Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: Unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-LOW_AUTHORITY_MIX (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-11T13:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-24H-UP-RISKPREMIUM Over the next 24h, natural gas futures remain biased upward due to LNG supply-chain/geopolitical risk premium (shipping/security/disruption narratives) outweighing demand-softness signals. 58 up stable 24h false 63
natural_gas B-NG-6H-CHOPPY-UPSKew Over the next 6h, natural gas futures show a mild upside skew but remain headline-choppy; upside sensitivity increases if supply-disruption/shipping-risk items continue to refresh. 55 mixed accelerating 6h false 63

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-20260311T130000Z-natural_gas",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-24H-UP-RISKPREMIUM",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, natural gas futures remain biased upward due to LNG supply-chain/geopolitical risk premium (shipping/security/disruption narratives) outweighing demand-softness signals.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "LNG shipping/security headlines (maritime / military / transit-risk narratives)",
 "Geopolitical escalation risk involving key gas/LNG-linked regions and actors",
 "Supply disruption framing around LNG infrastructure and flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Weather/demand-softness narratives (warming / reduced consumption)",
 "Storage adequacy narratives (EU storage / market balance framing)",
 "Low-authority share in several evidence clusters increases noise risk"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-6H-CHOPPY-UPSKew",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, natural gas futures show a mild upside skew but remain headline-choppy; upside sensitivity increases if supply-disruption/shipping-risk items continue to refresh.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Late-surge maritime/security related signal refreshes",
 "Rapid refresh cadence of geopolitical items (high recency weighting)",
 "Market reflexivity to perceived LNG flow risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any decisive shift toward demand-destruction/weather warming dominance",
 "Evidence concentration / single-source VIP items amplifying false positives"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-24H-UP-RISKPREMIUM",
 "B-NG-6H-CHOPPY-UPSKew"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-LOW_AUTHORITY_MIX",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Signal mix contains a meaningful low-authority share and several singleton/VIP items; increases noise/whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-HEADLINE_WHIPSAW_GEOPOL",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Geopolitical/shipping narratives are refreshing quickly; short-horizon direction can flip on incremental headlines."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-STORAGE_WEATHER_CONTRADICTION",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Storage/market-balance and weather-demand narratives can counteract supply-risk premium; keeps reversal risk elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-STALE_CONTEXT_OVERHANG",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Several supporting narratives have long original publication windows; recent refreshes may be reiterations rather than new fundamentals."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional high-authority confirmation of LNG supply disruption or sustained maritime/transit-risk escalation within the next 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh, high-trust demand-softness or storage-surplus confirmation that materially offsets supply-risk premium (especially if it arrives within <=2h of prior bullish refresh)."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Rapid alternation of bullish supply-risk and bearish demand/weather items across successive hourly buckets (contradiction ratio rising)."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score compresses back into neutral band (|score| < 20) for multiple consecutive hours while evidence count stays low."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3077,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 5,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 45,
 "acceleration_score": 45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2857,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -60,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3125,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 15,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 4,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: natural_gas only.",
 "No explicit contradictions array provided; contradiction assessed implicitly via mixed driver arenas (weather/storage vs geopolitics/supply-chain).",
 "Several signals have long original publication windows; treated as background with stale-suppression unless refreshed very recently."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}