s. * A combined impact of geopolitical instability and climate change may lead to higher food prices in 2026, as seen in 2022. * Short-term mitigation measures include reducing diesel taxes, boosting diversified oil and gas imports, and implementing heat-action plans.
4. https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/west-asia-war-digest-march-10-iran-israel-us-india-oil-lng-supply-halt-126031000396_1.html - * The conflict in West Asia is causing disruptions across various sectors in India, including fertilisers, energy, and manufacturing. * Global oil prices, such as Brent crude, surged briefly, influencing inflation, import bills, and current account deficit in India. * Fertiliser prices for urea, DAP, and LNG are rising, affecting subsidy bills and domestic availability. * The government is prioritising LPG supply for households, impacting industrial usage. * There are increased cyber threats linked to geopolitical tensions, prompting defensive measures in IT firms. * The war's long-term implications include potential disruptions to trade, capital flows, and input costs. * Policymakers are adjusting strategies, including oil procurement and fuel supply controls, to manage the crisis impact.
5. https://www.producer.com/markets/war-in-iran-sends-farmers-fuel-fertilizer-costs-soaring/ - * The Iran conflict has impacted crude oil, natural gas, and fertiliser markets, raising input costs for farmers. * The conflict has led to disruptions in the Persian Gulf, a key logistics route, affecting global oil trade. * Fertiliser prices, especially urea, have risen significantly due to supply constraints linked to the war. * US farmers forecasted to plant less corn and more soybeans, influenced by rising input prices. * Oil prices have increased from expectations of oversupply to over $81 per barrel amid tensions.
6. https://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/eu-countries-raise-alarm-over-strait-of-hormuz-blockade - • The Strait of Hormuz, a major waterway for oil, gas, and fertilisers, has been blocked for a week due to regional conflict. • Governments and lobby groups in Italy, Ireland, and Hungary express concerns over trade disruptions. • The blockade affects maritime trade, fertiliser prices, and exports of perishable goods. • Ireland warns of fertiliser price surge impacting planting season and food exports. • Italy's Coldiretti highlights damage to agri-food exports, especially perishable products. • Hungary plans to renew fuel price caps amidst rising oil prices.
7. https://www.morningagclips.com/afbf-calls-for-intervention-to-prevent-food-supply-shocks/ - * U.S. farmers face potential food supply shocks due to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and impacts on fertilizer availability and prices. * The American Farm Bureau Federation urged President Trump to intervene with recommendations for safeguarding fertilizer shipments. * The analysis highlights the vulnerability of global fertilizer exports, with nearly half of urea and 30% of ammonia exported from Gulf countries. * Potential consequences include crop shortfalls, food security threats, and inflationary pressures. * Recommendations include US Navy assistance and leveraging federal tools to secure fertilizer supply chains.
8. https://spudsmart.com/optimizing-fertility-in-the-face-of-high-fertilizer-prices/ - * Farmers in North America face higher fertiliser prices due to geopolitical instability and energy costs. * Disruptions include Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade embargoes, and restrictions from China impacting fertiliser trade. * The article advises farmers to optimise fertiliser application based on soil testing and local research. * Emphasis on improving nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) via improved practices and technologies. * Suggests testing fertiliser strategies on your own fields with check strips and yield monitoring.
9. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/30-cut-in-natural-gas-supply-to-fertilizer-firms-may-affect-urea-output/article70727022.ece - • The Indian government announced a 30% cut in natural gas supply to fertiliser producers, potentially reducing urea production from 24.78 lt to as low as 18 lt. • Stock levels of urea and other fertilisers remain adequate for the current season, with imports filling supply gaps. • Order under the Essential Commodities Act prioritises natural gas allocation to fertiliser sector after LPG, PNG, and CNG. • Domestic fertiliser stocks are sufficient to meet agricultural demand during the Rabi 2025–26 season. • The government and industry stakeholders monitor and manage fertiliser availability amid global supply concerns.
10. https://www.billionaires.africa/2026/03/10/aliko-dangotes-fertilizer-company-sees-order-surge-as-iran-conflict-shuts-key-global-supply-route/ - *Global fertiliser markets face disruption due to Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure. *Dangote Fertilizer's Lagos plant becomes a key supply source amid rising demand. *Prices for urea and ammonium have spiked in Egypt and the US. *Africa's dependency on imported fertiliser is highlighted, with plans for increased local capacity. *The conflict risks additional global price pressures and supply shortages in fertiliser.
11. http://louisiana.statenews.net/news/278913504/roundup-us-probes-fertilizer-makers-as-iran-war-pushes-farmers-cost-higher - * The U.S. Justice Department opened an antitrust investigation into major fertilizer producers amid rising prices. * Fertilizer prices increased over 60% between 2021 and early 2026, with nitrogen fertiliser up 95% and potash over 70%. * The probe targets firms including Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch, and Yara International for potential price-fixing. * Market concentration and supply disruptions related to Iran's conflict are linked to price surges. * Farmers are adjusting planting decisions due to higher input costs, with possible reductions in corn planting acreage.
12. https://propakistani.pk/2026/03/10/pakistan-conducts-emergency-review-of-food-fertilizer-reserves-to-avert-crisis/ - * Pakistan conducted an emergency review of food and fertiliser supplies due to regional conflicts affecting shipping routes and energy supplies. * Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar and Food Security Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain led meetings on export pathways, storage, logistics, pricing, and distribution. * The Fertilizer Review Committee discussed measures to ensure uninterrupted supply and prevent hoarding. * Authorities are monitoring global and local markets to safeguard food security. * Timing: conducted recently, context of escalating Middle East conflict, location: Pakistan, sector: agriculture and food security.
13. https://www.ontariofarmer.com/market/middle-east-conflict-sends-shock-waves-through-global-fertilizer-markets - * Global fertiliser markets experience volatility due to conflict in the Middle East, affecting production and trade routes. * Disruptions include the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting roughly one-third of fertiliser trade. * Prices have surged by up to 35%, reaching three-year highs amid supply concerns. * Major exporters such as Arab Gulf countries, China, Iran, and Russia face supply issues. * Logistical challenges and rising costs impact fertiliser availability for farmers worldwide.
14. https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/your-shopping-bills-are-going-up-heres-why-4285333 - * The conflict in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz threaten global oil, gas, and fertiliser exports, affecting UK farmers and food prices. * US and UK officials anticipate increased inflation and higher consumer prices as energy and fertiliser costs rise. * Experts warn of potential shortages for British farmers during planting season due to disrupted supply chains. * UK government and farmers’ union discuss long-term strategies to mitigate energy shocks.
15. https://caribbeannewsglobal.com/hormuz-shipping-disruptions-raise-risks-for-energy-fertilisers-and-vulnerable-economies/ - - Military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz disrupts shipping flows of oil, liquefied natural gas, and fertilisers. - Energy markets responded with Brent crude prices rising above $90 per barrel. - Shipping costs for oil tankers and marine fuel are increasing due to higher freight rates and insurance premiums. - About one third of global seaborne fertiliser trade passes through the Strait, affecting access for poorer countries. - Developing economies may struggle with added price shocks amid high debt burdens and rising borrowing costs.
16. https://www.xataka.com/ecologia-y-naturaleza/te-preguntas-que-te-tendria-que-importar-que-pase-iran-tenemos-respuesta-cesta-compra - • The conflict near the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted gas deliveries and affected one-third of the world's urea, crucial for fertiliser production. • Fertiliser prices in the US have increased from $400 to over $600 per tonne in a week. • Spain, as the second-largest fertiliser market in the EU, depends heavily on imports, with natural gas costs impacting fertiliser prices. • Food prices are expected to rise, affecting cereals, meat, dairy, oils, fruits, and vegetables. • Limited immediate impact if the conflict lasts weeks, but prolonged disruption could significantly worsen global food inflation.
17. https://www.producer.com/markets/oilseed-war-premium-depends-on-duration-of-the-conflict/ - * The conflict between the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has affected commodity markets since February 28. * The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed, impacting global oil and petroleum trade. * Crude oil futures rose by over US$20 per barrel, trading above $75. * Petroleum products like gasoline, diesel, distillates, and liquefied natural gas are also affected. * Fertiliser prices have jumped, with significant exports of sulphur, urea, ammonia, DAP, and MAP from the Persian Gulf. * Increased fertiliser prices are expected for the 2026 crop due to limited supply and higher demand. * Rising oil prices have positively impacted vegetable oil markets, including soybean oil and canola. * Canola prices increased nearly 2.3%, trading above C$700 per tonne. * The duration of the conflict and Strait closure will determine how long the war premium persists, with disruptions over one to two weeks causing significant shortages.
18. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/03/10/nation/essential-goods-disrupted-iran-war/ - * The Iran conflict is disrupting supply chains and affecting the price and availability of commodities crucial to the global economy, including fertilisers. * The conflict has led to increased prices in aluminium (+8% this month) and affected the trade of urea, sulphur, and helium. * Disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz impact fertiliser production, particularly in the Middle East. * Rising input costs may lead to higher consumer prices and impact global food security. * Experts highlight potential significant effects on agricultural sectors and food costs.
19. https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/stocks/story/stocks-to-watch-as-lpg-supply-issue-hits-10-sectors-full-list-520032-2026-03-11?utm_source=rssfeed - * Ongoing disruption in West Asia has caused force majeure notices across India's LNG value chain, impacting sectors reliant on natural gas and LPG. * Several sectors including fertilisers, ceramics, chemicals, food services, auto, consumer durables, and oil and gas are experiencing operational constraints and rising input costs. * Specific companies such as Paradeep Phosphates, Coromandel International, Kajaria Ceramics, Sapphire Foods, and GAIL face supply disruptions or potential supply cuts. * The sector's vulnerability is linked to geopolitical tension, with imported ammonia and gas derivatives affected by shipping and supply route issues. * The event could impact manufacturing, logistics, and consumer sectors, with potential spillover on global commodity prices and Indian industry margins.
20. https://www.farms.com/ag-industry-news/fertilizer-costs-could-rise-this-planting-season-316.aspx - * Global tensions in the Middle East create uncertainty for fertilizer and energy markets before US planting in 2026. * Countries in the Persian Gulf account for significant shares of urea and ammonia exports, affecting global supply. * Disruptions in energy and natural gas supplies can influence fertilizer prices and availability. * US farm production costs are under pressure due to rising fertilizer and fuel prices. * Farmers may adjust crop choices or face higher costs if supply disruptions occur.
21. https://qazinform.com/news/world-food-programme-warns-of-rising-hunger-amid-middle-east-escalation-64a1bf - * The WFP warned of increasing hunger due to supply chain disruptions, rising costs, and declining household purchasing power. * The conflict and geopolitical tensions are affecting global supply chains, particularly fertilizer supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz. * Rising oil prices and transportation costs are exacerbating food insecurity and impacting the costs of WFP’s operations. * The escalation in the Middle East is contributing to global food security issues and potential inflationary pressures.
22. https://nairametrics.com/2026/03/09/dangote-fertilizer-sees-global-demand-surge-amid-iran-war-disruptions/ - * Dangote Fertilizer reports a significant rise in global demand due to US-Israel-Iran conflict disruptions. * The conflict has caused shortages and supply chain risks, increasing buyers' interest in Dangote’s products. * Approximately 37% of the company’s output is exported to the United States. * The US‑Israel‑Iran war began on February 28, 2026, affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. * Dangote plans to expand production capacity with new units and a $2.5 billion plant in Ethiopia.
23. https://www.channelstv.com/2026/03/10/fertiliser-prices-surge-from-iran-war/ - • The US-Israeli war on Iran has caused fertiliser costs to rise, with a 30% increase in urea prices in early March. • About 33% of the world's fertilisers transit through the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has halted since the conflict began. • Increased fertiliser costs are contributing to economic stress for US farmers, with some delaying purchases or shifting crop focus. • Regional chaos and maritime blockades threaten fertiliser imports from the Middle East, risking crop shortfalls. • The surge in input costs and low crop prices create a "double-whammy" for American agriculture, raising concerns over future output.
24. https://investorsking.com/2026/03/10/iran-conflict-disrupts-fertiliser-supply-boosts-demand-for-dangote-products/ - * Disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, caused by Iran-Israel-US tensions, affect global fertiliser supply. * Increased demand for Dangote Fertiliser in Lagos as supply gaps emerge, with buyers seeking alternative producers. * The conflict began in late February 2026, involving military actions by the US and Israel and retaliatory Iran responses. * Dangote fertiliser plant in Lagos produces about three million tonnes annually, exporting 37% of its output. * The supply squeeze may strengthen Dangote’s position and lead to capacity expansion aimed at reducing Africa’s dependence on imports.
25. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/weathers/spring-early-summerlike-warmth-for-most-big-changes-underway-across-the-far-north/ - * Across the Corn Belt, flooding along the White River in Indiana, with historic water levels in April 2025. * Warm, dry conditions dominate most of the US, with some snow showers in Montana and scattered thunderstorms in Oklahoma. * The South experiences warm, dry weather aiding fieldwork; some regions remain extremely dry. * Western US sees limited rain and snow, mainly in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with dry conditions elsewhere. * Arizona’s barley emergence as of latest USDA/NASS report is 61%, with 15% headed. The article discusses current US weather patterns, flooding events, and their potential impacts on agriculture, particularly in the context of recent rainfall and seasonal fieldwork activities.
26. https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/economy/story/west-asia-conflict-supply-price-disruptions-impact-several-commodities-beyond-crude-oil-519742-2026-03-09?utm_source=rssfeed - * The West Asia crisis impacts supply and prices of crucial goods including fertilisers, aluminium, and plastics in India. * India’s fertiliser imports are expected to increase by 41% in FY26, with Middle East suppliers accounting for nearly 40% of imports. * Fertiliser import prices have risen 20% amid supply constraints, with potential impacts on the upcoming Kharif season. * Gulf region supplies 75% of aluminium exports, with force majeure declarations affecting supply chains. * Polymer prices for packaging materials have surged, with increased volatility in spot markets. * Industry stakeholders are working to manage supply disruptions during the conflict.
27. https://www.esmmagazine.com/supply-chain/farmers-see-fertiliser-price-surge-as-iran-war-blocks-exports-threatening-losses-307273 - * The war in the Middle East has caused fertiliser export disruptions and shipping route closures, impacting global supply. * Fertiliser prices have increased significantly, with US prices rising from $516 to $683 per tonne. * Fertiliser plants in Qatar and the Middle East have halted production due to natural gas supply cuts. * India, China, and Australia are experiencing tight fertiliser supplies due to this conflict and pre-existing market restrictions. * Price forecasts suggest further increases if the war persists, affecting farmers' crop choices and costs.
28. https://www.esmmagazine.com/supply-chain/soaring-oil-prices-raise-questions-over-future-food-and-fertiliser-costs-307280 - * Oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel following geopolitical conflicts, disrupting oil shipments. * Energy costs, including gas prices and diesel, have increased, impacting UK trade and agriculture. * Concerns raised over potential effects on fertiliser supply and costs, linked to rising energy prices. * G7 finance ministers plan to discuss releasing emergency oil reserves amid price surge. * Countries' oil reserves vary, with China and Japan holding sufficient stocks, and India facing shorter supply durations.
29. https://noticiasdeangola.co.ao/tensao-no-medio-oriente-pode-encarecer-fertilizantes-e-pressionar-estrategia-agricola-de-angola/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=tensao-no-medio-oriente-pode-encarecer-fertilizantes-e-pressionar-estrategia-agricola-de-angola - * O agravamento do conflito no Médio Oriente, incluindo o encerramento do Estreito de Ormuz, causa subida nos preços de energia e fertilizantes. * Os preços da ureia, fertilizante amplamente utilizado, aumentaram de cerca de 475 dólares para entre 520 e 550 dólares por tonelada em uma semana. * Angola, que importa a maior parte dos fertilizantes utilizados, pode enfrentar aumento de custos agrícolas, impactando culturas como milho, arroz e hortícolas. * Elevações nos custos podem reduzir margens, atrasar campanhas agrícolas ou diminuir a área cultivada. * Impacto na inflação alimentar é provável, devido ao aumento dos custos de produção e transporte marítimo. * Concerns sobre a disponibilidade de fertilizantes, dado o tempo de transporte de 30 a 45 dias, com risco de atrasos na chegada às campanhas agrícolas. * A situação evidencia vulnerabilidades na dependência global de energia, fertilizantes e logística marítima, destacando a necessidade de cadeias de valor mais resilientes em Angola.
30. https://www.morningagclips.com/prolonged-iran-war-could-shrink-us-corn-acres-analysts-say/ - * The conflict in the Middle East escalates, impacting global fertiliser and fuel prices, with US fertiliser costs rising from $516 to $683 per metric ton. * US farmers may alter crop choices, reducing fertiliser-intensive crops like corn in favour of soybeans. * Analysts project a decrease of about 1 to 1.5 million acres in US corn planting, and an increase in soybean acreage. * Crop prices, including wheat, soybeans, palm oil, and corn, surge due to energy and fertiliser costs, and supply disruptions. * The conflict's impact on fertiliser and energy prices influences planting decisions and international crop markets.
31. https://www.ttnews.com/articles/crop-prices-jump-iran-war - * Crop prices, including wheat, corn, and soybean, increased following the Middle East conflict. * Disruptions to crude oil and fertiliser supplies, particularly via the Strait of Hormuz, drive up costs. * Vegetable oils such as palm and soybean oil surged, with palm oil up 4.6% in Kuala Lumpur. * The conflict is expected to impact energy, fertiliser, and crop-based biofuel markets. * Market analysts anticipate a sustained shift higher in food and agricultural input prices.
32. https://www.eenews.net/articles/usda-watches-fertilizer-market-as-iran-war-spikes-prices/ - * USDA officials are monitoring fertiliser market prices due to shipping delays caused by the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. * Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has halted shipments of raw materials including urea, nitrogen, and phosphate. * The US administration is concerned about potential price gouging by fertiliser companies. * Middle Eastern countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia supply significant raw materials for US fertiliser production. * The conflict and shipping delays threaten fertiliser supply and increase costs for US farmers.
33. https://www.rfdtv.com/middle-east-conflict-shocks-energy-markets-and-disrupts-trade-flows-raising-key-costs-for-farmers - * Tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupt global energy and fertiliser markets. * Oil prices, including Brent crude, hit their highest since 2022, increasing costs for diesel and refined fuels. * Rising energy costs threaten farm operating margins and impact transportation and fertiliser availability. * The Department of Justice examines fertiliser industry pricing, with potential implications for fertiliser costs. * Geopolitical tensions could affect grain markets if the conflict spreads beyond the Gulf region. * U.S. advocates push for year-round E15 to mitigate fuel price risks, while Brazil considers increasing biodiesel blending.
34. https://lanouvelletribune.info/2026/03/guerre-en-iran-jackpot-pour-dangote-qui-ravit-la-vedette-aux-pays-arabes/ - * Depuis le déclenchement du conflit israélo-américain contre l’Iran, la demande pour Dangote Fertiliser à Lagos a augmenté, selon Bloomberg. * Le conflit perturbe le Détroit d’Ormuz, affectant un tiers des approvisionnements mondiaux en engrais. * Les producteurs iraniens d’engrais ont interrompu leur production d’urée et d’ammoniac, impactant la chaîne d’approvisionnement mondiale. * Dangote Fertiliser, avec une capacité de production importante au Nigeria, devient fournisseur de substitution pour des acheteurs du Golfe. * Le prix de l’urée a augmenté aux États-Unis, au Brésil et au Moyen-Orient, en réponse à la crise.
35. https://www.oneindia.com/india/after-lpg-supply-shock-will-food-shortage-be-next-hormuz-crisis-could-hit-farmers-worldwide-8021865.html - * Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz threaten to disrupt oil, natural gas, and fertiliser shipments globally. * LPG supply disruptions in Indian cities highlight the fragility of energy supply chains. * Restrictions could lead to increased fertiliser prices, reduced crop yields, and higher food prices. * Major fertiliser exporters depend on natural gas; potential shipping restrictions could impact global markets. * Food security concerns intensify due to crop yield reductions from fertiliser shortages.
36. https://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/durch-die-hormus-blockade-droht-auch-eine-lebensmittelkrise_f020a34e-2d2d-48a5-a601-2700eca30ea4.html - * The Iran conflict has increased risks for the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global shipping and energy markets. * A disruption in fertiliser production could threaten crops like wheat, maize, and rice due to reliance on natural gas for synthesis. * Approximately 30% of global urea exports originate from the Middle East, vulnerable to operational disruptions. * The high energy costs have already led to a significant increase in fertiliser prices, affecting European agriculture. * Consumers in Germany may face higher food prices, especially for gas-dependent crops like vegetables, despite stable domestic output.
37. https://www.foodsecurityportal.org/node/3808 - * The FAO Food Price Index increased in February after five months of decline, driven by rising cereal, meat, and vegetable oil prices. * Wheat prices increased due to cold weather concerns in Europe and the US, along with disruptions in Russia and the Black Sea region. * Vegetable oil prices reached their highest since June 2022, influenced by strong global demand and low Southeast Asian production. * Fertiliser prices increased in February, impacted by seasonal demand, limited availability, geopolitical tensions, and trade policies. * Natural gas prices were mixed; European prices rose due to U.S.-Iran tensions, while North American prices fell due to high U.S. production and demand decline.
38. https://globalnews.ca/news/11721872/fertilizer-iran-supply/ - * The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in the Middle East affects global energy and fertilizer trade, with Iran threatening vessels. * The Strait handles one-third of global energy and fertiliser trade, impacting supplies such as urea, nitrogen, sulphur, and phosphates. * Fertilizer prices and supply disruptions pose risks for farmers preparing for next season, with Canadian potash production being significant but not fully insulating them. * Rising costs and supply chain concerns, including potential impact on freight and energy imports, are affecting Canadian agriculture. * Previous tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to challenge fertilizer industry stability.
39. https://www.ontariofarmer.com/news/farm-news/war-ups-fertilizer-prices - * The war in the Middle East, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz, has shut down fertilizer plants and disrupted shipping routes. * This has affected export supplies from the region, impacting global markets. * Europe, China, India, and Australia are likely to face more shortages due to the conflict. * Qatar Energy halted production at its urea plant following attacks on LNG facilities. * Sulfur output in the Middle East has also been reduced.
40. https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/09/trump-iran-war-strait-hormuz-fertilizer-food-prices/ - * The US and Israel's military campaign against Iran impacts Middle East fertiliser production, causing prices to spike. * The conflict disrupts transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for fertiliser and LNG, affecting global exports. * Rising natural gas prices, a key input for fertiliser, are linked to the war's escalation, further increasing costs. * The US farmers face higher fertiliser prices and supply uncertainties amid existing economic pressures. * Industry warns of lower crop yields and food security risks due to fertiliser shortages and high prices.
41. https://drgnews.com/2026/03/09/american-farm-bureau-federation-middle-east-tensions-raise-spring-planting-concerns/ - * Middle East tensions add uncertainty to global energy and fertiliser markets as US farmers prepare for spring planting. * Disruptions in the Persian Gulf region could impact nitrogen fertiliser supplies, including urea and ammonia. * Nearly 49% of global urea and 30% of ammonia exports originate from Gulf countries, mainly Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. * Energy costs, driven by oil and natural gas prices, influence fertiliser production and transportation, affecting US farm input costs. * US farmers are considering crop shifts and reducing fertiliser usage due to potential supply constraints and rising costs.
42. https://www.bobsguide.com/how-is-the-red-sea-crisis-destabilising-global-commodity-flows/ - * The “dual-chokepoint” crisis in March 2026, involving the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, disrupts energy markets and commodity trade. * The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz after US-Israeli strikes on Iran causes Brent crude to surge from $66 to $82 per barrel. * European gas prices double, exceeding €65/MWh, amid drone strikes on Qatari LNG facilities. * Supply of 33% of global fertiliser urea halted due to Hormuz restrictions, threatening crop yields. * Gold reaches $2,171/oz as safe-haven investments increase; US-Iran conflicts escalate. * US launches “Project Vault” to stockpile critical minerals amid strategic mineral competition. * Fintech sector adapts by integrating real-time geopolitical data and exploring on-chain real-world assets. * The crisis underlines global supply chain fragility and the need for resilient infrastructure and intelligence.
43. https://alkambatimes.com/from-the-strait-of-hormuz-to-african-markets-how-the-persian-gulf-region-conflict-could-deepen-food-insecurity/ - * A conflict in the Persian Gulf threatens global supply chains, especially affecting energy and fertiliser markets. * Disruptions in shipping and energy prices may cause increases in agricultural input costs, impacting food prices worldwide. * Fertiliser prices have surged from $516 to $683 per metric tonne following regional conflicts. * Africa, heavily reliant on imported fertiliser and food, faces intensified risks of higher costs, reduced yields, and food insecurity. * Longer shipping routes and higher fuel costs due to rerouted vessels add to supply chain pressures, particularly impacting African markets.
44. http://www.adaderana.lk/news.php?nid=119500 - * The war in Iran poses risks to global fertiliser and raw material supplies due to regional conflict. * Approximately 25-35% of global trade in fertiliser raw materials passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed. * Iran is the fourth-largest exporter of urea, with exports affected by the conflict. * Prices for Egyptian urea and sulphur have increased significantly amid the conflict. * Attacks on regional energy infrastructure could further reduce fertiliser production inputs.
45. https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/26/03/51146306/exclusive-were-past-real-disruption-teucrium-cgo-war-fuels-food-inflation-fears - * The U.S.-Iran war could increase food prices due to higher farm operating costs and biofuel demand. * Trading volume in certain ETF funds surged to their highest since 2022 in March. * Higher oil prices are boosting demand for biofuels, impacting corn and soybean oil prices. * Fertilizer supply disruptions are caused by shutdowns and reduced output from key plants, raising supply risks. * Potential reductions in crop yields and acres, especially for corn, may emerge in the next season due to fertiliser shortages.
46. https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-international/2026/03/09/LOFE4DRY3ZALZOIOBDFDEOXYE4/ - * The Strait of Hormuz closure due to armed clashes impacts global fertilizer supply chain. * China faces shortages of sulfur and nitrogen fertiliser, risking reduced grain harvests. * Fertiliser prices in China have already increased due to supply disruptions. * Urea, supporting half of global food output, also facing supply issues. * Experts warn ongoing disruptions could cause significant food price surges and humanitarian crises.
47. https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/09/trump-iran-war-strait-hormuz-fertilizer-food-prices/ - * The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has disrupted the Middle East’s fertiliser production and transit routes, notably the Strait of Hormuz.* Fertiliser prices had already been high, with further increases expected during spring planting.* Disruptions in the energy sector, including halted natural gas exports, threaten global fertiliser production.* The war risks elevating global food prices, especially in import-dependent Gulf nations.* The UN warns of food security impacts in Lebanon, Iran, and Gaza.
48. https://www.newsghana.com.gh/fao-warns-of-global-wheat-drop-in-2026-flags-iran-war-risk/ - * Global wheat production is forecast to decline by nearly 3% in 2026 to around 810 million tonnes, according to FAO. * The decline results from farmers in major producing countries reducing sowings due to softer crop prices and dry weather. * Russia, the EU, and the US have cut winter wheat plantings; India, Pakistan, and China show positive prospects. * The escalating conflict between the US and Iran increases risks of higher energy and fertiliser costs, affecting wheat production. * Ghana imports about 1 million tonnes of wheat annually; global supply from stocks and cereal harvests may buffer price spikes despite rising costs.
49. https://www.business-standard.com/markets/news/upl-deepak-fertilisers-srf-upl-slip-up-to-6-percent-amid-west-asia-jitters-fertiliser-stocks-chemical-126030900302_1.html - * Fertiliser stocks declined up to 6% amid geopolitical tensions in West Asia. * Major fertiliser companies including Deepak Fertilisers, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals, and others saw declines. * Input costs and export revenues for Indian chemical firms could be affected by unrest in West Asia. * India relies on West Asia for 30% of key raw material imports; supply chain disruptions are possible. * Increased international prices for urea and di-ammonium phosphate, along with LNG supply issues, may impact manufacturing costs and subsidy needs.
50. https://www.thepigsite.com/news/2026/03/bunge-weighs-alternative-shipping-routes-amid-middle-east-conflict - * Global grains trader Bunge explores alternative shipping routes due to Middle East conflict. * Impact on Bunge's ocean-going vessels has been limited so far. * Disruption in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz affects grain and fertilizer trade. * Around 25% to 35% of the world’s fertilizer raw-material trade passes through the Strait. * Analysts warn closure could upend supply chains and increase production costs.
51. https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/the-war-in-iran-could-create-a-fertiliser-shock-risking-global-food-prices-and-farming/ - * Tehran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens global fertiliser supply and prices. * Disruption could delay or halt shipments of ammonia, urea, and LNG, impacting agriculture. * Fertiliser reliance is significant for countries like India, Brazil, and the US, with low self-sufficiency. * A fertiliser shock could reduce crop yields and increase food insecurity worldwide. * The crisis would affect energy and food security, with long-term impacts on global agriculture.
52. https://www.albertafarmexpress.ca/markets/southern-prairies-brace-for-dry-spring-after-below-normal-winter/ - * A series of clipper-style weather systems caused a dry winter across the Prairies, with northern Alberta and Saskatchewan receiving above-average precipitation but the Peace River region and southern Prairies experiencing deficits. * The southern regions have received 10 to 50 millimetres below average, compounding previous shortfalls, raising concerns for 2026 crop development. * Spring temperatures are forecast to be warm in the south, near normal in the north, with overall precipitation expected to be near normal but insufficient to offset deficits. * The region is in relatively good shape overall entering the 2026 planting season, but the key will be spring rains and timely precipitation in the south and Peace River area.
53. https://www.actionforex.com/contributors/fundamental-analysis/632545-crude-oil-hits-120pb/ - * US crude oil spiked to $120 per barrel before retreating to around $107; Brent crude peaked at $113. * Oil prices remain above $100 as geopolitical tensions escalated following Iran’s appointment of Khamenei’s son as Supreme Leader. * Middle East conflict risks, including Strait of Hormuz closure, threaten global energy supplies and inflation. * US natural gas up 6%; European TTF futures tied to energy prices likely to open lower. * US Strategic Petroleum Reserve reduced to 415 million barrels, limiting buffer capacity. * Oil prices are expected to fluctuate at elevated levels for weeks or months, influencing inflation and economic growth. * US jobs report showed job losses, rising unemployment, and accelerated wages, impacting Federal Reserve rate expectations. * Market fears of further energy-driven inflation pressure global yields and Asian markets; gold declines amid disrupted flows. * Disruption of nitrogen fertiliser trade from Gulf region threatens global food prices and food security, impacting CPI and inflation outlooks.
54. https://www.beefcentral.com/news/diesel-jumps-50c-as-hormuz-closure-rattles-fuel-and-fertiliser-supply/ - * Diesel prices have increased from around $1.70 to $2.20 per litre due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. * Farmers report difficulty in sourcing diesel and urea, with supply delays and price fluctuations. * Fertilizer Australia and Nutrien highlight ongoing disruptions to urea supply, linked to global trade flow issues. * Australian growers are urged to report price gouging and contact suppliers regarding contracts. * The situation affects Australian grain planting and national food security, with concerns over prolonged disruptions.
55. https://www.business-standard.com/industry/agriculture/traders-fear-wheat-prices-may-fall-below-msp-in-2026-27-on-surplus-stocks-126022400873_1.html - * Traders and farmers are apprehensive of wheat prices dropping below the MSP of Rs 2,585 per quintal during the 2025-26 season in India. * Surplus stocks and government interventions through OMSS are influencing market dynamics, risking MSP's effectiveness. * The government has recently approved wheat exports of 2.5 million tonnes, despite low global price parity. * Market mechanisms like OMSS are selling wheat below economic cost and MSP, generating subsidies and impacting farm-gate prices. * Surplus stocks, resulting from over-procurement, influence policy decisions and may lead to market distortions in 2026-27.
56. https://capitolskyline.com/canada-us-trade-ottawa-signals-tariffs/ - * Canada’s finance minister indicated US tariffs are unlikely to be lifted in the near term, suggesting a prolonged period of structured trade costs. * The US continues to impose tariffs, including a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with an extension period of 150 days. * Approximately 75% of Canadian exports are destined for the US, making trade policy shifts highly significant for Canada. * US trade negotiations may involve accepting higher tariffs as leverage while seeking reciprocal access in sectors like dairy and agriculture. * Canada aims to diversify exports beyond the US, with a goal to double non-US exports in the next decade, focusing on metals and automotive industries. * Limited expectation of tariff removal in the short term, with ongoing legislative and trade policy adjustments likely.
57. https://sigmaearth.com/india-prepares-for-intense-march-heat-raising-concerns-over-key-crops/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=india-prepares-for-intense-march-heat-raising-concerns-over-key-crops - * India anticipates above-normal temperatures in March, especially in northern and northwestern states. * Temperatures are forecast to be at least 7°C above normal, affecting crops like wheat and rapeseed. * Critical growth stages of these crops may be negatively impacted, risking yield reductions. * Wheat and rapeseed were planted on record land, but heat stress could reduce future production. * The heat event could influence global wheat demand and exports, mirroring impacts seen in 2022.
58. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/wheat-wilts-on-profit-taking-dollar-strength/ - * Wheat prices fell due to profit taking, technical selling, and a stronger dollar. * US forecasts indicate some beneficial precipitation but do not fully reverse drought conditions. * Weather issues are affecting European and Black Sea region crops; Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts shipping. * US wheat export inspections are below previous year, but the pace is still ahead of last year. * Saudi Arabia purchased 794,000 tons of wheat without revealing origins. * Global weather and geopolitical factors influence wheat supply outlooks.
59. https://www.business-standard.com/opinion/editorial/preparing-for-heatwaves-timely-and-multi-pronged-policy-responses-needed-126030300997_1.html - * The article discusses the impact of weather volatility, particularly heatwaves and rainfall deficiency, on wheat production in India, citing 2022 as a recent example. * Severe rainfall deficits were recorded in Punjab, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh in February, affecting crops. * Heatwaves are increasing demand for irrigation, cooling, and water resources, straining infrastructure. * Public health risks associated with heatwaves, especially among vulnerable groups, are highlighted. * Policy recommendations include agro-meteorological advisories, crop-insurance, flexible procurement norms, and market monitoring. * The IMD forecasts a hot season that could disrupt livelihoods and growth, calling for proactive responses.
60. https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-3-6-wheat-prices-firm-as-weather-risks-in-india-and-us-challenge-global-grain-abundance - * Wheat prices have increased in early 2026 due to weather-related risks in India and the U.S. * Unseasonable heat in India and drought conditions in the U.S. Great Plains have caused volatility * Traders and companies like ADM and Bunge are benefiting from increased trading activity * Broader grain stocks remain high, but wheat stocks-to-use ratio is at a seven-year low * Future risks include potential late spring freeze in the U.S. and ongoing geopolitical shipping tensions
61. https://www.millingandmillers.com/from-oil-to-rice-heres-how-middle-east-crisis-may-spread-across-global-economy/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=from-oil-to-rice-heres-how-middle-east-crisis-may-spread-across-global-economy - * The Middle East conflict is ongoing, and its ripple effects are impacting global trade, energy supplies, and food production. * Disruptions include delayed shipments, disrupted shipping routes, and spiked prices for critical inputs. * Energy markets are central, with concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz affecting oil and natural gas prices. * The conflict risks increasing inflation, especially in Europe and Asia, and affecting economic growth. * Export disruptions are affecting countries like India, with significant rice export implications. * Fertiliser supplies are threatened, impacting global food production. * Shipping congestion and supply chain delays are emerging, with effects on air cargo and global trade flows.
62. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/why-fertilisers-could-be-the-wars-soft-underbelly-victim-10571937/ - * India expected to import significant quantities of urea, DAP, MOP, and complex fertilisers in 2025-26. * Major share of India’s fertiliser imports, especially urea and DAP, comes from Gulf Cooperation Council countries. * India’s dependence on imports extends to natural gas and key raw materials for fertiliser production. * Russia, China, and Western Asian countries are key suppliers, with geopolitical conflicts impacting supply chains. * Stock levels of fertilisers have improved but remain vulnerable to future disruptions if the war extends. * Potential closure of Strait of Hormuz could severely affect LNG, ammonia, and sulphur supplies. * India may need to seek alternative sources for key inputs if conflict worsens.
63. https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/pasaulyje/6/2825239/nuozmus-musis-uz-fronto-rusija-liepsnose-skandina-ukrainos-uostus-ir-laivus - • From autumn 2025, Russia increased attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports, including missile and drone strikes. • Over 651 port infrastructure objects have been damaged since 2024, with 325 in 2025. • Attacks targeted port facilities, ships, and energy infrastructure, causing significant damage and disruptions. • Ukrainian exports through Black Sea ports declined by 8% in late 2025, affecting the country's foreign currency income. • Russia's systematic strikes aim to weaken Ukraine’s export potential, particularly in agriculture and metallurgical products.
64. https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/03/08/le-blocage-du-detroit-d-ormuz-menace-de-fortes-perturbations-le-marche-des-engrais-et-les-importations-agricoles-au-moyen-orient_6670011_3234.html - * The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since 28 February has raised concerns over logistical flows, affecting oil, gas, and agricultural sectors. * Approximately 33% of the world's maritime transport of fertilisers passes through the Strait of Hormuz. * 252 containers of French apples, weighing around 5,000 tonnes, are waiting to be unloaded in the Gulf region. * Shipping companies have introduced a surcharge of 4,000 dollars per container, adding to the existing freight costs. * The disruption impacts the supply of key fertiliser components such as urea and ammonia, vital for agriculture in the Middle East.
65. https://yemenat.net/archives/420867 - * UN programme reports escalating food insecurity in Yemen, with 63% of households unable to meet basic needs. * The report is from February 2026. * Food imports via Red Sea ports reached highest levels in nine years in January 2026, due to traders stockpiling before Ramadan. * Fuel imports through Hodeidah port decreased by 65%.
66. https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiye-drops-urea-tariffs-to-shield-farmers-from-fertilizer-shock-3215818 - * Turkey eliminated customs duties on urea fertilizer imports to prevent rising costs for farmers and stabilise supply following Iran conflict-related disruptions. * The move aims to curb potential increases in food prices and support domestic agricultural input availability. * Global urea supply was affected by tensions in the Middle East, high shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz, and export halts by regional producers. * Fertiliser prices increased by over 30%, prompting Turkish farmers to buy more fertiliser amid rising costs. * Major suppliers to Turkey include Oman, Egypt, Qatar, and UAE; imports totalled 2.5 million tons valued at $1 billion in 2025.
67. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/gaza-hit-food-shortages-and-price-hikes-after-israel-shuts-crossings - * The US-Israel war on Iran and Gaza's crossing closures led to food shortages and soaring prices in Gaza. * Market indicators show increased costs for vegetables, oil, and other essentials, impacting residents’ livelihoods. * Gaza's dependency on border crossings for supplies has resulted in immediate market shortages and economic deterioration. * Israeli crossings into Gaza were halted, with some limited reopening, affecting aid and food entry. * Residents express fears of famine and criticism of the war's impact on Gaza, citing economic collapse and suffering.
68. https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/fertilizer-stocks-to-keep-an-eye-on-march-7th-2026-03-07/ - * The article lists seven fertilizer companies to watch, including CF Industries and Nutrien. * It explains these companies manufacture, distribute, or sell fertiliser and crop-nutrient products. * Fertiliser stocks are influenced by crop prices, seasonal planting, input costs (notably natural gas), and global trade. * The companies had high trading volumes recently, indicating market interest. * It notes CF Industries, Nutrien, Mosaic, Intrepid Potash, Lsb Industries, CVR Energy, and CVR Partners' activities in fertiliser and related sectors.
69. https://www.egyptindependent.com/egypt-scales-up-strategic-readiness-in-energy-and-food/ - • Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly inspected Egypt’s energy and food security infrastructure in Suez amidst regional conflict. • Focus on maintaining surplus reserves for energy and staple commodities. • Visited Sumed Petroleum Port to oversee LNG regasification and ensure gas supply. • Reviewed national grain reserves at Ataka Wheat Silos to reinforce food stockpiles. • Aim to prevent shortages and market instability due to global supply disruptions.
70. https://www.kristv.com/news/local-news/in-your-neighborhood/san-patricio-county/san-patricio-county-farmers-prepare-for-uncertain-season-ahead - * Farmers in San Patricio County prepare for an uncertain harvesting season amid drought conditions and global supply issues. * Costs for fertiliser and other inputs have increased significantly, impacting profitability. * Disruptions due to conflicts abroad, including issues with Mexico and the Middle East, contribute to higher fuel and fertiliser prices. * Farmers emphasise the importance of community support and resilience in facing these challenges. * The farmers secured fertiliser before recent global conflicts, but costs remain high.
71. https://www.tsln.com/news/farm-bureau-farmers-worried-about-war-related-energy-costs/ - * American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall states farmers are worried about increased volatility in fertiliser and fuel prices due to military action. * Farmers face reports of fertiliser companies freezing sales amid upcoming planting season. * Energy market shocks and reliance on fertiliser supplies from the Persian Gulf are identified as serious concerns. * White House and congressional staff have been alerted; price gouging condemned. * The issue relates to global food production and supply chain stability.
72. https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/2026/03/07/farmers-again-caught-in-geopolitical-crossfire - * Canola prices fluctuated following trade developments between China and Canada. * Canada's diplomatic efforts in India aimed at boosting agricultural exports. * Escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz threatens global fertilizer and fuel supplies. * Key nitrogen fertilizer production facilities have shut down due to conflict-related natural gas shortages. * Fertilizer prices were at historical highs last autumn and are likely to remain costly due to reduced supplies. * Securing safe passage for shipments through Hormuz is difficult amid military tensions. * Public opinion in the US shows opposition to war, affecting geopolitical decisions. * Farmers across North America face rising fertiliser costs and supply uncertainties due to geopolitical instability.
73. https://www.themirror.com/news/us-news/farmers-brace-fertilizer-shock-trumps-1723450?int_source=mantis_rec&int_medium=web&int_campaign=more_like_this - * The Iran conflict disrupts global nitrogen fertiliser supply, affecting US farmers. * QatarLNG shutdown reduces almost a fifth of the world's natural gas supply and increases fertiliser prices. * Middle East nations' production constraints threaten global urea and ammonia supplies. * Higher fuel costs and rerouted shipping increase logistics costs for fertiliser supply. * US farmers face potential fertiliser shortages and price hikes before spring planting.
74. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/03/07/world/how-the-iran-conflict-is-disrupting-global-trade/ - * The US and Israel launched an air assault on Iran, triggering retaliatory strikes and disruptions since last Saturday. * Merchant shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased by over 85% between March 1-6, with some transits under blackouts. * Major disruptions to shipping and air traffic are causing market effects, including higher gasoline and fertiliser prices. * About 20% of global oil and LNG flows pass through the Strait; prices for Brent crude and LNG have risen. * Fertiliser production has been cut globally, raising prices, with potential future impacts on crop yields and food security. * Over 27,000 flights were cancelled in the region, affecting high-value and time-sensitive cargo. * Energy exporters are seeking alternative routes; some refineries have shut down, affecting the global energy supply.
75. https://www.miragenews.com/fao-food-price-index-climbs-after-5-month-1632748/ - * The FAO Food Price Index increased in February, ending a five-month downward trend. * Higher wheat prices were driven by frosts in Europe and the US and disruptions in the Russian Federation and Black Sea region. * Vegetable oil prices, including palm oil and soy, rose due to demand and seasonal outputs. * Meat prices, especially ovine and bovine, reached all-time highs, supported by US and Chinese demand. * Dairy prices declined, mainly due to lower cheese prices, despite increased milk powder quotations. * Sugar prices decreased significantly amid expectations of ample global supplies.
76. https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/headlines/3829384-record-wheat-procurement-target-set-for-2026-27-rabi-season - * The Indian government announced a wheat procurement target of 30.3 million tonnes for the 2026-27 Rabi season. * Wheat output is expected to reach 120 million tonnes, supported by sowing on 33.41 million hectares and favourable weather. * The Food Corporation of India plans to maintain a stock of 18.2 million tonnes by April 2026. * India lifted a four-year ban on wheat exports, authorising an initial shipment of 2.5 million tonnes. * A QR code tagging pilot on foodgrain packaging is underway, with successful trials in Andhra Pradesh.
77. https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2026/03/06/860869.htm - * The Iran conflict has led to the closure of fertilizer plants and disruption of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, causing a surge in global fertiliser prices. * Fertiliser prices in the US increased from $516 to $683 per metric ton amid the conflict. * Production cuts in Qatar and other Middle Eastern regions have reduced supply, affecting global exports. * India and other countries are experiencing tight fertiliser supplies due to reduced regional output. * Market analysts forecast further price increases if the conflict persists, impacting farmers' crop choices and costs.
78. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-war-hormuz-closed-fertiliser-b2933574.html - - Tehran moves to restrict or close the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global shipping and energy markets. - Closure could cause a fertiliser shock, reducing supply and raising prices, threatening global food security. - Fertilisers, essential for crop yields, rely heavily on natural gas from the Persian Gulf, especially via ammonia production. - Disruption could delay fertiliser shipments, affecting planting and crop yields worldwide. - Low fertiliser use in some regions could worsen food insecurity if prices rise further. - A prolonged closure would impact both energy exports and fertiliser availability, risking inflation and social unrest.
79. https://www.producer.com/crops/iran-war-to-disrupt-urea-and-sulphur-supplies/ - • The war in the Middle East impacts global sulphur and urea supply chains, with 50% of sulphur exports and 34% of urea shipments originating from the region. • Urea prices have increased by about 30%, while sulphur prices have not yet responded. • Disruptions include damage to production facilities in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, and Iran, along with shipping challenges via the Strait of Hormuz. • The conflict affects natural gas and oil production, crucial for ammonia and sulphur supply, with significant implications for global fertilizer markets. • Key importers like China, Morocco, Indonesia, India, and South Korea face potential shortages of fertiliser components.
80. https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/russian-drone-strikes-panama-flagged-cargo-ship-carrying-corn-near-ukraines-chornomorsk-port/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=russian-drone-strikes-panama-flagged-cargo-ship-carrying-corn-near-ukraines-chornomorsk-port - * A Russian drone struck and damaged a Panama-flagged cargo vessel transporting corn near Ukraine's Chornomorsk port in the Black Sea late Wednesday. * The vessel was hit while departing the port and was sailing toward the Bosphorus Strait. * One crew member was injured, but the ship continued its voyage. * Ukraine remains a key exporter of grain, with the Black Sea ports crucial for maritime cargo movement. * Russia has increased attacks on Ukraine’s maritime infrastructure, impacting logistics and security in the Black Sea region.
81. https://www.canadiancattlemen.ca/daily/fertilizer-markets-tighten-as-russian-exports-hit-capacity-limits/ - • Russian fertiliser producers face supply constraints due to export caps, Ukrainian attacks, and domestic obligations. • The Ukrainian drone attack on Dorogobuzh temporarily reduced Russian fertiliser capacity by about five per cent. • Russia aims to capture 25 per cent of global fertiliser trade by 2030 amid export restrictions and geopolitical tensions. • Disruptions in the Middle East and Strait of Hormuz have impacted global shipping routes and supply. • Prices are rising due to phosphate shortages, export restrictions, and geopolitical tensions.
82. https://blog.tradewin.net/ieepa-tariff-update-refund-implementation-paused-refund-strategy-still-critical - • US Court of International Trade issued a order on March 6, 2026, pausing immediate refunds of IEEPA tariffs imposed by CBP. • The order reflects operational concerns rather than legal authority issues. • CBP plans to adjust ACE for refund applications within 45 days; mechanics of refunds remain unresolved. • Importer actions such as registration, reviewing ACE data, and filing protests remain critical amid ongoing tariff volatility. • US trade policy continues to shift with other statutory tools like Section 122 and Section 232 measures.
83. https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/global-food-prices-rise-for-first-time-in-5-months-fao/ - - Global food prices increased in February after five months of decline, according to FAO. - Wheat prices rose due to frosts in Europe and the US and logistical disruptions in Russia and the Black Sea region. - FAO forecasts a 3% drop in wheat production for 2026, with reductions in EU, Russia, and US sowing areas. - India’s wheat outlook remains favourable due to record sowings, supported by government incentives. - Global cereal production in 2025 is estimated to be a record 3,029 million tonnes, up 5.6%.
84. https://readthejoe.com/business/us-iran-conflict-just-added-fresh-pressure-to-an-expected-2-5-rise-in-food-prices/ - * The US-Iran conflict has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil and fertiliser exports. * Fertiliser prices in Middle East surged from ~$130 to $575–$650 per tonne. * QatarEnergy halted sulphur, ammonia, and urea output following a drone strike. * Farmers are entering peak fertiliser season, risking significant yield reductions. * Experts warn of potential food price increases and crop yield declines due to supply shocks. * A prolonged Strait closure could lead to crude oil prices exceeding triple digits.
85. https://e24.no/energi-og-klima/i/7p6kdo/frykter-prissjokk-paa-gjoedsel-dobbeltsmell - • Rising gas and fertiliser prices caused by Middle East unrest and shipping uncertainties in Hormuz Strait. • Norwegian fertiliser company Yara describes it as a 'double blow' for the market. • Norway's Felleskjøpet temporarily halts fertiliser sales amid market uncertainty. • Gas prices have doubled, affecting fertiliser production costs globally. • Market volatility and geopolitical tensions threaten global food supply and fertiliser availability.
86. https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/mar/05/iran-conflict-sends-farmers-rushing-to-secure-crit/ - * The conflict in the Middle East leads to disruptions in fertiliser supply and soaring prices worldwide. * Farmers rush to secure fertilisers, with prices rising significantly, especially for urea. * Supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz are threatened, impacting global fertiliser supply. * European and Asian fertiliser producers face increased costs and potential shortages. * The disruption risks escalating food inflation and impacts crop yields and planting decisions globally.
87. https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/dry-cargo/bulkers/expanding-iran-conflict-threatens-brazil-grain-exports-fertiliser-supplies - * The conflict in the Middle East could disrupt Brazil's grain exports and fertiliser supplies. * The region is a key destination for Brazil's exports and a supplier of fertilisers like urea. * US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent attacks may cause cancellations and shortages. * Shippers consider unloading grain in Oman to avoid maritime disruptions, with uncertain logistics. * The situation may lead to cancellations and fertiliser shortages in Brazil.
88. https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2026/mar/05/iran-war-disrupting-supply-chain/ - * The Iran conflict has halted oil tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global supply chains. * Around 4% of the world's shipping tonnage is idle in the Persian Gulf, causing ripple effects worldwide. * The US proposed a plan to facilitate oil and trade movement, including naval escort and risk insurance. * Disruptions are affecting the shipment of oil, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and fertilisers. * Air cargo is constrained due to closed airspaces and airports, increasing costs and rerouting in the region.
89. https://www.farmersguide.co.uk/business/finance/middle-east-conflict-will-energy-fuel-and-fertiliser-prices-rise/ - * Events in the Middle East, including US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, could disrupt fertiliser raw material shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global supply. * Wholesale fuel prices in England and Wales have risen up to 20p per litre amid market volatility. * UK farming organisations warn of short-term price instability and advise farmers to manage fuel and energy usage proactively. * No definitive impact on UK prices or supply was predicted in the medium term. * Steps suggested include monitoring fuel tank levels, consolidating deliveries, reducing engine idling, and maintaining machinery for efficiency.
90. https://www.xataka.com/magnet/seguramente-nunca-oiste-hablar-urea-misiles-iran-estan-destruyendo-su-produccion-eso-va-a-afectar-a-tu-comida - * The conflict in Iran is disrupting fertiliser production, impacting global food supply. * The war affects production in Iran and Qatar, key fertiliser producers. * Fertiliser supply disruptions may reduce crop yields by up to 50% in affected cycles. * The increase in fertiliser costs is driven by energy prices and infrastructure damage. * A prolonged disruption could lead to a global food crisis, similar to 2022.
91. https://businessday.ng/agriculture/article/fertilizer-prices-may-spike-as-iran-bans-food-agricultural-exports/ - * Iran announced a ban on exports of all food and agricultural products, escalating a conflict involving Israel and the US. * The ban threatens to disrupt Iran's fertilizer production and shipping, risking higher crop input costs and food inflation. * Iran exported fertilisers worth $169.11 million to Nigeria in 2022, with imports projected to rise in 2026. * Prices for granular urea in Egypt have increased by $60 per metric ton following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. * Farmers in the Northern Hemisphere are preparing to apply fertilisers, and the conflict may drive up prices and impact global food costs.
92. https://www.gbnews.com/money/strait-of-hormuz-crisis-uk-food-inflation-higher - * Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz may lead to increased global energy prices, affecting UK grocery costs. * Higher fuel and electricity costs could increase food production and transportation expenses. * Fertiliser prices, linked to natural gas exports from the Middle East, pose additional costs for farmers. * Food inflation in the UK could rise from 3.5-4% to 4.5-5%, with an increase of around 15-20% relative to current levels. * Shipping disruptions include vessel pauses, insurer withdrawal, and rising freight rates, impacting supply chains.
93. https://lafarmbureaunews.com/news/2026/3/4/farmers-impacted-by-fuel-and-fertilizer-volatility - * American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall comments on potential fertiliser and fuel supply issues following military action in Iran.* * Concerns from farmers about increased volatility in fertiliser and fuel prices.* * Reports of companies freezing fertiliser sales during planting season.* * Emphasis on the reliance of farmers on Persian Gulf fertiliser supplies and the potential impact of energy shocks.* * Discussions with White House and congressional staff on the situation, with warnings against price gouging.*
94. https://www.agri-mutuel.com/politique-economie/les-marches-agricoles-spectateurs-du-conflit-au-moyen-orient-inquietude-sur-les-engrais/ - * The markets for cereals and oilseeds are currently cautious due to the Middle East conflict. * Price fluctuations are limited, with some support from investment funds and currency movements. * The conflict has raised concerns about the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz affecting fertiliser exports. * US and European grain markets show limited movement, with stable stocks and favourable weather conditions. * Fertiliser prices have surged, raising concerns over supply and agricultural margins.
95. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/grassley-middle-east-instability-already-driving-up-farm-expenses/ - - U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley warns that Middle East conflict is increasing fertilizer and fuel costs for farmers. - Urea prices in New Orleans have risen from $475 to $550 per ton within a week. - The Strait of Hormuz is a significant route for urea used in corn production. - Rising diesel prices are also impacting farming costs. - The conflict's impact suggests increased input costs for agriculture.
96. http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/famine-incoming-about-one-fourth-of-all-globally-traded-nitrogen-fertilizer-normally-travels-through-the-strait-of-hormuz/ - *Approximately one-quarter of globally traded nitrogen fertiliser supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently paralysed due to Iran-related conflicts.* *The disruption threatens global food security, as about half of worldwide food production relies on fertiliser, which depends on natural gas and ammonia produced via the Haber–Bosch process.* *Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia have surged, with Qatar declaring force majeure on LNG shipments, significantly affecting Asian importers.* *Fertiliser prices are already high and expected to increase further, impacting farmers and global crop yields.* *If the conflict persists, a major famine and decline in global food production could occur, with severe consequences for impoverished nations."
97. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/slow-lower-midweek-session-for-soybeans-corn-wheat/ - * Soybeans declined due to fund and technical selling; quality concerns in Brazil, awaiting USDA and CONAB reports.* * Corn fell on fund and technical selling; weather conditions in South America and input costs in the US are key factors.* * Wheat prices dropped on fund and technical selling; rain in US and Europe, and disruptions in Ukraine and Iran's shipping impact export demand.*
98. https://www.realagriculture.com/2026/03/spring-fertilizer-supply-fears-grow-as-iran-war-chokes-key-shipping-route/ - * The Iran conflict has raised concerns over fertiliser supply and prices, as key export routes in the Strait of Hormuz are threatened. * Prices of urea and nitrogen fertilisers have increased since the conflict escalated. * Supply chain disruptions mean delays and uncertainties for farmers in North America. * US and Western allies are working to secure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz. * Farmers are advised to communicate with suppliers and consider storage to mitigate potential shortages.
99. https://ilmanifesto.it/il-blocco-di-hormuz-un-rischio-alimentare - * The Strait of Hormuz is a conflict zone involving Israel, the US, and Iran, affecting food and energy markets. * It is a major route for nutrients fertilisers, impacting global agriculture, particularly in Europe. * Blockages could reduce crop yields and increase prices, similar to oil price rises. * Supply chains for fertilisers, mainly from Russia and Belarus, are disrupted due to the war. * The European dependence on external supplies exposes farmers and consumers to inflation and food security risks. * Italy perceives this issue as significant and relates it to broader strategic concerns about food security in times of crisis.
100. https://www.kaaltv.com/news/farmers-face-rising-fertilizer-costs-as-conflict-continues-in-iran/ - * The conflict in Iran disrupts the supply of nitrogen fertiliser, affecting prices and availability. * Disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz and shutdowns of natural gas production impact fertiliser supplies. * Rising costs of urea, a key agricultural fertiliser, are worrying farmers in Minnesota. * The period of disrupted supply coincides with farmers preparing for spring planting. * Limited clarity on the duration of supply chain disruptions, with ongoing pressure on farmers' margins.
101. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/05/big-burden-for-farmers-gulf-shipping-crisis-threatens-food-price-shock - * The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to conflicts affects global fertiliser supply and production. * Disruption impacts the transport of ammonia and nitrogen, key ingredients in synthetic fertiliser. * Fertiliser prices have already increased, with Egyptian urea prices rising over 25%. * The supply chain disruptions could lower crop yields and push up food prices globally. * Farmers in the UK, Europe, and North America face supply shortages and increased input costs amid rising fertiliser prices. * Industry leaders and analysts warn of severe implications if the strait remains restricted long-term.
102. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/5359890 - * Iran's blockade of the Hormuz Strait disrupts over 33% of fertiliser and raw material shipments, including sulphur and ammonia, impacting global supply. * The strait also transports essential materials for aluminium and sugar, with potential price effects on clothing, cookware, and medical equipment. * A prolonged closure could cause fertiliser prices to rise significantly in the US, affecting crops like corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton. * US farmers face potential fertiliser shortages and higher prices as nearly 30% of ammonia and 50% of urea production are at risk due to ongoing conflict. * The disruption may lead to further economic and supply chain consequences globally, especially if the situation persists over a month.
103. https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/890679/world-food-program-halts-operations-in-rebel-held-yemen-after-terminating-staff-contracts - * The World Food Program terminates contracts of 365 staff in Houthi-controlled Yemen, effective end of March. * The move follows arrests of aid workers by Houthi authorities and funding pressures. * The suspension impacts humanitarian aid to millions suffering from food insecurity in Yemen. * Yemen’s ongoing conflict, insecurity, and donor funding decline hinder relief efforts. * Over 17 million Yemenis face acute food insecurity, risking worsening malnutrition and famine conditions.
104. https://www.newarab.com/news/wfp-warns-sudan-faces-total-food-collapse-april - * The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned Sudan faces a potential total food collapse by April due to rations being cut by up to half. * Urgent funding of $6 million is needed to prevent the collapse, with aid already having been reduced since January. * Displaced populations in camps face severe hunger, malnutrition, and poor water and sanitation conditions, especially after the fall of El-Fasher to RSF in October 2025. * Food aid for 62,634 people was scaled back by 50-70% in the most affected areas. * The crisis is compounded by ongoing conflict, with displacement from Darfur and Kordofan, and limited access to water, medicine, and sanitation.
105. https://www.bakingbusiness.com/articles/65527-soft-wheat-areas-dormant-in-drought - * The US Department of Agriculture reported that 41% of dormant US winter wheat was in drought as of January 13, with lingering drought in many states. * Drought conditions were limited in eastern Colorado and south-western Kansas, key wheat production areas. * Oklahoma’s Panhandle and parts of Montana showed no drought, while other states had varying drought severity. * Large drought areas affected northeastern Ohio, central Indiana, Illinois, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina. * Overall, drought conditions impact winter wheat growth in major US regions, particularly the Central states and southeastern soft winter wheat areas.
106. https://anytvnews.com/news/south-sudan-concern-over-increase-in-violence-urge-to-provide-food-aid-route/ - * The UN and WFP have called for an end to violence and for food aid delivery in Jonglei province, South Sudan. * The military is engaged in a major operation, causing displacement of 1.8 lakh people and threats to food security. * 60% of the population may face crisis-level hunger; 93 lakh people in need of humanitarian aid. * The UN Secretary-General urged political dialogue to resolve conflict and allow aid delivery. * WFP plans to aid 3.3 million people in 2026 amidst challenging terrain and weather conditions.
107. https://www.czapp.com/analyst-insights/cold-weather-risks-spark-wheat-rally-pulling-corn-higher/ - * Wheat rallied due to winter kill risks in the US and Russia, with weather concerns dominating the market last week. * Corn was supported by cold weather forecasts in the US and Russia, and strong weekly sales, with prices expected to trade in a specified range. * Market sentiment shifted from supply abundance to weather-driven concerns, especially regarding winter kill potential. * China’s soybean purchases and trade tensions also influenced broader grains, supporting soybean and grain prices. * Weather forecasts include very cold conditions across major wheat-growing regions, raising winter kill fears.
108. https://www.thefencepost.com/news/usda-to-buy-452-million-in-commodities-for-food-aid/ - * USDA plans to enter an agreement with the UN World Food Programme to deliver up to $452 million in FY 2025 Food for Peace aid. * The aid includes 31,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat among other commodities to seven countries. * The programme aims to support global food security and aid delivery, benefiting American farmers and international recipients. * The transfer of administration from USAID to USDA is expected to support U.S. wheat farmers and promote food security. * Additional awards and commodities are anticipated, with a focus on vulnerable countries.
109. https://www.onecitizendaily.com/index.php/2026/02/05/humanitarian-services-under-fire-as-wfp-suspends-operations-following-food-looting/ - * The World Food Programme (WFP) suspended operations in Baliet County after a convoy was ambushed and looted in Upper Nile State, South Sudan. * The attack involved 12 boats carrying 1,500 metric tons of food and occurred between January 30 and February 1. * WFP also paused activities in Jonglei State due to violence damaging infrastructure and endangering aid delivery. * The suspension threatens food supplies for nearly 4.2 million people, especially before the rainy season. * The organisation calls for protection of humanitarian workers and immediate government action to recover stolen food and ensure safety.
110. https://www.zawya.com/en/business/commodities/wheat-dips-as-us-dollar-finds-its-footing-still-set-for-weekly-gain-p9sfc2ba - * Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures fell 0.5% to $5.38-3/4 a bushel as the US dollar steadied, but remained on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain due to recent decline in the dollar and cold weather threatening crops in major production regions. * Wheat rose 1.7% from last week’s close after reaching an eight-week high earlier in the week. * Cold weather forecasts for Ukraine and other agricultural regions threaten winter crops, with Ukraine experiencing a temperature drop starting February 1. * Export prices in Russia rose for the second week due to bad weather at Black Sea ports, which may impact wheat deliveries. * Rains in western Argentina improved soil moisture for crops, but additional rainfall is needed to prevent yield losses.
111. https://www.businesstoday.in/india/story/february-to-be-hotter-drier-this-year-says-imd-winter-crops-may-be-affected-514118-2026-02-02?utm_source=rssfeed - * India Meteorological Department forecasts warmer and drier February following an unusually warm January. * Conditions may increase risks for winter-sown crops, including wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas. * Main wheat-growing regions such as Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh are most affected. * Higher temperatures may shorten crop growing periods and reduce yields. * Crops sown in January include a record 33.42 million hectares of wheat. * Potential impact on India’s cooking-oil imports due to possible rapeseed crop reductions.
112. https://www.onecitizendaily.com/index.php/2026/02/09/western-powers-demand-south-sudan-recover-1500-tons-of-looted-food/ - * A coalition of Western nations issues a demand to South Sudan to recover over 1,500 metric tons of stolen food aid. * The call follows the looting of twelve WFP boats in Upper Nile State. * The shipment was intended to feed 73,000 people facing famine, malnutrition, and conflict. * The Western powers condemn attacks on humanitarian and medical facilities and urge action to ensure aid passage. * The international community closely monitors South Sudan's response amid worsening humanitarian conditions.
113. https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/dry-cargo/bulkers/logistics-disruptions-keep-ukraine-wheat-exports-at-low-levels-union-says - * Ukraine's wheat exports in February remain low, with only 27,000 tonnes exported out of 700,000 contracted, according to the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation (UAC). * Logistics issues caused by blackouts and port restrictions due to Russian strikes are impacting exports. * Ukraine is a major global wheat exporter, and ongoing conflicts are limiting export capacity. * Russian strikes targeting Ukrainian ports and energy infrastructure are causing blackouts and restrictions on exports.
114. https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/russia-strikes-pivdennyi-port-in-odesa-causing-fires-infrastructure-damage/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=russia-strikes-pivdennyi-port-in-odesa-causing-fires-infrastructure-damage - * Russian forces launched a drone attack on Pivdennyi port in Odesa, Ukraine, on 28 January, causing fires and damaging facilities. * The attack involved 146 drones and a ballistic missile, with 103 drones intercepted. * The strike damaged industrial and railway infrastructure, with no casualties recorded. * Other Ukrainian regions, including Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, experienced damage and injuries. * Russia’s targeting of Ukraine’s seaports aims to disrupt exports, particularly agricultural shipments.
115. https://www.farmersweekly.co.nz/markets/global-dynamics-continue-to-shape-fertiliser-prices/ - * The fertiliser market is affected by global geopolitics, supply chain issues, and trade restrictions. * Strong demand for nutrients like urea and constrained supply from major regions keep prices high. * Export restrictions from China and reduced Russian exports impact supply and prices. * Energy costs and geopolitical instability contribute to ongoing price volatility. * Market stability may occur if supply disruptions are avoided and Chinese exports resume. * Fertiliser companies, including Ballance, are diversifying sourcing and production to ensure supply.
116. https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/02/09/ukraine-grain-stuck-russian-port-strikes/ - * Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports slash agricultural exports by 20-30% monthly, leaving up to 10 million tons of grain in storage without buyers. * Ukraine established a maritime corridor after naval drones caused the Russian Black Sea Fleet to relocate from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, now carrying over 90% of exports. * The corridor is vital for Ukraine’s economy, transferring large volumes cost-effectively and being irreplaceable compared to rail and road transport. * Russia’s campaign targets port infrastructure through missile and drone attacks, aiming to reduce Ukraine’s export capacity. * Ukraine harvested 61.8 million tons of grain in 2025, with exports driven by expanded corn planting and Black Sea logistics.
117. https://www.producer.com/crops/worlds-winter-wheat-crops-look-good-for-now/ - - Winter wheat crops globally are generally in good shape, with Russia and Ukraine showing positive conditions. - Russia’s deputy prime minister reported 97% of the crop was in normal condition as of February 5. - SovEcon forecasts Russian wheat production at 83.8 million tonnes for 2026-27, down from 90.9 million tonnes last year. - Drought remains a concern in the US, with 43% of winter wheat area experiencing some level of drought. - US winter wheat planting is among the smallest since 1909, with potential implications if drought persists. - Global wheat stocks are at the highest in eight years, and US export forecasts are strong despite ample stocks.
118. https://www.michiganagtoday.com/2026/02/05/farmers-weigh-bridge-payments-against-persistent-fertilizer-costs/ - * The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a $12 billion one-time bridge payment programme for farmers. * The programme aims to help manage economic pressure from market disruptions and high input costs, including fertiliser. * Fertiliser prices, including nitrogen, phosphate, and potash, have increased, impacting profit margins. * Experts highlight concerns about demand timing shifts due to the payments potentially causing price rallies. * Some farm leaders see the payments as helpful, while others stress the need for long-term solutions.
119. https://www.croplife.com/crop-inputs/fertilizer/what-ag-retailers-need-to-know-about-fertilizer-pricing-in-2026/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=what-ag-retailers-need-to-know-about-fertilizer-pricing-in-2026 - * The article discusses ongoing volatility in global fertiliser markets and forecasts continued market turmoil into 2026. * Fertiliser prices have increased significantly compared to crop prices, with some fertilisers costing far more than previous years. * Geopolitical conflicts, particularly involving Russia, Ukraine, and China, impact fertiliser supply chains and prices. * Russia and China are major importers and exporters of fertiliser components, with disruptions affecting global markets. * Linville suggests that fertiliser prices are unlikely to stabilise shortly and that volatility will persist.
120. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8621556/wheat-falls-14-as-warmer-us-forecast-strengthens-supply-outlook - * Wheat futures declined by up to 1.4% in Chicago, reaching the lowest in nearly a week. * Updated US forecasts predict drier and warmer conditions across key wheat-growing areas. * The forecast aims to improve crop prospects and bolster global supply, amid already ample inventories. * Broader grains market also exhibited softness, indicating a general recalibration. * Limited trading activity due to holiday and market reopening factors, with exports awaiting demand signals.
121. https://www.maritimeprofessional.com/news/wheat-prices-steady-alongside-weather-415809 - * Euronext wheat edged up after a three-day fall, influenced by weather and Chicago futures rebound. * Weather events in the U.S., Ukraine, and France pose potential risks to wheat crops. * Global supply remains ample, keeping prices from rising significantly. * European wheat prices were steady, affected by currency and export dynamics. * Shipping adjustments reflect ongoing diplomatic tensions affecting French grain exports.
122. https://www.croplife.com/editorial/eric_sfiligoj/sticky-pricing-in-agriculture-why-fertilizer-wont-drop-soon/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=sticky-pricing-in-agriculture-why-fertilizer-wont-drop-soon - * Fertiliser prices have remained high and trending upward over the past 18 months, despite previous rapid declines. * The ongoing trade tariffs, export restrictions, and geopolitical conflicts, including China, Canada, and Russia, contribute to persistent high prices. * Crop prices are more volatile, rising slowly after poor conditions and dropping quickly with good news. * Fertiliser prices are unlikely to decrease in time for the 2026 spring fertiliser application season. * The article discusses the concept of sticky pricing, noting that fertiliser prices are an exception in agriculture compared to other crop prices.
123. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1145882.html - * Wheat prices in Ukraine will trend upward until at least mid-March due to reduced Black Sea supplies and logistical constraints. * Global importers may source 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes of wheat from Ukraine, Romania, and France. * Domestic market imbalance: traders contracting grain while farmers hold back sales, driving weekly price increases. * Price support factors include weather risks and frost threats. * Current prices for food-grade wheat are $215 to $220 per tonne, forecast to rise to $220 to $225 per tonne by early March. * Post-mid-March price movement depends on winter crop conditions and global market conditions.
124. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/after-4-years-india-allows-wheat-export-10531195/ - * India had banned wheat shipments on May 13, 2022, moving wheat to 'prohibited' category. * The government approved export of 25 Lakh Metric Tonnes (LMT) of wheat and 5 LMT of wheat products. * The decision aims to stabilise domestic markets and support farmers. * The ban was lifted after a comprehensive assessment of availability and prices. * This action marks a significant policy change in India's wheat export regulations.
125. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/india-relaxes-wheat-export-restrictions-to-appease-farmers/article70631410.ece - ['* India permitted exports of 2.5 million tonnes of wheat, easing restrictions imposed over three years ago.', '* The export approval aims to support farmers amid improved domestic supplies due to bumper harvests.', '* The government also approved additional shipments of 500,000 tonnes each of wheat products and sugar.', '* India had banned wheat exports in 2022 after local prices increased following a heat wave damaging yields.']
126. https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/02/09/ukraine-grain-stuck-russian-port-strikes/ - * Ukrainian naval drones caused Russia to relocate its Black Sea Fleet and established a maritime corridor along Romanian and Bulgarian coastlines. * Over 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports now pass through the corridor, which has become vital for exports. * Monthly port strikes reduce exports by 20-30%, causing significant foreign exchange losses and an projected $1 billion fall in export earnings in early 2026. * Russian missile and drone attacks targeted Ukrainian port infrastructure, including grain elevators, oil terminals, and port cranes, to weaken export capacity. * Ukraine exported $22.6 billion worth of agricultural products in 2025, representing roughly 56% of total exports and underpinning the wartime economy.
127. https://www.croplife.com/crop-inputs/fertilizer/2026-spring-fertility-leading-ag-retailers-assess-opportunities-and-challenges/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2026-spring-fertility-leading-ag-retailers-assess-opportunities-and-challenges - * Crop retailers discuss the 2026 spring fertiliser market, highlighting mixed industry forecasts. * Some see a slightly positive outlook if crop acres remain stable; others foresee cautious demand due to economic factors. * Phosphate prices have significantly increased, with reduced application rates expected in 2026. * Demand for nitrogen and potash is expected to be stable or strong, despite some supply issues. * Global geopolitical tensions and tariffs could impact fertiliser availability in 2026.
128. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wheat-rallies-close-week-222142044.html - * Wheat futures in Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis increased in price, with weekly gains reported. * Wheat export sales in the week of 12 February were down 40.99% from the previous week and 45.94% from the same week last year. * US HRW wheat is expected to face drier conditions in the coming week, with warmer temperatures forecasted in the southern US. * France soft wheat ratings are at 88% good/excellent, down 3 points from last week. * Wheat prices continued to rise in futures markets, with specific increases noted for March and May contracts.
129. https://arynews.tv/food-aid-in-somalia-could-halt-within-weeks-due-to-funding-shortages-wfp-warns - - The UN World Food Programme announced that its food and nutrition assistance in Somalia could stop by April without new funding. - Approximately 4.4 million people face food insecurity, with nearly one million experiencing severe hunger. - Assistance has decreased from 2.2 million to just over 600,000 due to funding issues. - The agency seeks $95 million to sustain operations from March to August. - The situation is linked to drought, conflict, and declining humanitarian funds, with regional impact expected.
130. https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/dry-cargo/bulkers/logistics-disruptions-keep-ukraine-wheat-exports-at-low-levels-union-says - * Ukraine's wheat exports remain extremely low in February, with only 27,000 tonnes shipped out of 700,000 tonnes contracted. * Ukraine is a major global wheat grower and exporter. * Logistics issues caused by port disruptions and blackouts are affecting exports. * Russia's strikes on Ukrainian seaports and infrastructure have worsened supply chain problems. * Ukraine is unlikely to meet its contracted wheat export volumes due to these disruptions.
131. https://activehistory.ca/blog/2026/02/24/food-insecurity-russo-ukrainian-war/ - * In 2025, global food crisis and food insecurity affect countries including Canada, Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan. * Historical context shows post-WWII aid efforts in Europe and similar patterns of food scarcity following conflicts. * Ukraine's grain exports dropped by 29% during 2022-2023, impacting trade with poorer nations. * Russia benefits economically from the Black Sea Blockade and has pursued policies towards food sovereignty since 2014. * The article compares current Ukraine conflict with WWII-era food politics and discusses the importance of food system recovery post-conflict.
132. https://www.producer.com/crops/urea-market-expected-to-remain-tight-in-2026/ - * Nitrogen fertiliser markets, particularly urea, remain tight through 2026 due to demand and export restrictions. * India’s urea sales hit a record high in December 2025; China restricts exports again in 2026. * Global supply deficits persist amid capacity additions and export restrictions, with prices rising in early 2026. * Demand, especially from India, drives market tightness; prices expected to peak and then decline. * US and EU imports increase slightly ahead of upcoming growing season.
133. https://www.jpost.com/international/article-887841 - * Approximately 6.5 million people in Somalia face acute hunger due to drought, according to government and UN reports. * Somalia declared a national drought emergency in November; other regional countries affected. * More than a third of those malnourished are children; thousands have fled to camps in Mogadishu. * UN World Food Programme reduced its assistance from 2.2 million to just over 600,000 people. * A forecast suggests 5.5 million may remain at crisis or worse levels despite upcoming rains.
134. https://www.ksal.com/managing-fertilizer-price-volatility/ - * Kansas wheat farmers face rising input costs due to global supply issues and demand fluctuations. * Fertilizer markets are affected by geopolitics, energy supply, and international demand, especially natural gas dependency for nitrogen. * Kansas farmers can optimise fertiliser use through the Wheat Rx programme, emphasising timing, yield goals, and management tailored to local conditions. * Research shows nitrogen application can be flexible, with potential yield benefits from later fertilisation, aided by remote sensing and in-season monitoring. * Wheat cultivation supports soil health and resource efficiency, aiding sustainable farming amidst global market uncertainties.
135. https://www.rt.com/africa/633031-hunger-risis-hits-somalia-un/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS - * Somalia’s drought has caused a hunger crisis affecting 6.5 million people, including 1.8 million children, with urgent humanitarian aid needed. * The October-December cereal harvest in southern Somalia was 83% below the long-term average. * Large-scale displacement and livestock reduction are linked to the worsening drought conditions. * Officials warn that conditions may worsen without increased international support. * Somalia has previously experienced severe droughts, such as in 2017, which caused widespread food shortages.
136. https://gcaptain.com/ukraines-grain-iron-ore-exports-hit-by-russian-strikes-on-ports-this-winter/ - * Russian airstrikes on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports in late 2025 have reduced export capacity by up to 30%.
137. https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/ports/feature-russian-port-strikes-dent-ukraines-grain-and-ore-exports - * Russian airstrikes on Ukraine's Black Sea ports in December reduced capacity and harmed grain and ore exports.* Ukraine's ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi are key shipping hubs for the country.* Despite attacks, Ukraine operates a maritime corridor to export goods.* Russia increased attacks following threats to cut Ukraine off from the sea.* Nearly 10 per cent of vessels hit since the war began were bulk cargo ships used for exports.
138. https://www.jurist.org/news/2026/02/un-warns-millions-at-risk-of-starvation-due-to-worsening-somalia-food-crisis/ - ['* The United Nations warned that Somalia’s hunger levels and food insecurity have nearly doubled since last year, affecting millions of children.', '* An IPC report attributes deterioration to drought, conflict, insecurity, and soaring food prices, with 6.5 million people facing food insecurity from February to March 2026.', '* Almost half a million children are likely to be severely malnourished; the drought has impacted agriculture, livestock, and displaced populations.', '* UN agencies and the Somali government called for urgent humanitarian assistance, increased funding, and investments in early warning and anticipatory actions.', "* Somalia's crisis is worsened by political instability, civil war, militant conflicts, and severe climate change effects, including droughts and population displacement."]
139. https://fullavantenews.com/ukraine-grain-iron-ore-exports-russian-port-strikes-winter/ - * Ukraine's Black Sea ports, especially Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi, have been heavily impacted by Russian airstrikes since 2022, disrupting trade. * Despite attacks, Ukraine established a maritime corridor, but port export capacity has declined by up to 30%. * Agricultural exports, which account for over half of Ukraine’s revenue, fell from 4 million to 3.7 million tons in December, with some rebound in February. * Iron ore exports declined by 8.7% in November, with further drops in January due to higher logistics costs and falling prices. * Rail infrastructure has been targeted, with over 266 strikes affecting train and rail assets, increasing transportation costs and causing delays.
140. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/south-asia/india-braces-for-unusually-hot-march-wheat-rapeseed-crops-at-risk-sources-say - * India forecasted to record its warmest March on record, with above-average temperatures in key wheat and rapeseed-growing states. * Higher temperatures during grain-filling and maturity stages could reduce crop yields, impacting overall production. * Key states such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and parts of Madhya Pradesh expected to see maximum temperatures up to 7°C above normal. * Temperatures exceeding 40°C could occur in many states by the end of March, increasing heat stress on winter crops. * The forecast poses a risk to India’s wheat and oilseed harvests, influencing global food security and exports.
141. https://www.seanews.com.tr/article/shock-decline-at-odesa-ports-capacity-reduced-by-30-mlulqpnr - * Russia's attacks on Odesa port cluster have reduced export capacity by up to 30% in early 2026. * Attacks in December 2025 damaged 13 civilian bulk carriers, affecting shipments of grain and iron ore. * Infrastructure damage and power outages have increased logistics and production pressures. * Ports operated at approximately 75% capacity in December 2025 and 84% in January 2026 amid continued conflict. * Ukraine attempts to maintain shipments via maritime corridor despite military disruptions.
142. https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/pakistan-wheat-crisis-usda-report-flour-shortage-afghanistan-conflict-2026-2875416-2026-02-27?utm_source=rss - * Pakistan may experience a wheat shortage in 2026 due to a projected decline of 2 to 2.2 million tonnes in wheat output, driven by drought and water management issues. * The drought, rainfall deficits, and delayed support price announcement have contributed to reduced sowing and yields. * Regional tensions with Afghanistan and disruptions to water flow from India are exacerbating agricultural and water management challenges. * Flour prices in Pakistan have increased, affecting affordability and risking food security. * The combination of drought, water shortages, and geopolitical issues heightens risk of food insecurity for millions in Pakistan.
143. https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-2-25-rain-in-the-plains-winter-wheat-prices-retract-as-supply-abundance-and-new-tariffs-reshape-the-2026-global-market - * Prices for US winter wheat declined in late February 2026 due to favourable weather reducing the winterkill risk premium. * Global supply surges from Russia and India, coupled with a 15% US import tariff, have contributed to market volatility. * Weather forecasts indicate increased rain in the US Plains, reducing drought concerns but raising the risk of early crop dormancy and potential freezes. * Major grain merchants like ADM and Bunge suffer margin pressures amid falling prices and trade uncertainties. * The US's 15% import tariff has created a paradoxical increase in export inspections driven by international buyers rushing to secure supplies.
144. https://www.madamasr.com/en/2026/03/02/news/u/prices-surge-in-gaza-redoubling-food-insecurity-after-israel-shuts-borders-citing-attack-on-iran/ - * Prices of staple foods in Gaza have skyrocketed after Israel announced the closure of crossings into Gaza, halting food supplies. * Market prices doubled or tripled, leading to shortages and panic buying among residents. * Gaza’s food supply and agricultural land destruction threaten a potential famine amid ongoing conflict. * Palestinian authorities have conducted inspections and detained violators, but shortages persist. * Humanitarian aid remains limited, and households struggle with reduced purchasing power and increased food insecurity.
145. https://www.canadiancattlemen.ca/daily/some-fertilizer-prices-rise-as-iran-conflict-escalates/ - - Fertiliser prices increase following Iran conflict escalation affecting supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. - Urea prices surged by up to 13% to $550 in Egypt and increased in North American imports. - Major urea exporters Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran ship through the Strait, impacting global supply. - Tight natural gas supplies from Russia exacerbate fertiliser shortages. - Potential further price rises could make fertiliser unaffordable for farmers, risking planting delays.
146. https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/ports/ukraines-grain-deliveries-to-black-sea-ports-slightly-up-in-february - * Ukraine's grain deliveries to Black Sea ports rose by 2% in February compared to January. * Total deliveries about 2 million tonnes so far in February, down 1.4% from the previous year. * Challenges include attacks on railway infrastructure and port strikes. * Strikes at Odesa port hub reduced export capacity by up to 30% from pre-war levels. * Targeted regions include Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi since 2022.
147. https://www.producer.com/crops/iran-conflict-drives-up-urea-prices/ - * Hostilities in the Middle East impact North American fertilizer prices, with urea prices rising by 11 to 17 per cent in early March. * Disruption suggests a major risk to North American urea supplies ahead of spring planting, with potential price volatility. * Urea imports from the Middle East are delayed or disrupted due to shipping complications, especially in the Strait of Hormuz. * The conflict coincides with the critical planting season for North American farmers. * The EU’s fertiliser production operates at about 75 per cent, and Chinese exports remain limited, impacting global supply.
148. https://www.farms.com/ag-industry-news/u-s-iran-conflict-poised-to-drive-fertilizer-not-just-oil-prices-higher-044.aspx - * Escalating U.S.–Iran tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to higher fertilizer costs for US farmers. * Damaged shipping and increased freight premiums due to conflict-related rerouting and delays. * Natural gas market surges, raising production costs for nitrogen fertilisers. * Middle Eastern fertiliser producers halt output, tightening global supply. * Fears of supply shortages and price hikes impacting U.S. and global fertiliser markets during the planting season. * Rising costs and logistical delays affecting farmers' procurement strategies. * The conflict adds to recent energy price increases, compounding input cost inflation.
149. https://tass.com/economy/2095259 - • Kirill Dmitriev, head of RDIF, warns that closing the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt global fertilizer and agricultural markets. • Significant shares of global flows of key fertilizer components pass through the region, including 44% of sulfur, 31% of urea, 18% of ammonia, and 15% of phosphates. • Disruptions could lead to major impacts on commodity markets and global agriculture. • The statement emphasises the region’s critical role in fertiliser logistics and supply chains.
150. https://afnews.com.br/precos-de-fertilizantes-aumentam-pela-escalada-do-conflito-com-ira/ - * Alguns preços de fertilizantes subiram após o impacto do conflito no Oriente Médio sobre os suprimentos pelo Estreito de Ormuz.* O preço da ureia no Egito aumentou até 13%, atingindo US$550 por tonelada.* A alta de preços também foi refletida nas importações para a América do Norte, com aumento de US$77 na área portuária de Nova Orleans.* Exportadores como Catar, Arábia Saudita e Irã enviam ureia pelo Estreito de Ormuz, afetando o mercado global.* Medidas prolongadas de bloqueio podem atrasar a chegada do fertilizante aos agricultores, afetando o plantio e potencialmente causando perdas na safra.
151. https://sigmaearth.com/india-prepares-for-intense-march-heat-raising-concerns-over-key-crops/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=india-prepares-for-intense-march-heat-raising-concerns-over-key-crops - * India anticipates above-normal temperatures in March, with forecasts indicating one of the warmest months of the year. * Temperatures in major wheat- and rapeseed-producing regions could surpass 7°C above normal, risking crop development. * The heat may negatively impact wheat and rapeseed yields during critical growth stages, affecting domestic and export supply. * Past heat events, such as in 2022, caused yield reductions and export bans. * Stakeholders are monitoring weather and preparing measures to mitigate heat stress on crops.
152. https://www.rfdtv.com/fertilizer-markets-surge-following-escalation-in-the-middle-east - * Fertilizer prices increased sharply following U.S. military strikes involving Iran, with urea prices rising by about $70 per ton. * Market reactions linked to potential supply disruptions due to regional instability near the Strait of Hormuz. * Fertilizer costs affect planting budgets as global supply tightens, especially in nitrogen and phosphate markets. * Geopolitical tensions and restricted exports from China contribute to rising global fertiliser prices. * Farmers are cautious about purchase timing with energy prices also rising and supply disruptions possible. * The Middle East region accounts for 40-50% of international fertilizer trade, with maritime traffic down at least 80%.
153. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/global-fertilizer-market-on-edge-as-strait-of-hormuz-closure-puts-sulfur-supply-and-phosphate-production-at-risk/ - * An economist from the Fertilizer Institute warns that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt half of global sulfur exports, affecting fertiliser production. * The potential closure could impact production of ammonium sulfate, elemental sulfur, MAP, and DAP fertilisers. * Sulfur prices tripled in 2025, and Iran's trade route closure is expected to escalate market risks. * The issue primarily affects the global fertiliser industry, with long-term implications for phosphate fertiliser production. * The trade dispute threatens sulphur supplies crucial for fertiliser manufacturing currently in peril.
154. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/wheat-wilts-on-profit-taking-dollar-strength/ - * Wheat declines due to profit taking and technical selling, with a stronger dollar impacting prices. * Forecasts predict more precipitation in U.S. hard and soft red winter wheat regions, though not enough to fully reverse drought conditions. * Weather damage is likely in Europe and the Black Sea region, with Russia's war affecting shipping. * U.S. export inspections for wheat are below last year but still ahead of the previous marketing year, with key importers including the Philippines and Tanzania. * Saudi Arabia purchased 794,000 tons of wheat, origin undisclosed, amid hotter than average weather in India affecting winter crops.
155. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/wheat-wilts-on-profit-taking-dollar-strength/ - * Wheat prices fell due to profit taking, technical selling, and stronger dollar. * Forecasts predict some beneficial rainfall in U.S. wheat growing regions, but drought conditions persist. * European and Black Sea regions may face weather damage, with Russia’s war affecting shipping. * Saudi Arabia purchased 794,000 tons of wheat with undisclosed origins. * India’s hotter weather is expected to impact winter crops, including wheat. * US export inspections for wheat were below last year, but the 2025/26 export pace remains ahead of 2024/25.
156. https://www.brecorder.com/news/40410065/gulf-conflict-hits-pakistan-fertiliser-sector-as-agritech-shuts-urea-plant - * Agritech Limited, a fertiliser manufacturer in Pakistan, shut down its urea plant due to potential force majeure on LNG supplies caused by Gulf conflict. * Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited notified Agritech of the LNG supply suspension citing Middle East war disruptions. * The LNG supply suspension impacts the company's operations from March 4, 2026, until further notice. * The conflict has also caused tanker shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global oil movements. * Oil prices have increased by 10%, with potential to reach $100 per barrel, due to the Iran conflict.
157. https://www.allagnews.com/fertilizer-costs-surge-as-geopolitical-risks-intensify-globally/ - * Fertilizer prices relative to corn values are among the worst historically, increasing financial pressure on farmers. * Urea, UAN, and anhydrous ammonia have the second-worst price relationship to corn values on record; DAP ranks tied for the third-worst. * Higher fertilizer expenses influence farm management decisions, including timing and application rates. * Geopolitical risks, especially involving Iran and China, threaten global fertilizer supply during peak season. * Markets remain sensitive to international developments, with upside risk if supply routes are disrupted.
158. https://www.allagnews.com/fertilizer-markets-surge-following-escalation-in-middle-east/ - * Fertilizer prices rose sharply after U.S. military strikes involving Iran, causing market reaction. * Urea prices surged around $70 per ton with trades earlier near $468–$457, climbing to about $550. * Market activity was led by New Orleans urea markets, signalling potential supply disruptions. * Regional exports relying on shipping lanes near Strait of Hormuz are highly sensitive to geopolitical conditions. * Rising costs impact farmer budgets, influencing purchase timing and application decisions. * Market volatility is expected to remain elevated amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
159. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/mixed-end-to-tuesdays-session-for-corn-soybeans-wheat/ - * Soybeans were mixed, mostly modestly higher, with Brazil harvest results and demand from China monitored. * Corn was mixed, mostly firm, with US exports, weather, and trade concerns influencing market view. * Wheat was mixed, with Chicago lower and other locations up, amid weather and geopolitical developments. * US ethanol production data and Brazil crop updates impacted the market outlook for grains. * Global trade and geopolitical issues, including military activity in Iran and Russia’s war, affected export conditions.
160. https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/india-urea-producers-trim-output-as-iran-war-disrupts-lng-flows-126030400849_1.html - * Indian fertiliser manufacturers cut urea production following suspension of Qatari LNG supplies amid Middle East hostilities. * Some companies, like Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Ltd., started reductions at certain plants. * Sui Northern Gas Pipelines in Pakistan also reports LNG supply disruption due to the conflict. * Indian government's fertilizer ministry states no current shortage but monitors geopolitical situation. * India considers costly imports if disruptions persist, affecting subsidy budgets and agricultural costs.
161. https://thenews-chronicle.com/fertilizer-supply-fears-grow-as-iran-halts-agricultural-exports/ - * Global fertilizer markets face supply disruptions following Iran's announcement to suspend food and agricultural exports amid regional conflict.* * The move raises concerns about supply disruptions from a key region in fertiliser production and shipping.* * Iran exported fertilisers worth $169.11 million to Nigeria in 2022, with Nigeria's fertiliser imports expected to increase in 2025.* * Prices of granular urea have reportedly risen in Egypt, and analysts warn of further price increases and global food inflation.* * Ongoing regional tensions could intensify fertiliser price hikes during peak application season.*
162. https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-436-unseasonal-war-how - * The US and Israel's war against Iran impacts global fertilizer supply, leading to surging prices of key inputs like Urea. * Qatar shut down LNG production after an Iranian drone attack, affecting 11% of global urea exports from the Gulf. * Iran controls 10-12% of global urea trade, and Israel’s emergency measures could disrupt gas supplies to Egypt. * Fertiliser prices in Egypt and New Orleans have increased significantly amid supply disruptions. * Smaller and poorer economies in Africa experience effects similar to previous gas-price crises, risking food security.
163. https://www.producer.com/crops/drought-may-expand-in-u-s-plains-this-year/ - * La Nina is expected to be largely gone by summer, with neutral ENSO conditions for the upcoming US growing season. * Drought may expand in the Plains region, with approximately 45% of US winter wheat area experiencing drought as of February 10. * Cold outbreaks could affect winter wheat in late spring, and spring flooding is unlikely. * Weather forecasts indicate warmth in the southern US and potential wetness in the eastern corn belt. * Climate models suggest a dip in jet stream may keep extreme heat at bay, but a high-pressure ridge could cause hot, dry summer conditions in the northwest.
164. https://www.wired.com/story/trumps-war-on-iran-could-screw-over-us-farmers/ - * The conflict in the Middle East, specifically US attack on Iran and drone strikes on Qatar LNG facilities, threatens global fertiliser supplies. * Qatar Energy announced halts in natural gas production, which affects nitrogen fertilisers like urea. * Prices of urea in US ports increased by nearly 15% following supply disruptions. * Nearly 30% of global ammonia production and 50% of urea exports are at risk due to the conflict. * Supply of phosphates from Saudi Arabia and other regional countries could face delays, impacting US fertiliser inputs. * Strait of Hormuz blockade and threats to ships slow energy and fertiliser exports, risking global markets.