• subject_area: Natural gas futures (NG)
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NG-HEADLINE_WHIPSAW (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-11T13:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Over the next 24 hours, LNG/geopolitical disruption narratives contribute to an upside skew in natural gas futures (risk-premium bid). 58 up accelerating 24h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-002 Over the next 6–24 hours, weather/demand and storage narratives can cap rallies and produce rapid mean-reversion in natural gas futures. 46 mixed stable 6h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-003 Near-term (next 6 hours), headline-driven whipsaw risk is elevated; directional edge can flip quickly on incremental geopolitical/shipping updates. 63 mixed accelerating 6h false 62
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-NG-20260311T130000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures (NG)",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, LNG/geopolitical disruption narratives contribute to an upside skew in natural gas futures (risk-premium bid).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "LNG supply disruption / outage narratives (Qatar-linked, shipping chokepoints)",
 "Maritime/transport security signalling increasing headline volatility",
 "Broad geopolitical risk premium spilling into gas"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 6\u201324 hours, weather/demand and storage narratives can cap rallies and produce rapid mean-reversion in natural gas futures.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Meteorological demand ambiguity (warming vs cold-risk headlines)",
 "Storage/market-structure narratives (Europe/storage themes) limiting follow-through"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term (next 6 hours), headline-driven whipsaw risk is elevated; directional edge can flip quickly on incremental geopolitical/shipping updates.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Mixed authority mix and single-source VIP items alongside tier-A headlines",
 "Multiple overlapping geopolitical threads with uncertain transmission to NG fundamentals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-HEADLINE_WHIPSAW",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Headline-driven LNG/geopolitical narratives are accelerating, increasing short-horizon volatility and reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-AUTHORITY_MIX",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Signal set includes a meaningful low-authority share and multiple single-source VIP/risk-anomaly items; treat conviction as fragile."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-CROSS_REGION_TRANSMISSION",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Several drivers are cross-region (Europe/Middle East shipping/LNG); transmission into NG futures may be non-linear."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional tier-A confirmation of LNG supply disruption / constrained shipping flows within the next 6 hours without a simultaneous demand-softening counterprint."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any new high-velocity geopolitical/shipping headline cluster (<=2 hours) that materially changes the contradiction ratio."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh, higher-authority evidence indicating supply normalisation or demand deterioration that offsets the current upside-skew narrative."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Mode guard: commodities_trading accepted (flight_plan.system_mode).",
 "Target scope locked to single market: natural_gas (explicit).",
 "Contradictions list was empty upstream; contradiction_ratio treated as model-derived from mixed driver set rather than explicit contradiction objects.",
 "No high-trust <=2h opposing signal detected; late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}