- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: silver
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_event_risk_window (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-11T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SI-01 |
Over the next 6 hours, silver futures are more likely than not to remain supported (bid) as USD softness and precious-metals risk-off flows dominate near-term positioning. |
60% |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
52 |
| silver |
B-SI-02 |
Over the next 24 hours, silver futures have a modestly higher chance of holding an upward bias than reverting to a flat/down tape, supported by ongoing industrial-demand narrative (incl. solar/electrification) and tight physical-balance framing. |
58% |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
52 |
| silver |
B-SI-03 |
Event-risk (inflation prints / rate-expectations repricing) raises the odds of a sharp intraday pullback in silver futures within 24 hours, even if the broader bias remains constructive. |
42% |
down |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
52 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis6b_silver_20260311T120000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-01",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 6 hours, silver futures are more likely than not to remain supported (bid) as USD softness and precious-metals risk-off flows dominate near-term positioning.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"precious_metals_flows",
"geopolitical_risk_premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-03"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-02",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, silver futures have a modestly higher chance of holding an upward bias than reverting to a flat/down tape, supported by ongoing industrial-demand narrative (incl. solar/electrification) and tight physical-balance framing.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"precious_metals_flows",
"mine_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-03"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-03",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Event-risk (inflation prints / rate-expectations repricing) raises the odds of a sharp intraday pullback in silver futures within 24 hours, even if the broader bias remains constructive.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"macro_event_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-01",
"B-SI-02"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-01",
"B-SI-02",
"B-SI-03"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_event_risk_window",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Near-term inflation / central-bank expectation sensitivity increases whipsaw risk for non-yielding metals."
},
{
"flag": "momentum_cooling_last_6_to_12h",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional impulse was stronger earlier in the 24h window and has since flattened, reducing momentum confidence."
},
{
"flag": "industrial_demand_substitution_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Solar supply-chain themes include efficiency/scale-up (supportive) but also continued incentive to reduce silver intensity (substitution), creating mixed medium-term demand signals."
},
{
"flag": "source_mix_quality_dispersion",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Some very recent impulses are single-source / lower-authority; conviction capped accordingly."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If USD softness persists and silver holds above recent breakout/support zones through the next macro print window, maintain a constructive monitoring bias."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If inflation / rates headlines hit (or implied rates reprice), expect outsized intraday swings versus baseline."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If USD rebounds sharply and real yields push higher concurrently, odds rise for a bullish-to-neutral (or bearish) transition."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If signals remain one-sided but sparse (no new corroborating evidence) and price action stalls, treat as rangebound/mean-reversion prone."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 35,
"acceleration_score": 35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1111,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1538,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -35,
"acceleration_score": -45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -20,
"acceleration_score": -30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1667,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -20,
"acceleration_score": -40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -20,
"acceleration_score": -40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 20,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to 'silver'; single-market constraints enforced.",
"No <=2h opposing high-authority signal detected in provided evidence; late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered.",
"Momentum marked weakening due to post-impulse flattening in the latest buckets, despite overall bullish state."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}