Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: Unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-LOW_AUTHORITY_MIX (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-11T13:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-24H-UP-RISKPREMIUM |
Over the next 24h, natural gas futures remain biased upward due to LNG supply-chain/geopolitical risk premium (shipping/security/disruption narratives) outweighing demand-softness signals. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
63 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-6H-CHOPPY-UPSKew |
Over the next 6h, natural gas futures show a mild upside skew but remain headline-choppy; upside sensitivity increases if supply-disruption/shipping-risk items continue to refresh. |
55 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
63 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-20260311T130000Z-natural_gas",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-24H-UP-RISKPREMIUM",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, natural gas futures remain biased upward due to LNG supply-chain/geopolitical risk premium (shipping/security/disruption narratives) outweighing demand-softness signals.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"LNG shipping/security headlines (maritime / military / transit-risk narratives)",
"Geopolitical escalation risk involving key gas/LNG-linked regions and actors",
"Supply disruption framing around LNG infrastructure and flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Weather/demand-softness narratives (warming / reduced consumption)",
"Storage adequacy narratives (EU storage / market balance framing)",
"Low-authority share in several evidence clusters increases noise risk"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-6H-CHOPPY-UPSKew",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, natural gas futures show a mild upside skew but remain headline-choppy; upside sensitivity increases if supply-disruption/shipping-risk items continue to refresh.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Late-surge maritime/security related signal refreshes",
"Rapid refresh cadence of geopolitical items (high recency weighting)",
"Market reflexivity to perceived LNG flow risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any decisive shift toward demand-destruction/weather warming dominance",
"Evidence concentration / single-source VIP items amplifying false positives"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-24H-UP-RISKPREMIUM",
"B-NG-6H-CHOPPY-UPSKew"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-LOW_AUTHORITY_MIX",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Signal mix contains a meaningful low-authority share and several singleton/VIP items; increases noise/whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-HEADLINE_WHIPSAW_GEOPOL",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Geopolitical/shipping narratives are refreshing quickly; short-horizon direction can flip on incremental headlines."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-STORAGE_WEATHER_CONTRADICTION",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Storage/market-balance and weather-demand narratives can counteract supply-risk premium; keeps reversal risk elevated."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-STALE_CONTEXT_OVERHANG",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Several supporting narratives have long original publication windows; recent refreshes may be reiterations rather than new fundamentals."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional high-authority confirmation of LNG supply disruption or sustained maritime/transit-risk escalation within the next 6\u201324h."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh, high-trust demand-softness or storage-surplus confirmation that materially offsets supply-risk premium (especially if it arrives within <=2h of prior bullish refresh)."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Rapid alternation of bullish supply-risk and bearish demand/weather items across successive hourly buckets (contradiction ratio rising)."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score compresses back into neutral band (|score| < 20) for multiple consecutive hours while evidence count stays low."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3077,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 45,
"acceleration_score": 45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2857,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -60,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3125,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 15,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 4,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: natural_gas only.",
"No explicit contradictions array provided; contradiction assessed implicitly via mixed driver arenas (weather/storage vs geopolitics/supply-chain).",
"Several signals have long original publication windows; treated as background with stale-suppression unless refreshed very recently."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}