Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: single_source_noise_floor (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-11T06:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-01 | Over the next 6h, uranium futures sentiment remains net supportive (policy + reactor build narratives outweigh isolated bearish noise). | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 57 |
| uranium | B-UR-02 | Over the next 24h, the balance of evidence favours continued bullish bias in uranium (demand-side policy support + perceived supply tightness). | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 57 |
| uranium | B-UR-03 | Supply-risk narratives are more price-supportive than supply-expansion narratives in the current signal mix. | 55 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 57 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260311-060000Z-uranium", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-UR-01", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Over the next 6h, uranium futures sentiment remains net supportive (policy + reactor build narratives outweigh isolated bearish project/company noise).", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "T-005 (energy security strategies; late-surge profile)", "T-001/T-002 (EU policy signalling around nuclear/transition)", "T-022/T-024 (US DOE/NRC policy/regulatory signalling; medium-term demand framing)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "VIP-010 (isolated negative single-source company/project item; low corroboration)", "RA-001/RA-002 (reputational/echo-risk amplification flags)" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-02", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Over the next 24h, the balance of evidence favours continued bullish bias in uranium (demand-side policy support + perceived supply tightness).", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "T-011 (geopolitical supply-chain risk framing around major producer ecosystem)", "T-009 (uranium mining sector developments; mixed but attention-supportive)", "T-014 (regulatory/innovation narrative supporting longer-run nuclear buildout)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Potential reversal risk if high-authority fresh counter-signal appears (not present in current admitted set)", "Single-source VIP items (multiple) raise noise/whipsaw risk" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-03", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Supply-risk narratives are more price-supportive than supply-expansion narratives in the current signal mix.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "T-011 (geopolitical supply-chain risk)", "Risk anomalies indicating narrative amplification risk (RA-001..RA-005)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Incremental mining/project progress signals (T-009; VIP mining items) could soften tightness framing if corroborated" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-UR-01", "B-UR-02", "B-UR-03" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "single_source_noise_floor", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source with echo-risk; increases whipsaw risk without changing net direction." }, { "flag": "authority_mix_skew_low", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Several trends note lower-tier source skew; conviction capped below high despite positive consensus." }, { "flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "low", "detail": "Policy/regulatory narratives can reverse quickly; monitor for fresh high-authority counter-signal." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "uranium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while hourly directional score stays >= +20 and contradiction_ratio <= 0.30." }, { "market": "uranium", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate if a fresh (<=2h) high-authority opposing signal appears and contradiction_ratio rises by >= 0.15 vs recent baseline." }, { "market": "uranium", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Elevate if directional_score_signed swings by >= 25 within 3 consecutive hourly buckets (headline-driven whipsaw regime)." }, { "market": "uranium", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Consider neutral stance only if directional_score_signed falls into (-20,+20) for >= 6 consecutive hours (rangebound/mixed regime)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 14, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 13, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 9, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -16, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 53, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 53, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 51, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 51, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 82, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 79, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 56, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 56, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 53, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 53, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 51, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 51, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 51, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 51, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 1, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Scope locked to single market: uranium (explicit in flight_plan).", "No explicit contradiction set provided; reversal risk is driven by noise/echo-risk and policy headline sensitivity rather than a confirmed opposing trend.", "VIP/risk anomalies contain multiple single-source items; treated as fragility drivers, not direction setters." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }