- subject_area: Natural gas futures (NG)
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-HEADLINE_WHIPSAW (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-11T13:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Over the next 24 hours, LNG/geopolitical disruption narratives contribute to an upside skew in natural gas futures (risk-premium bid). |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
62 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Over the next 6–24 hours, weather/demand and storage narratives can cap rallies and produce rapid mean-reversion in natural gas futures. |
46 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
62 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Near-term (next 6 hours), headline-driven whipsaw risk is elevated; directional edge can flip quickly on incremental geopolitical/shipping updates. |
63 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
62 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-NG-20260311T130000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures (NG)",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, LNG/geopolitical disruption narratives contribute to an upside skew in natural gas futures (risk-premium bid).",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"LNG supply disruption / outage narratives (Qatar-linked, shipping chokepoints)",
"Maritime/transport security signalling increasing headline volatility",
"Broad geopolitical risk premium spilling into gas"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 6\u201324 hours, weather/demand and storage narratives can cap rallies and produce rapid mean-reversion in natural gas futures.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Meteorological demand ambiguity (warming vs cold-risk headlines)",
"Storage/market-structure narratives (Europe/storage themes) limiting follow-through"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term (next 6 hours), headline-driven whipsaw risk is elevated; directional edge can flip quickly on incremental geopolitical/shipping updates.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Mixed authority mix and single-source VIP items alongside tier-A headlines",
"Multiple overlapping geopolitical threads with uncertain transmission to NG fundamentals"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-HEADLINE_WHIPSAW",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Headline-driven LNG/geopolitical narratives are accelerating, increasing short-horizon volatility and reversal risk."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-AUTHORITY_MIX",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Signal set includes a meaningful low-authority share and multiple single-source VIP/risk-anomaly items; treat conviction as fragile."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-CROSS_REGION_TRANSMISSION",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Several drivers are cross-region (Europe/Middle East shipping/LNG); transmission into NG futures may be non-linear."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional tier-A confirmation of LNG supply disruption / constrained shipping flows within the next 6 hours without a simultaneous demand-softening counterprint."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any new high-velocity geopolitical/shipping headline cluster (<=2 hours) that materially changes the contradiction ratio."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh, higher-authority evidence indicating supply normalisation or demand deterioration that offsets the current upside-skew narrative."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 52,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Mode guard: commodities_trading accepted (flight_plan.system_mode).",
"Target scope locked to single market: natural_gas (explicit).",
"Contradictions list was empty upstream; contradiction_ratio treated as model-derived from mixed driver set rather than explicit contradiction objects.",
"No high-trust <=2h opposing signal detected; late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}