• subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: silver
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_event_risk_window (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-11T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-01 Over the next 6 hours, silver futures are more likely than not to remain supported (bid) as USD softness and precious-metals risk-off flows dominate near-term positioning. 60% up fading 6h false 52
silver B-SI-02 Over the next 24 hours, silver futures have a modestly higher chance of holding an upward bias than reverting to a flat/down tape, supported by ongoing industrial-demand narrative (incl. solar/electrification) and tight physical-balance framing. 58% up stable 24h false 52
silver B-SI-03 Event-risk (inflation prints / rate-expectations repricing) raises the odds of a sharp intraday pullback in silver futures within 24 hours, even if the broader bias remains constructive. 42% down accelerating 24h false 52
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis6b_silver_20260311T120000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-01",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 6 hours, silver futures are more likely than not to remain supported (bid) as USD softness and precious-metals risk-off flows dominate near-term positioning.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "geopolitical_risk_premium"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-03"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-02",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, silver futures have a modestly higher chance of holding an upward bias than reverting to a flat/down tape, supported by ongoing industrial-demand narrative (incl. solar/electrification) and tight physical-balance framing.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "mine_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-03"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-03",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Event-risk (inflation prints / rate-expectations repricing) raises the odds of a sharp intraday pullback in silver futures within 24 hours, even if the broader bias remains constructive.",
 "probability_pct": 42,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "macro_event_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-01",
 "B-SI-02"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-01",
 "B-SI-02",
 "B-SI-03"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_event_risk_window",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Near-term inflation / central-bank expectation sensitivity increases whipsaw risk for non-yielding metals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "momentum_cooling_last_6_to_12h",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional impulse was stronger earlier in the 24h window and has since flattened, reducing momentum confidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "industrial_demand_substitution_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Solar supply-chain themes include efficiency/scale-up (supportive) but also continued incentive to reduce silver intensity (substitution), creating mixed medium-term demand signals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "source_mix_quality_dispersion",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Some very recent impulses are single-source / lower-authority; conviction capped accordingly."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If USD softness persists and silver holds above recent breakout/support zones through the next macro print window, maintain a constructive monitoring bias."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If inflation / rates headlines hit (or implied rates reprice), expect outsized intraday swings versus baseline."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If USD rebounds sharply and real yields push higher concurrently, odds rise for a bullish-to-neutral (or bearish) transition."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If signals remain one-sided but sparse (no new corroborating evidence) and price action stalls, treat as rangebound/mean-reversion prone."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 35,
 "acceleration_score": 35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1111,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": -25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1538,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -35,
 "acceleration_score": -45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -20,
 "acceleration_score": -30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 20,
 "acceleration_score": 40,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1667,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -20,
 "acceleration_score": -40,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 20,
 "acceleration_score": 20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -20,
 "acceleration_score": -40,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 20,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to 'silver'; single-market constraints enforced.",
 "No <=2h opposing high-authority signal detected in provided evidence; late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered.",
 "Momentum marked weakening due to post-impulse flattening in the latest buckets, despite overall bullish state."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}