Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-11 17:30 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B1 | Over the next 24h, copper futures sentiment is biased upward as electrification/grid-modernisation and industrial-policy narratives continue to reinforce demand expectations, with limited fresh counter-signals in the current feed. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 68 |
| copper | B2 | Over the next 6h, upside bias is present but fragile: the strongest directional support is background/persistent, while the freshest items are relatively thin and include some lower-authority/echo-risk sources. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "CIS-6B-copper-20260311T173000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T17:30:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures (HG)", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1", "market": "copper", "claim": "Over the next 24h, copper futures sentiment is biased upward as electrification/grid-modernisation and industrial-policy narratives continue to reinforce demand expectations, with limited fresh counter-signals in the current feed.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "industrial_demand", "china_policy", "inventory" ], "contradicted_by": [ "usd_strength (potential headwind; not strongly evidenced in this cycle)" ] }, { "belief_id": "B2", "market": "copper", "claim": "Over the next 6h, upside bias is present but fragile: the strongest directional support is background/persistent, while the freshest items are relatively thin and include some lower-authority/echo-risk sources.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "mine_supply", "inventory", "china_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [ "data_sparsity / authority-mix risk" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1", "B2" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "copper", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Many high-coverage narratives are older than 72h (background themes) even if still being referenced; directional conviction capped accordingly." }, { "flag": "data_sparsity", "market": "copper", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Fresh, high-authority directional items are limited versus the volume of persistent/slow-burn themes." }, { "flag": "authority_mix_low", "market": "copper", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Notable share of lower-tier/echo-risk sources in the newest bursts increases fragility and reversal sensitivity." }, { "flag": "reversal_watch", "market": "copper", "severity": "medium", "detail": "With thin fresh confirmation, any credible opposing macro/USD or demand-shock signal could flip the near-term state." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with fresh evidence count rising (next 2\u20136h) and no high-authority opposing signal emerges." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.35 or fresh evidence becomes dominated by low-authority/echo-risk sources." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "A high-trust opposing catalyst arrives within a 2h window (e.g., USD-strength shock / demand-negative China signal) causing directional score to fall back below +20." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z", 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"neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z", 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"2026-03-11T12:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 28, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 8, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 11, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior market state not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' (unknown_prior).", "No explicit bearish/contradictory trend objects were present; reversal risk is driven mainly by freshness/authority fragility rather than direct opposition.", "Stale-suppression applied because many primary trends have old timestamp_found/published dates despite continued referencing in evidence bundles." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }